TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
TSP Talk on Facebook TSP Talk on Twitter

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns

Thrift Savings Plan Talk
For Federal Government Employees and Military Personnel

Quotes, Charts, Info

TSP Share Prices & Returns
Fund Index Quotes
Popular Charts
Market Futures Quotes
Earnings Reports
Economic Calendar


Need a back-link...
or want to Advertise?
 

Premium Services

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 

Mobile Options


- Android Forum App

- iPhone Forum App

 

 Quick Link to ...
TSP Share Prices | Reader Testimonials

RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Morning Commentary

Intrepid Timer Strategies  |   TSP Talk Plus


Market Commentary

August 3, 2021
 
Archives  |  Current TSP Share Prices
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)


It was quite a first day of trading for August where the indices shot out of the gate to the upside with gains of 0.50% to more than 1% in some indices, only to see it all flip over and close mixed and at the lows of the day.  The Dow, up 250-points at the highs, lost 97 by the close.  The Nasdaq did hold onto a small gain.  Yields and the dollar were down.  Oil sold off sharply, as did many economically sensitive markets.

Daily TSP Funds Return

More returns

 

 

The Covid delta variant worries continue to show, at least that's what we suspect given the sell off in yields again, and the reversal in stocks.  Will we see broad shutdowns again?  I'm sure in some places, but mandatory vaccines and new mask mandates in some areas are certainly reigniting fears with the public so many investors may be anticipating the shutdowns, which would be a game changer. 

Internally the advance / decline numbers were about what you'd expect - negative on the NYSE and flat to positive on the Nasdaq with no real alarming numbers. 

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell sharply hitting 1.15% at the lows of the day, and coming close to testing the recent lows.  The bond market seems concerned about something, and trading below the 50 and 200-day EMAs, there are no signs yet that it is about to turn around.  Holding at the July 20 low would help.

     
 

The dollar was down but it closed off its lows and held above the 50-day EMA. 

     
 

As I mentioned yesterday, earnings will continue to come in but there are few market movers left for this quarter.  The market will now likely turn to the economic data for guidance.  We did get a stronger than expected ISM manufacturing number yesterday, but this week's big report will be the July jobs report which will be released on Friday.  Estimates are looking for a lofty gain of 925,000 new jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.6%.


The S&P 500 (C-fund) opened higher on the day but after about an hour it started to stall and rollover.  The loss was minimal but the action was suspect with the negative reversal day, and closing at the lows.  No major red flags or anything yet, but a test of the 20-day EMA wouldn't be surprising.  From there it's a matter of whether the dip buyers are concerned about the new Covid concerns.

        


The DWCPF (S-fund) did it again.  For a third straight day the chart ran up to that longer-term resistance line, and backed off.  The negative reversal didn't do anything to help the short-term technical picture, but it's still above the 50-day EMA and we have seen the dip buyers show up in that area over the last week or two.  If they don't, it's a long way down to the next level of support.

       


The EFA / I-fund was up and those late day sell offs tend to do that when the Asian and European markets close with gains, with the dollar being down earlier in the day.  The TSP hasn't posted a price yet as of this writing (Monday evening), and they could go either way - try to adjust the number down based on the late action in the U.S. market, or they can post nice gain and perhaps adjust Tuesday's price accordingly if Monday's is off.

             


The Dow Transportation Index again saw very suspicious action as it failed at the 100-day EMA, after that average has held as support for over a year until July.  Now it may start acting as resistance.

        


The BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied on the drop in yields, and this continues to surprise me - and many other folks who believe the economy is supposed to be growing.  Perhaps it's the Covid reaction, but this rally is almost 5 months old now.  The bear flag that I've been noting, is no longer there.

        


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html

To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk?  Why not Tell a Friend about us?  We'd really appreciate it, and they may too. 

Thanks!

 
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
Market Commentary Archive


Commentary Archives
 

Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.

Would you like to be on our email alert list? Your email address will never be given out. Please read our privacy policy. By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.

Like what you're reading? Please Tell a Friend about us.

Help and Resources

Site Map
FAQ
FAQ - Premium Services
FAQ for Alerts
Reader Testimonials
How to Make a Transfer
How to Make an IFT (Video)
Report Problems / Errors
Contact Us

TSP - What is it?
Who Is TSP Talk?
What Can We Do For You?
Want More Help?

Mug Shots

TSP Talk User Map
Tell a friend or co-worker
Recent Forum Activity
Video & Image Library
Market Analysis Videos
TSP.gov Home Page
GovLoop
My Federal Retirement
FERS Guide

Mobile Options
- TSP Talk Forum Apps

 

Keep Me Informed

Enter e-mail Address:
For Email Marketing you can trust

[more info ]
How to get on the list!

 
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes

TSP Talk is not a Registered Investment Advisor. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com.

TSP Talk is in no way affiliated with the U.S. government, or military Thrift Savings Plan, tsp.gov, or any other government agency. TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does tsptalk.com® assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.

Full Disclaimer

Copyright ® 2003 - 2021
Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
TSPtalk.com ® is a trademark of Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
All Rights Reserved

Buy Low Sell High, Inc., 221 N. Washington Blvd #13213, Ogden UT 84412


TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns