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Market Commentary

April 14, 2021
 
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Stocks opened lower yesterday after the FDA announced that it is pausing the Johnson & Johnson COVID vaccine, but as the day wore on the news of benign inflation Consumer Price report came out and helped push prices higher.  The Dow lost 68-points but the broader indices performed quite well, although a late dip took them off their highs. 

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The dollar took a dive yesterday after that tame inflation Consumer Price report (if we take out gasoline prices) was released Tuesday morning, and a falling dollar will push prices up, or at least help them from going down as much as they otherwise might have if the dollar was flat or up. 

    

 
So we saw the indices up for the most part, oil up, gold up, bitcoin up, bond prices up (yields down), etc. 

                  


The Dow and the small caps of the Russell 2000 bucked that trend and saw modest losses, although the Russell battled back from a steep early loss, while the small caps S-fund did quite well with midcap stocks in that index helping out there.

So, a lot of green on the index quote pages, but ironically, the NYSE and Nasdaq saw more issues trading down than up and the NYSE had more share volume down than up.  The Nasdaq volume was more positive.

                    


The excitement today may be the IPO of cypto-currency broker Coinbase hitting the tickers today.  Bitcoin rallied to an all-time high yesterday in front of this IPO.  I can't help but wonder if we could get a "sell the news" reaction in the cryptos, after this recent "buy the news" rally?


The S&P 500 (C-fund) is getting the most out of this recent move higher, and its now getting more on the overly extended side, which we saw often last year after that 2020 COVID crash low.  We mentioned the "melt-up" possibility and that may be what we're seeing here.  The chart is at some resistance, but the resistance is rising.  Let's see if the bank earnings take this out of that small, tight blue channel.

         


The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) had a nice day despite a negative start and losses in the Russell 2000 index.  The bullish flag (blue) broke to the upside as we'd expect them to do, but it's drawing closer to the descending resistance line near 2200.  You can see the Russell 2000 chart below DWCPF and it's telling a different story for small caps, so it's the midcaps of the DWCPF that are doing so well.

      


The EFA (I-Fund) is back above that large red wedge's resistance line and testing the previous highs.  The recent weakness, and 0.36% drop in the dollar yesterday, is keeping this chart very perky.

       


The Nasdaq 100, large cap tech stocks, finally made a new high yesterday besting the February peak.  No double top to speak of yet, but let's give it a coupe of days to confirm this breakout.  The chart is full of open gaps so I labeled this the Swiss cheese rally.  Will the gaps get filled or will the chart take off above the breakout line - that is the question.

     


BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied nicely on the Consumer price report and once again it is testing the top of the bear flag, which is getting quite long at this point.  It may have its sights set on that 50-day EMA.

        


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

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Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
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