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  1. TSP Talk - Let the rotation begin -- or not?

    A better than expected CPI report sent yields and the dollar lower and it flipped a switch on Wall Street as small caps took a major step forward while the hot big tech stocks reversed lower. Despite the 0.88% loss in the S&P 500, 393 of the 500 stocks in that index were up while only 107 were down, so it was a complete turnaround from the recent top heavy activity.

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  2. Stats for July YoY

    This is not a chart I'd do often but it seems fitting. With yet another 52-week high, this is a good time to take a step back and look the index from a different perspective. This chart is the 63-year statistical range for July-over-July. If we pretended 2024 ends this month, this is where we stand in reference to previous years.

    We are currently 22.77% July YoY. This would rank 8th best of 64 years and the 16th highest high.

    Monthly SPX
    day trading vs hold steady-20240711-02-png ...
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  3. TSP Talk - The Fed sounds dovish, but inflation data matters

    After a slow start to the trading day on Wednesday, the Fed's testimony to congress brought out the more dovish side of Jerome Powell, and the bulls ran with it. The rally was fairly broad although once again the S-fund and the equal Weighted S&P 500 lagged the large caps by a modest amount, but there wasn't much complaining. Was yesterday a trap, or will the top callers continue to be frustrated?

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  4. S&P 500 YTD Performance

    For the S&P 500, 20.9% of its holdings are outperforming the Index (which is not good). However, if we factor in the weighted influence of the stronger holdings, we find that 52.64% of the index's holdings are outperforming the index itself.

    As an example of weighted performance, the S&P 500 is currently 16.92% YTD. As an estimate, the Top-10 have given the Index 20%, while the Bottom 100 have taken -.13%

    new to the site-20240710-03-png

    In the meantime, we've closed
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  5. TSP Talk - The mixed results market continues

    It's the post holiday week and we are seeing some post holiday reversals in some charts like the 10-year yield, the dollar, and the I-fund, but otherwise it has been more of the same, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking with the Senate Banking Committee did little to change that. Large tech led yesterday, but the big three stock indices were mostly flat with the weakness coming in the usual suspects - small caps, the I-fund, and the Transports, which isn't the best situation, but it's working ...
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes