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Market Comments

April 17, 2014

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Tuesday's positive reversal day turned into a big follow-through day on Wednesday as stocks rallied for a third straight day.  The Dow gained 162-points and most indices picked up 1% or more, with the Transports leading the way with a 1.7% gain.

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Janet Yellen told us that she is willing to keep interest rates low until we see real improvement in the jobs market, something she isn't seeing yet.  That sent stocks higher and yields lower, so bond prices, which opened lower, reversed up with the 10 and 30 year bonds closing mixed but well off their lows. 

Some strong earnings reports helped ignite Wednesday's rally, but after the close some big name earnings reports disappointed as IBM was trading down 4% after hours and Google was down over 3%, so that may put some pressure on the indices.  We'll see if the bulls are still in the mood to buy and dips, if there is one.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) made a bold move back above the 20 and 50-day EMAs, as well as the December "neckline" high.  It also broke above its short-term descending trading channel, but all of this was done on very light volume in front of a holiday.  The light volume sparks concern that this is just a pre-holiday reversal that may reverse back down after the holiday.  On the bullish side, seasonality is almost as strong after Easter weekend as it is before, except for on Monday.

                         Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Nasdaq also followed through on its big reversal day and actually led the S&P 500 for a change.  This index is still in a down trend but does have a little room to move higher even if the downtrend holds.  The fact that the reversal came right at the 200-day EMA after the Nasdaq lost 9.7%, almost exactly a 10% correction, gives the bulls hope that the worst may be over.

                            Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) has managed to crawl back into the long-term rising trading channel, after 3 closes below it.  Those of you who have been with us for a while know that I like to see 3 to 5 closes below a breakdown level before confirming it.  The Wilshire closed 3 days below it, making me nervous, but day 4 closed back above it.

                            Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The Transportation Index had a big day gaining 1.7% and it is already closing in on recapturing the prior breakout point.  This looks good but again, is this just a pre-holiday fake-out reversal?

                            Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Bonds opened lower yesterday, but spent the rest of the day moving slowly higher and closed mixed with the F-fund losing 0.04%.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury (below, right) held above the support from the 200-day EMA.
                            Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

The TLT closed quite strong after Yellen gave her first major speech since she's been the Fed Chairman.  She said that  interest rates should remain low for the foreseeable future, and that helped push bonds off their lows.  There is a possible rising wedge forming, and they tend to break down so I'm not sure about bonds right here.

                            Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk

From www.tsp.govSome financial markets will be closed Friday, April 18th. Consequently, the Thrift Savings Plan will not be updating share prices in any of the TSP funds for that day. Transactions that would have been processed Friday night (April 18th) will be processed Monday night (April 21st), at Monday's closing share prices.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts and indicators, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and its TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading!  Have a great weekend, and Happy Easter!

Tom Crowley

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Thursday is the 13th trading day in April:

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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S&P 500 (C fund)
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EFA (I fund)
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Bonds (F fund)

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20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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