TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
TSP Talk on Facebook TSP Talk on Twitter Mobile TSP Talk
Search TSP Talk and tsp.gov
TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns

Thrift Savings Plan Talk

For Federal Government Employees and Military Personnel
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk
Quotes, Charts, Info

TSP Share Prices & Returns
Fund Index Quotes
Popular Charts
Market Futures Quotes
Earnings Reports
Economic Calendar


Need a back-link...
or want to Advertise?
 

Premium Services

TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 

Mobile Options


- Android Forum App

- iPhone Forum App

 

 Quick Link to ...
TSP Share Prices | Reader Testimonials

RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Afternoon Commentary

Intrepid Timer Strategies  |   TSP Talk Plus

Market Commentary

May 23, 2019

Archives  |  Current TSP Share Prices
TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 
 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               


Stocks were down on Wednesday, chopping around quite a bit during the day before settling somewhere in the middle of the day's trading range.  The Dow lost 101-points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw losses in the same neighborhood percentage-wise.  Small caps lagged, as did the Transportation Index, and that market leader is in a bit of a technical mess right now, which isn't great news for the rest of the market.

Daily TSP Funds Return

More returns

 

Things are getting more quiet as summer approaches and the lack of headlines is keeping investors at bay for now, jockeying for position in the choppy market.  On the S&P 500 chart, as you'll see below, we had a spinning top formation, which is an indecision formation.  It can mark a turning point, but with the holiday this coming Monday, trading volume could get light and we know about those pre-holiday reversals, so it could be tough to interpret what is happing over the next 3 to 5 trading days.  Stocks in a down trend could go up in pre-holiday trading, only to reverse back after the holiday - and vice versa as well. 

It's not so easy to determine the current trend in the S&P 500.  It broke below the rising 2019 trend earlier this month, then rallied strongly for a few days, and has since dipped again, falling back below the 50-day EMA.  There's a good case that the trend is now down, but with a potential holiday reversal, we could see some unpredictable behavior.  But that is a bear flag and those are technically bearish, so good luck to us picking the next short-term move.

        


Administrative Note:  TommyIV has been working on a new page to consolidate some of the retirement information that is on our site.  There's links to several articles and conversations that have taken place in the forum on the subject that we thought might be helpful... https://www.tsptalk.com/retirement/


The S&P 500 (C-fund) dipped back below the 50-day EMA with yesterday's minor loss and that, combined with some descending resistance, gives the bears a slight edge going forward, but the holiday trading could make a mess of things.  Plus the bears haven't had much will lately to apply pressure.  The 50 and 100-day EMA's are battling it out right now so we'll see if the 2860 resistance level is taken out by the bulls on the upside first, or if the bears can push it below 2815 to break that next level of support.

         
             

The DWCPF (S-fund) lagged with a 0.69% loss yesterday and it again failed at an attempt to move back above the 50-day EMA.  That could be a bear flag that broke, although it is a little steep.  Whatever it is, the bottom of it held as resistance, and it looks like another test of the 200-day EMA is possible.

         


The Dow Transportation Index broke sharply lower yesterday and that was enough to push it back below the 200-day EMA.  This is a bad looking chart in need of some immediate help.

        


The EFA (I-fund) also failed at the 50-day EMA so the trend off the highs remains down while the 200-day EMA remains the key support for now.  I didn't draw it, but that's a big bear flag in there as well.

       

         
I'm going to keep an eye on the economically sensitive commodities since we recently had a weak Citigroup Economic Surprise Index that we talked about the other day.  Oil, Copper, Lumber, and even gold (not shown) have all come down recently, with copper and lumber at concerning levels.

         


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) rallied as yields fell again.  There may have been support at the recent dip's low (blue horizontal), which I hadn't drawn in over the last few days, but I suppose that it a valid support line.  The 10-year yields is below this AGG chart and there's a clear bear flag near that double bottom so it's looking more like another leg lower is coming for yields - which would be good for the F-fund.

      

     
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Like what you're seeing on TSP Talk?  Why not Tell a Friend about us?  We'd really appreciate it, and they may too.  Thanks!
 

  The easiest way to print this commentary is to copy and paste above into a document like Word.


Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
Market Commentary Archive


Commentary Archives
 

Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.

Would you like to be on our email alert list? Your email address will never be given out. Please read our privacy policy. By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.

Like what you're reading? Please Tell a Friend about us.

Help and Resources

Site Map
FAQ
FAQ - Premium Services
FAQ for Alerts
Reader Testimonials
How to Make a Transfer
How to Make an IFT (Video)
Report Problems / Errors
Contact Us

TSP - What is it?
Who Is TSP Talk?
What Can We Do For You?
Want More Help?

Mug Shots

TSP Talk User Map
Tell a friend or co-worker
Recent Forum Activity
Video & Image Library
Market Analysis Videos
TSP.gov Home Page
GovLoop
My Federal Retirement
FERS Guide

Mobile Options
- TSP Talk Forum Apps

 
 
SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.  The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com. Full Disclaimer

Copyright © 2003 - 2019
Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
TSPtalk.com ® is a trademark of Buy Low Sell High, Inc.
All Rights Reserved

Buy Low Sell High, Inc., 221 N. Washington Blvd #13213, Ogden UT 84412


TSP Talk Market Comments TSP AutoTracker Premiums Site Map TSP Funds Forum Returns