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Market Commentary

April 27, 2017

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TSP Talk - Thrift Savings Plan Talk

 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

A late sell off spoiled what looked like a third big day for stocks, pushing some indices slightly into the red by the close.  The Dow had been up about 450-points over the prior two days so bulls were probably OK with a 21-point dip on Wednesday.  The action and what it did to the chart is not very bullish for the short-term, but that was to be expected after we saw the big rally creating many open gaps and double tops on the charts. 

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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were basically flat on the day and the small caps held onto a modest gain, some of that having to do with the tax reform plan that was revealed which would benefit small businesses.  Other than that there weren't any big surprises in the plan so it may have been a sign for investors to ring the register.

Also, some comments out of the White House, about the time stocks started to waiver yesterday, said China sees North Korea as a threat to Chinese interests and security, and it may also have been enough to trigger some profit taking.

The Transportation Index is our market leader and it was the first to pullback and fill its open gap.  It was a sign of weakness, but getting those gaps filled while remaining above the old resistance is nothing too be concerned about, yet.


We start to get some big technology companies reporting earnings after the bell today so that could be a market mover.

The S&P 500 / C-fund flirted with the March highs and and pulled back, as we might expect.  Double tops tend to bring on profit takers, but it's usually not too much more than that.  It's an excuse to sell and with those open gaps below, there is a draw to the downside.  This doesn't mean the bull market is over or that the new rising trend is finished, but it would not be a surprise to see a little stall here.


The DWCPF (S-fund) had a big push into new highs and actually closed at a new record high, but it too pulled back from its early gains.  Closing at a new high is obviously a good thing, but those open gaps are probably not going to be ignored by traders because of one close above the old high.


The EFA (I-fund) dipped on the day as the dollar was up slightly.  The top of the open gap held as support, but that huge gap is certainly going to be a factor somehow, whether it's a full fill, a partial fill, or just a test of the top of the gap.


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) rallied back yesterday, as did gold, so the safety trade is not dead.  It may be stemming from more rumbling out of North Korea.


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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S&P 500 (C fund)
Dow Completion (S fund)
EFA (I fund)
Bonds (F fund)
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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