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Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)
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Jobs report
Stocks continue to bounce around during this light volume, holiday shortened
week, that happens to also include a bevy of economic data / reports.
This morning we get the jobs report, probably one of the most anticipated
reports of the month. Once again the light volume could produce a wild
day in one direction or the other, or both.
As you can see below, the wild swings have not really done much to change
things. After a rebound off of the 50-day EMA last week, the S&P 500
has traded in a range of about 910 to 930, with a slightly positive uptrend
during the strong seasonal period of late June / early July.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey
came in at 40% bulls, 43% bears, for a 0.93 to 1 bulls to bears ratio.
Although nearing the 1.0 to 1 sell signal ratio, the 0.93 to 1 still just a
neutral reading, but the system remains in the G fund waiting for a buy
signal below 0.50 to 1.
Estimates for the June jobs report are for a loss of 365K jobs. We
will also be looking for any revisions to the May report which initially
came in at -345K. The unemployment rate is expected to come in at
9.6%; a couple of notches above the 9.4% we saw in May.
That's all for today. Thanks for
reading. Have a great holiday weekend!
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Today is the 2nd trading day in
July:
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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