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Market Commentary

March 27, 2017

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

It was a mixed and volatile day for stocks on Friday as investors awaiting the outcome of the healthcare bill.  As the day went on and we saw no results, there was some selling the closer we got to the close.  But just before 3 PM ET it was announced that the bill was being taken off the floor.  Initially stocks sank, but we saw some buying late to end with a mixed bag.  The Dow lost 60-points on the day while the S&P was just south of flat, and the Nasdaq and small caps added small gains.
 
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One of the main reasons that investors were anticipating this healthcare result was that if passed, it would have cut many of the taxes out of the current Affordable Care Act.  Now those taxes are staying put so the investment community had to decide if that was reason enough for the market to give back recent gains.  But the other thing the non-vote on the bill did was make way for the next Trump agenda which could be tax reform.  And investors didn't seem to want to sell into that possibility. 

So yes, we did have a negative week for stocks last week with the healthcare billing hanging over the market and eventually being pulled, but it's behind us now and we have to look forward to April's earnings reports, the debt ceiling battle, and potentially tax reform.  It could stay volatile but the market, despite some cracks in the charts, hasn't completely rolled over yet.

The futures are down sharply Sunday evening but that doesn't always translate into a negative open on Monday morning.  If we do see a gap down, Monday morning gaps tend to fill quickly.  On the other hand any weakness could break some of the charts as you'll see below.  It's never easy.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is sitting on some very solid support here and that's why any gap down open on Monday would be troublesome.  If that support is taken out then it better rebound quickly or the charts would have a very big strike against them.  That bear flag (in red) doesn't help either since they tend to break down.  But, if the S&P closes above that support on Monday, that's a big difference and would be a bullish move.

      


The weekly chart shows one of the cracks in the charts as last week's weekly bar closed below two support levels, and these are not short-term support lines.  That's a big red flag.  

      


The DWCPF (S-fund) has been in a downtrend since the peak in early March, it is now below the 50-day EMA, and it has formed a bear flag.  Those are all bad signs, but for those who have been waiting for a pullback to buy, here you go.  The questions is, is the pullback just getting started or finishing up?

    


The Dow Transportation Index has been a red flag too.  Like the small caps we've seen the Transports peak in early March but they have not shown much life at all.  They may be oversold and due for relief, but when the market leader is falling, it's not very encouraging for the rest of the market.

     
 

The I-fund was up on Friday and remains in a rising parallel trading channel.  That could be a bear flag forming over the last 4-days, but the angle of the flag may be too sharp to be negative. 

   


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) closed with a small loss on Friday but the F-fund was given a gain because of the price on Thursday was a little underinflated.  Technically, the AGG filled that open gap but has not been able to advance further, and that is not uncommon for gaps.  There is a large open gap near 110 still out there and if that comes into the picture it would be a surprise given the fact that interest rates are rising (bond prices fall as yields rise), but if stocks decide to go into a funk, that could be a target for bonds.

    


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
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