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Intrepid_Timer's Daily Commentary

Intrepid_Timer's Investment Strategies

"Fear is not an option when it comes to your financial future"

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04-17-15 Commentary

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As of right now, my system is remaining bearish for equities, but it could still go either way. If it does happen to move to a buy later this morning, I’ll send out an alert by 11:30am ET. *

If you can, please check I_T's Signal Thread around 11:30am ET every day for the daily signal.

The S&P 500 pulled back slightly yesterday and the upper blue trend continues to act as resistance. The two day action looks pretty similar to the last top we saw in mid-March doesn’t it? Could those be considered “tweezer tops”? I drop back down to the lower trend line would certainly be welcomed right now.

The RSI ticked lower yesterday, but the bigger trend is still up. The MACD is gradually moving higher. The Slow STO is above 80, but for how long?


The chart for the Russell 2000 looks almost exactly like the chart for the S&P 500, except for the fact that the Russell put in a new yearly high two days ago but the S&P hasn’t. Both are putting in higher lows.


The VIX dropped again yesterday and is now back at the bottom of the recent trading range. It still hasn’t closed that small gap from back in Dec, but maybe its close enough? The RSI is now below the supportive 40 level, but it doesn’t tend to remain there for very long. The MACD is slowly fading. The Slow STO has spiked lower again and could continue to move lower, but that doesn’t mean it will. It’s definitely oversold.


10-year yields initially moved higher yesterday, but hit resistance at the middle Bollinger band and closed in the red, so we were able to add to our recent F fund gains despite AGG suffering a slight loss for the day. This is why I choose to track yields instead of AGG to tell me what the F fund is doing. Of course, in order to get a more accurate reading of the F fund, we’d have to track every yield instead of just 10-year, but 10-year yields are considered the “standard”. AGG will track TLT better because like stocks, they trade until the US stock markets close at 4pm ET.

Anyway, 10-year yields actually gapped lower this morning, but have spike higher after the CPI numbers this morning, which pretty much came in as expected. I guess bond traders think this will cause the Fed to raise rates in June for some reason……..

The RSI dropped down to the supportive 40 level yesterday but are bouncing off that level right now. The MACD continues to move sideways. The Slow STO still appears headed down to 20 again, although it does look like it is trying to move higher this morning, at least for now………


*Any suggested signals that I give on these commentaries are subject to change later in the morning unless I say specifically that there will not be one. Any signal changes, or lack thereof, are not confirmed until I post them in my “Signal's Thread” on the TSPtalk message board. If I do get a signal change, I will be sending out an email alert before 11:30 am ET as well.

FYI, when I draw a trend line, I like to try and use lines with multiple data points. A trend line with only a couple of data points does not make a trend, not in my eyes anyway, although there is always a chance it could be the start of one.

My timing system typically gives two buy signals for equities each month, but with the 2 IFT limit we have with TSP, we can only use one. I almost always use the first buy signal to move to 100% S fund as this is how all my back tested returns were derived, but I installed a new indicator in the spring of 2013 to help me to decide if I want to go with the 1st or 2nd buy signal of the month for TSP. I move to 100% F fund on either my system’s 1st or 2nd sell signal of the month for equities and have proprietary timing patterns in place to tell me which sell signal “may” produce the best return in the F fund. Typically though, either sell signal for equities will produce a positive return in the F fund as bonds tend to move up when equities go down (not always of course).

laugh and love!    


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DISCLAIMER: I am not a registered investment adviser and am not providing investment advice or recommendations to anyone. The information contained here is for educational purposes only. This information is being made available to show what is possible and what is not possible with the current TSP trading limits and with other investment resources outside of TSP. These TSP allocations and ETF/mutual fund buy and sell signals are purely hypothetical and past performance is not indicative of future results. I may or may not be using these securities at any given time for my own personal investments. Your investment losses and gains are your own responsibility. Please consult an investment professional before buying any investment security.

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This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

S&P 500 (C fund)
1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Dow Completion (S fund)

1d  5d  3m  6m 
EFA (I fund)
1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Bonds (F fund)

1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
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