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Market Commentary

May 25, 2018

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               


It was another case of a news driven emotional sharp move for stocks on Thursday, in this case an early sell-off, that was faded as the day went on, and that seems to be the theme lately.  After a slightly negative open, the Dow was down about 280-points 90-minutes into the trading day, but things stabilized and the indices caught a bid, and by the close they were almost where they opened, which was down modestly.  The Dow ended the day down 75-points. 
 
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Yesterday it was North Korea news out of Washington that seemed to trigger the "algo" traders to push on the sell side until it became overdone, and the dip buyers jumped in.  But right now neither the bulls nor the bears have been able to get much momentum going and that has kept us in a very tight trading range for the last two weeks.

The focus outside of the geopolitical events has been the yield on the 10-Year Treasury which dropped sharply early on Thursday but bounced back some by the close ending the day at 2.98%.  It filled the blue gap but now there are two open red gaps above.

                     


You would think that the bears would have the advantage on Friday as everyone fears the next tweet from the President on trade or North Korea over the long weekend, but every time I think that, the opposite seems to happen so I won't say it - although I think I already did.  :)

The TSP will be closed on Monday for the holiday.   Per tsp.gov, "Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (May 28) will be processed Tuesday night (May 29), at Tuesday's closing share prices."




The S&P 500 / C-fund still has a battle going on between the shorter-term bull flag (green) and the large intermediate-term bear flag (red).  Bull flags tend to break to the upside but the bear flag has been putting its thumb down keeping it below that rising resistance.  

     


The S-fund managed a tiny gain but the head test resistance has held for 2 weeks now.  On Wednesday we were talking about the importance of the 1405 area and it continues to hold there.  Same story going forward.

     
 

The Dow Transportation Index had a big day gaining over 1% on Thursday, and that put it back on top of that four month long trading range. 

      


It may have been helped with the price of oil falling over a dollar on the day.  Oil fell to test the 20-day EMA.  We said watch $71, which it actually fell through on Thursday but it closed basically in the area of that double dose of support.

       


The EAFE / I-fund did not rally but once again it seems like the U.S. stocks rally after the European markets close.  The dollar was down sharply early on Thursday but bounced back after filling an open gap, and that may have saved this from doing even more damage than the charts are showing.

      


The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) rallied strongly but hit the 50-day EMA and backed off a bit.  The larger blue open gap got filled but now there are two open gaps below, shown in red.  Still a tough looking chart with lots of resistance but the short-term momentum is on the bond bulls' side.

     


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  Have a great holiday weekend!  Remember those who sacrificed everything for our country, and all of us that they left behind. 

Tom Crowley


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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
 
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH (^GSPC)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
Source: https://finance.google.com/finance

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