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  1. TSP Talk - Will stocks rally if interest rate hikes are done?

    Stocks sold off on expiration Friday, giving back the solid gains it had accumulated during the week. The Dow lost 289-points and this time it was big tech that led the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on the downside, while small caps outperformed, although it was no picnic for them either on Friday. Stocks are still having a very strong year so is this just the typical fall shake out before the typical 4th quarter rally - especially if the Fed is done raising interest rates, or is there something more ...
  2. TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - A Volatile Ride


    The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came out on Wednesday, a week ahead of the next Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting. This is the last major report card on inflation the Federal Reserve gets before making their next monetary policy decision. The CPI report showed an acceleration in inflation from the previous month's report. The report was up 0.6% from the previous month. A lot of that increase came from an increase in energy price. The core inflation index, which excludes
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  3. TSP Talk - A hot PPI generates... a rally?

    The market surprised many traders and investors yesterday after the PPI report followed the CPI by coming in hotter than expected, yet stocks rallied as if it was good news. The ECB (European Central Bank) raised interest rates but suggested it would be the last hike, and that was most likely the catalyst, but with yields up, the dollar up, oil up to new highs, and those inflationary pricing reports, it seemed like it should have been a day that sold off, but it wasn't. Is that telling us something? ...
  4. TSP Talk - CPI was warm, but maybe not as bad as expected

    The CPI report came in a little hotter than expected but perhaps not quite as much as feared, and stocks did some flip flopping during the day. The Dow reversed almost 200-points from high to the close yesterday and lost 70-points, and small caps did not do well at all. Meanwhile the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were again kept afloat by big tech stocks doing well, and closed with modest gains. Bond yields spiked then retreated, creating a potential negative reversal pattern.

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  5. TSP Talk - Churning into the CPI Report

    Stocks pulled back yesterday as Monday's winners were Turnaround Tuesday's losers, and Monday's laggards held up better on the day, although they were still flat to down. The Dow lost 18-points but big tech, which carried the S&P and Nasdaq higher on Monday, was dragged down by the sell off in Oracle yesterday, and that took the S&P and Nasdaq down with it. Apple declined again, and as goes Apple... Bonds were up slightly as yields slipped lower. The dollar moved higher adding some pressure ...
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