JTH

For the month of August, let me preface this by stating (from my viewpoint), August is a lower-middle tier month. It doesn't have impressive statistics on the Monthly, Daily, & MTD time-frames, it just lacks that “wow” factor other months have. I'll go more into detail after the July close, but for now here's a quick overview.

The 1st Day of Aug has the lowest 1st Day of the Month win ratio of all months at 41%. But... of the 26 of 63 times the 1st day closed positive, the month had a reasonable 65% win ratio.

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Note: From 1961-2023, our 756 Month win ratio is 60%, this is our baseline average.


On the Monthly scale, across the past 63 years (and sorted into three 21-year increments), we have a snorefesting 57% win ratio. Since we don't know how July will close, I've included both outcomes for Aug when July closes Positive or Negative. The only semi-impressive stat is the 67% win ratio for the 4th year of the Presidential Cycle, but this data is limited to 15 years.

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IMHO: As we look ahead, August leads into September (duh). Statistically, September is the worst performing month of the year, with a 43% win ratio, and the worst average returns of all months. Thus (in times of uncertainty) August is a good month to decide how to be positioned for September.

Why?

The September low to the Dec close has a 90% win ratio, with an average-of-gains of 9.15%. Not that this is easy, but in theory if we could correctly time the Sep low (historically) we have a 90% chance of a 9.18% gain or a 10% chance of a -11.12% loss.

Below is September's close based on the August close. It may surprise you to know when August closes positive, September's stats are weaker.



Thanks for reading.... Jason