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Market Commentary

September 20, 2018

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               


It was a sector picking day for the market with wildly mixed results in the various indices.   The Dow led with a solid 159-point again, or +0.61%.  The S&P 500 was up slightly, the Transports were flat, the Nasdaq was down slightly, and small caps were down fairly sharply.
 
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The action has been quite interesting lately and the divergences may be trying to tell us something.  I wish I knew what that was.   We're seeing a run out of small caps and more interest in large caps, and the larger the better, so it seems that the stocks that were hit most and avoided during the trade negotiations, are getting the attention now that a number (10%) has been made.

Bonds are tumbling and the 10-year Treasury Yield has been holding above the 3% level for the first time in a while so again... is something different happening.  Normally investors will move toward bonds and gold if they are nervous about the stock market, but neither have been doing much.  There has been very little interest in gold, although it is trying to stabilize after a long decline and "V" like bottom last month.

          


We're in late September, about 7 weeks before the mid-term elections, which could be a major catalyst for the markets.  Plus it's the week before another rate hike and the Fed's policy statement and plans for future hikes, another catalyst.  I read an interesting article about how Wall Street is not understanding the impact of the Fed unwinding its balance sheet.  Here's a link to that article, if interested.



The S&P 500 / C-fund didn't follow through with another big day as we've seen in the past after a big rally off the lows, but we also didn't see the bears putting much pressure on either.  It remains above rising support with some resistance overhead including a possible double top, so the question will be whether investors will continue to opt for the larger stocks here near all-time highs, or if they'll start moving back into the weaker small caps and tech stocks.

       


The small caps (S-fund) tried to rally early but once again they under-performed and actually made a lower low below Monday's sell-off lows.  There's a possible bull flag forming (red) but it may have already broken down from a small bear flag (blue).  Perhaps a pullback to the blue support will again be the area to buy?

       


The Nasdaq has been forming an ugly pattern of late (an "h" looking formation), but a similar formation fared rather well in August.

       


The Dow Transportation Index was flat and continues to trade in a tight range.  It broke down from the parallel channel already so I am looking at the support line of the rising wedge in blue now as the do or die level.

     


The EAFE (I-fund) was up nicely again breaking above the 50-day EMA, something it also did in August, but there is some descending resistance in the way now, a trend line (red) that held in August.

       


The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund did break down from the bull fag we talked about yesterday. 

      


The AGG (bonds) took another dive again yesterday as the yield on the 10-year T-bill moved further above the stubborn 3% area.  It is below all kind of support levels here.  It may be oversold and due for a rebound, but old broken support may now act as resistance on any relief rally.

     
 

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
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