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RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Afternoon Commentary

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Market Comments

September 19, 2014

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Stocks were up across the board on Thursday; some follow-through to the Fed's "no surprises" monetary policy on Wednesday.  The Dow gained 109-points, and as I mentioned before, with the Dow over 17,000, 100-point gains aren't what they used to be, but they sure beat 100-point losses. 
 

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The I-fund was up and bonds were down.

Scotland's vote on independence was the big news on Thursday but the votes had not been counted yet.  Now that the count is in and they will remain part of the U.K. there could be some sighs of relief.  The word I heard was that Scotland's independence would not have been good for stocks, but it doesn't look like that will happen now.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) broke out to new highs on Thursday after breaking to the upside of a bull flag earlier in the week.  It looks good technically, but if you connect the recent closing highs, the index could be at some overhead resistance.  Being at the resistance now, we should know fairly quickly how strong it will be.

   
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk

The PMO indicator has curled back up, and as I have mentioned several times over the years, sometimes the first time the PMO falls below the moving average - which we saw late last week - it can be a sign of being oversold and a bounce is typical (and what we saw.)  But if the PMO moves goes above its moving average (red line) and then it falls back below it within a short period of time, that would be "the bad one".  That's "if" it falls back below it.  It doesn't always happen.

The weekly chart of the SPY currently shows a positive outside weekly bar, which tends to be very bullish, but there is one day to go and the bulls will want to see the S&P close above the prior weekly bars (candlesticks) on Friday.
 
                     Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-Fund) had a positive day but it is still struggling to break above resistance.  The double top held earlier this month, and the pullback has not really relented - as long as that downside resistance holds.

  
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The weekly chart of the Russell 2000 (small caps) has been in a long positive trend like most stock indices.  Right now the long-term support line is being tested.  The small caps could resume the trend and bounce off of the support, but if we see this breakdown, that would obviously be a pretty big red flag.


   

                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk

The
EFA (EAFE / I-fund) resumed its positive move off of the 200-day EMA.  That positive outside day on Tuesday (black arrow) tends to be a market reversing event, and as long as the recent lows hold (near the 200 EMA) it would be bullish.  But if that low is tested and broken, that would change the situation.

      
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


France's CAC 40 followed the U.S. large cap indices and broke to the upside of its bull flag.  This is typically a bullish sign from the country that is flirting with a recession.  


        
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) slipped to another multi-month low yesterday, and Wednesday's negative outside day isn't painting a great picture for bonds, but they may be getting oversold in the short-term.

        
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk



Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading!  Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley



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  The easiest way to print this commentary is to copy and paste above into a document like Word.

Friday is the 14th trading day in September:

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

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Quotes

 
 
S&P 500 (C fund)
[Chart]
1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Dow Completion (S fund)
[Chart]
1d
  5d  3m  6m 
EFA (I fund)
[Chart]
1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Bonds (F fund)
[Chart]

1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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