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  1. TSP Talk: Choppiness is back

    Stocks spent the day chopping around on Wednesday but for a third straight day a lot of the gains came later in the day after a weak morning. There was a late shake up after the Fed meeting minutes were released, which added some volatility to the day, the big three indices all closed with gains. Meanwhile small caps, the Transports, and NYSE breadth were all negative on the day. The dollar was up again and bond yields rebounded.

  2. TSP Talk: Stocks reverse up but yield curve inverts again

    Stocks reversed nicely after the sell off at the opening bell. The Dow was down over 700-points at the lows but closed down just 129-points. The S&P 500 snuck into positive territory near the close and the Nasdaq led with a big gain erasing the morning losses. A breakout to the upside in the dollar helped push oil down below $100 a barrel, and we continue to see commodity prices fall, which is certainly a break from the inflationary trend. The weaker economic data is also helping bonds push ...
  3. TSP Talk: July and 2nd half starts with a rally

    Stocks started the 2nd half of 2022 with some nice gains as we headed into the 3-day holiday weekend. The Dow gained 322-points, small caps led on the upside, and the I-fund lagged because of strength in the dollar and the late gains in the U.S. market. Bonds are coming back to life as they threaten a breakout to the upside. So the 3rd quarter starts with a nice gain, but it looks like Q2 will end like Q1 with a 2nd negative GDP making it look more like the first half was in a recession so the ...
  4. Intrepid Timer's Weekly Chart Analysis

    For the week ending 07-01-2022

    This is my analysis of the weekly charts for the S&P 500, IWM, the VIX and 10-year yields. Premium subscribers also receive a daily commentary with the daily charts and my timing system’s signals for both TSP and ETFs outside of TSP.

    Current YTD returns thru 07-01-2022:

    TSP: ETF:

    G fund: 1.16% UPRO (buy ...
  5. TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

    The bulls could not sustain the previous week's rally into this week. Instead stocks saw four straight days of losses. The C and S-fund produced gains of more than 1% Friday to erase of the previous two day's losses and ultimately ending this week near where the previous Friday's rally started. Leading up to Friday's gain it was all doom and gloom for the markets. Investors and economists are beginning to accept that a recession is immanent considering the current GDP projections and the Federal ...
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