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August 1, 2014

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Hello volatility.  Where have you been?  It's interesting that the day in between the Fed policy statement and the Friday jobs report gets the big spike in the VIX (Volatility Index).  The Dow lost 317-points and the carnage was spread around most indices. 
 

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So that's one way to end a month, and we'll see if it is a prequel to what happens in August, or if things can turn around after today's jobs report. 

Here are the final July monthly and current annual returns for the TSP funds:

               


The U.S. indices lost about 2% each and the I-fund held up a little better, but may pay a price on Friday, unless U.S. stocks can rebound early.  Bonds were flat but posted a negative reversal day.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) opened sharply lower leaving a small open gap just above 196.  It easily fell below the 50-day EMA, which is a little surprising on its first attempt, so it may be a case of some panic selling as the indicators have become quite oversold in the short-term.  You'd expect some kind of a snap-back rally, but big drops like this are sometimes tough to recover from - at least doing so easily.  We'll have to see what this bull market has left in it.

 
                           
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

A longer-term view shows some possible support near the current level as it is hitting the bottom of a parallel rising trading channel.
 
                           
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) broke down and is now at the bottom of a descending trading channel.  Possible short-term support, but the trend is clearly down now.


  
                           
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Russell 2000 (small caps) has been lagging and it is now the first major index to fall below its 200-day EMA (and 200-day Simple MA).  There are a lot of reasons to dislike this chart but it is very oversold and the last time it fell below the 200-day EMA it hung around the area before rebounding. 

  
                           
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


We've been watching France's CAC 40 Index and the bear flag did break down as we suspected, and that's two bear flag breakdowns in July.

       
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


France makes up about 10% of our I-fund and other European Indices are also feeling some pain, so it's not a surprise that the EFA (EAFE / I-fund) also broke down.  There is a large gap overhead (near 67.50) which may mean a relief rally is due, but the bottom of that flag may act as resistance (near 68.)


       
                           
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The F-fund was up slightly but the AGG fell down to the 50-day EMA after to failing to breakout just a couple of days ago.  It's surprising that bonds didn't do better with stocks selling off so severely, but the weak jobless claims number triggered a negative reversal day instead.  
  
                           
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


We get the July jobs report today (Friday) and consensus estimates are looking for a gain of 220,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 6.1%. 


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading!  Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley



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  The easiest way to print this commentary is to copy and paste above into a document like Word.

Friday is the 1st trading day in August:

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 

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