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Market Comments


August 20, 2014

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Stocks continued their winning ways as the indices have left a vapor trail off the recent lows.  The Dow gained another 81-points yesterday and the broader indices gained 0.1% (Transports) to 0.5% (S&P 500), with Russell 2000 in between at +0.35%.

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The I-fund posted a modest gain, and bonds were off slightly and created a possible negative chart formation.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is just shy of a new all time high after a 0.5% gain yesterday.  Volume continues to be at the summer lows and what volume there is seems to be all buyers.  We'll have to see if the sellers show up at a double top near 199 - assuming that is the next target.

   
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk  

The Wilshire 4500 (S-Fund) continued its sharply rising incline.  There is a little resistance near 1040 here, but it's not very strong.  If we do see a pullback from that level, it could be the $EWM starting a right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, with 1040 as the neckline.


      
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The
Russell 2000 (small caps) opened a small gap yesterday but it didn't really move too much from there.  That kind of gap should get filled quickly and like the Wilshire, there is a bit of resistance overhead.

        
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The
EFA (I-Fund) has gotten a decent bounce of the recent lows and there is a large open gap (red) that seems to be a target.  The 50-day EMA is falling and it will be a test for this EFA to get above the area where the top of the gap meets the 50-day EMA (blue circle).

       
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk
 


The IEF (Bonds) created a negative outside reversal day but stayed above key support.   If reversal is the start of a downturn for bonds, the rally in stocks would make more sense.  But if that old resistance line, turned support, holds, I suspect stocks would stop propelling higher.

     
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


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Thanks for reading!  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley



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  The easiest way to print this commentary is to copy and paste above into a document like Word.

Wednesday is the 14th trading day in August:

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 

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S&P 500 (C fund)
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Dow Completion (S fund)
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EFA (I fund)
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Bonds (F fund)
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20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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