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Market Comments


July 23, 2014

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Stocks bounced back from Monday's losses on Tuesday, and the Dow gained 62-points.  We saw new intraday highs in some indices but a weak close pushed them back down a bit.

I'm out of town this week spending time with my home town friends and family - first time in six years.  I want to do more visiting than market analysis this week so I'm hoping for a quiet week for stocks so I can keep the commentary brief.

 

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The C-fund came within less than a penny of a new closing high while the S and I-funds, which did well yesterday, have lagged and are well off those highs.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) pushed above the early July high briefly but backed off and may be nearing some overhead resistance.  This is still a bullish chart, but a new leg higher might give investors more relief.

 
                           
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) is still lagging quite a bit.  Yesterday's move above the prior 3 day's high looks like a positive development, but the 20-day EMA may try to get in the way.  It has closed below the 20-day EMA for 11 straight days.

       
                           Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The DAX and other European markets had a big day on Tuesday, but they are still in a downtrend and below their 50-day EMAs.  At this point it may be a "sell the rallies" situation on these overseas markets. 

 
  
                           
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


The recent strength in the dollar has held back many of those international indices but the 200-day EMA is now being tested on the UUP so the dollar may find it a little tougher to continue to move higher.  If it does pullback, perhaps the I-fund can get out of its funk.  But ultimately, the sluggish European economy is the catalyst for the I-fund right now.

   

                         
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com , analysis by TSP Talk 

The AGG (F-fund) pushed above its recent trading channel despite stocks rallying yesterday.  This looks like a bullish chart, but can bonds and stocks rally and breakout together? 
                                
  
                           
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading!  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley



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  The easiest way to print this commentary is to copy and paste above into a document like Word.

Wednesday is the 16th trading day in July:

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 

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S&P 500 (C fund)
[Chart]
1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Dow Completion (S fund)
[Chart]
1d
  5d  3m  6m 
EFA (I fund)
[Chart]
1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Bonds (F fund)
[Chart]

1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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