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Market Comments

August 20, 2014

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Stocks continued their winning ways as the indices have left a vapor trail off the recent lows.  The Dow gained another 81-points yesterday and the broader indices gained 0.1% (Transports) to 0.5% (S&P 500), with Russell 2000 in between at +0.35%.

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The I-fund posted a modest gain, and bonds were off slightly and created a possible negative chart formation.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is just shy of a new all time high after a 0.5% gain yesterday.  Volume continues to be at the summer lows and what volume there is seems to be all buyers.  We'll have to see if the sellers show up at a double top near 199 - assuming that is the next target.

                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk  

The Wilshire 4500 (S-Fund) continued its sharply rising incline.  There is a little resistance near 1040 here, but it's not very strong.  If we do see a pullback from that level, it could be the $EWM starting a right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, with 1040 as the neckline.

                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

Russell 2000 (small caps) opened a small gap yesterday but it didn't really move too much from there.  That kind of gap should get filled quickly and like the Wilshire, there is a bit of resistance overhead.

                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

EFA (I-Fund) has gotten a decent bounce of the recent lows and there is a large open gap (red) that seems to be a target.  The 50-day EMA is falling and it will be a test for this EFA to get above the area where the top of the gap meets the 50-day EMA (blue circle).

                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com
, analysis by TSP Talk

The IEF (Bonds) created a negative outside reversal day but stayed above key support.   If reversal is the start of a downturn for bonds, the rally in stocks would make more sense.  But if that old resistance line, turned support, holds, I suspect stocks would stop propelling higher.

                            Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk

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Thanks for reading!  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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  The easiest way to print this commentary is to copy and paste above into a document like Word.

Wednesday is the 14th trading day in August:

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

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S&P 500 (C fund)
1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Dow Completion (S fund)
  5d  3m  6m 
EFA (I fund)
1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
Bonds (F fund)

1d  5d  3m  6m  1y  2y
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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