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RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter & Afternoon Commentary

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Market Commentary

July 26, 2017

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 Today's Commentary         (Not seeing a current commentary?)               

After some strong early earnings reports before the bell on Tuesday morning, stocks opened sharply higher pushing several indices to new highs again.  The Dow gained 100-points, about 60-points off the opening high, but still a meaningful rally.  The S&P added 0.29% and small caps led adding about twice that.

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The Nasdaq lagged as we suspected - but still added a point - because of the reaction to Google, which was down almost 30-points on the day.  

We also got the highest Consumer Confidence Index reading since July 2001 yesterday.  That July 2001 CCI number actually preceded a very large decline in the summer of 2001 and can be considered a mark of overconfidence from consumers, but it is not an instant gratification-type indicator.  I suspect this indicates some weakness is on the horizon, but at this point who knows how much more this rally can give?  It seems relentless.
There is a two-day FOMC meeting this week which concludes today.  There is no expectations of a rate hike, but the policy statement might give investors clues for the coming meetings and what they may be planning next.

I have a very busy schedule over the next several days and into next week so I may not be available to respond to emails right away, and the next few commentaries should be brief.  The TSP Talk Plus System signals will be posted in the premium area as usual but if there are no changes, there may not be an email / text alert.  Sorry for any inconvenience.

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) made a new high yesterday but backed off from the intraday highs creating a minor negative reversal day, but still closed at a new high.  The 248 - 249 area looks like another layer of resistance, although resistance has been of little consequence to the market lately.  It just looks like there is a lot more room on the downside, but that doesn't mean it can't keep climbing along that rising resistance.


The DWCPF (S-fund) was the rising star on Tuesday and it has now held above that old resistance line for 5 days now. 


The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was up but lagged a bit with a rebound in the dollar yesterday.


I'm still keeping an eye on that German DAX which seems to be struggling and it is actually an important index for the global markets so it will be interesting if it continues trending lower from here.


Yesterday I mentioned the XLF looking like it was getting ready to breakout, and that probably meant bond yields may be getting ready to rise, and bond prices ready to fall.  The XLF did breakout of its bull flag yesterday....


... and bond yields did rally strongly...


While the AGG (bonds / F-fund) did fall.  It looks like this is in for a double top pullback. 


Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report.  We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems.  For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading.  We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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  The easiest way to print this commentary is to copy and paste above into a document like Word.

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
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S&P 500 (C Fund)
DWCPF (S Fund)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index (^DWCPF)
EFA (I Fund)
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA)
AGG (F Fund)
iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond (AGG)
20min. delay http://finance.yahoo.com

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