TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
TSP Talk on Facebook TSP Talk on Twitter

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

TSP Talk is not affiliated with the TSP, Thrift Savings Plan, tsp.gov, frtib.gov, or any U.S. government agency or uniformed military services.

Thrift Savings Plan Talk - For Federal Government Employees and Military Personnel

Quotes, Charts, Info
TSP Share Prices & Returns
Fund Index Quotes
Market Futures Quotes
Earnings Reports
Economic Calendar

 

Premium Services

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 

Mobile Options


- Android Forum App

- iPhone Forum App

 

 Quick Link to ...
TSP Share Prices | Reader Testimonials

RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Morning Commentary

Intrepid Timer Strategies  |   TSP Talk Plus
  |   The Last Look Report

Market Commentary

February 26, 2024
 
Archives  |  Current TSP Share Prices
 
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)


After another strong open on Friday, stocks held onto some modest gains but we did see most of the indices drift lower and close near their lows of the day.  For the week, the TSP stock funds did well, although the S-fund did have a small weekly loss.  The I-fund came to life and led on the upside with the dollar down for the week.  Bonds were up big on Friday pushing the F-fund into positive territory for the week as well.

  Daily TSP Funds Return

More returns


Nvidia's earning were the highlight last week and by Thursday it turned what looked like a possible rough week for stocks into a very good week for most of the indices.  However, you know my obsession with open gaps and how they tend to get filled.  Thursday's gap up after Nvidia's earnings gives me something to worry about in the short term because, unless it's a rare "gap and go" development, open gaps tend to get filled sooner rather than later.  Friday's wishy washy close and slightly bearish candlestick may be leaning us in that direction.

            


Historically, the second half of February has been a weak period for stocks but so we have had enough catalysts, including Nvidia, this month to keep the rally going.  The weaker seasonal period has typically lasted into the first half of March before things really the bullish bias starts to perk up again and perhaps the March 20 Fed meeting will be the catalyst to make or break that tendency. 

    


However, as I often disclaim, for most of the year seasonality isn't generally a primary indicator.  February weakness has been one of the better indicators over the years, but not this year - at least so far with 4 trading days left in the month.

The Federal Reserve reduced their balance sheet by $52 billion last week.  This could be a headwind for stocks, or at the very least a possible catalyst for strength in the dollar, which can put pressure on stocks.  The balance sheet has been trending lower for over a year now so it's not always a perfect comparison, but I've noticed that stocks do seem to do better during the week, and the week after, the balance sheet is flat or rising. 

      


So the reduction of the balance sheet will test the dollar as its (UUP) recent pullback hovers just above the lower end of its trading channel and the 20-day EMA.  So stocks have done a good job this year of remaining buoyant despite this strength in the dollar, but that strength is likely why the I-fund has been lagging the S&P 500 by over 4% this year.

         

Yields were slammed lower on Friday giving the F-fund a lift, but the 10-year Treasury Yield chart still looks bullish (for yields, bearish for the F-fund) if the support holds and that bullish looking flag does what a bull flag in blue tends to do -- breakout out to the upside.

The economic calendar is pretty busy this week, but there's nothing on it like a jobs report or a CPI report.  We do get the PCE Prices report on Thursday - the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, but it's not generally a market mover unless it is completely out of whack with estimates.

Otherwise, it's two weeks until the next jobs report.  The next CPI report comes out on the 12th of March, and the next FOMC meeting / policy statement isn't until March 20th so, with earnings season winding down, it's going to be a little quiet for a while.  That could be a reason for profit taking OR, perhaps a time for the market to continue to climb the wall of worry. 
 



The S&P 500 (C-fund) has some overhead resistance issues, although there are some scenarios where that resistance could be a little higher (see the blue parallel trading channel.)  Otherwise it is right up against the top of the orange channel with a big open gap below 5000 that needs filling eventually.  I've been leery of this overly stretched chart in recent weeks, but it just keeps moving higher.

       


DWCPF (S-fund) is in a different situation as it is not as stretch, but rather it has built a good looking base since the December peak.  The question has been whether this good looking chart can make new highs if the overly overstretched S&P 500 does do some backing and filling.  The fact that the Fed is less likely to cut rates hurts the prospects of small stocks.

       
 

EFA (I-fund) finally broke out to new highs last week and it took some weakness in the dollar to do so.  Now, as I mentioned above, the dollar is testing support and if it holds, could be a headwind for the I-fund, but if support breaks on that UUP chart up top, then this could have more room to run.

       


BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied big on Friday but it has been in a down trend and trading below that 50-day EMA for several days now so it has more to prove before I can get interested in bonds. 

       


Thanks so much for reading!  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html

Daily Market Commentary Archives

To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.

Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk?  Why not Tell a Friend about us?  We'd really appreciate it, and they may too. 

Thanks!

 
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
Market Commentary Archive


Commentary Archives
 

Have questions? Visit our Forums for answers.

Would you like to be on our email alert list? Your email address will never be given out. Please read our privacy policy. By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.

Like what you're reading? Please Tell a Friend about us.

Help and Resources


Site Map
FAQ
FAQ - Premium Services
FAQ for Alerts
Reader Testimonials
How to Make a Transfer
How to Make an IFT (Video)
Report Problems / Errors
Contact Us

TSP - What is it?
Who Is TSP Talk?
What Can We Do For You?


Tell a friend or co-worker
Recent Forum Activity
TSP.gov Home Page

Mobile Options
- TSP Talk Forum Apps


 

Keep Me Informed

Enter email Address:
For Email Marketing you can trust

[more info]
How to get on the list!

 
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes

TSP Talk is not a Registered Investment Advisor. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com.

TSP Talk is in no way affiliated with the U.S. government, or military Thrift Savings Plan, tsp.gov, or any other government agency. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does tsptalk.com® assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.

Full Disclaimer

Copyright ® 2003 - 2024
Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
TSPtalk.com ® is a trademark of Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
All Rights Reserved

Buy Low Sell High, Inc., 221 N. Washington Blvd #13213, Ogden UT 84412