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Weekly TSP Wrap-up
from
TSP Talk
Stocks and the TSP funds were mixed last week as we saw strength in some
areas of the market, and some weakness in others. The dollar
continues to play a key roll in our TSP accounts.
For the week, the small and mid-caps of the S-funds led the way with a
decent 1.78% return. The C-fund slipped 0.35%, and
the story remains the same for the I-fund. It fell 1.05% because
of more strength from the dollar. The F-fund
(bonds) added 0.12%, and the G-fund picked up its typical meager 0.06%.
For the
month of December, the C and S funds remain positive but the rally in
the dollar in December has been too much for the I-fund, and it is now
down 0.79%, while the F-fund is off 0.59%. Here is what has
happened to the dollar this month...
Chart
provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com,
analysis by TSP Talk
The S&P 500, which is what our C-fund tracks, is still consolidating.
We were looking for a breakout to the upside on the last move higher,
but instead it came back and tested the lower end of its recent trading
range again.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com,
analysis by TSP Talk
Perhaps this coming week will be more accommodating for the bulls, as we
still have not had a Santa Claus rally, and we are due. Here is a
chart of the S&P 500's 55 year average (between 1950 and 2004) daily
returns of the trading days surrounding the Christmas Day, and
percentage of times they were positive.
Chart provided courtesy of
www.sentimentrader.com,
analysis by TSP Talk
-1 represents the trading day before Christmas, which this year would be
Thursday 12/24, and it's 55 year average return was almost 0.3% and it
is positive about 70% of the time.
+1 would be the trading day after or Monday 12/28. -5 was this
past Friday, and +4 is New Year's eve, etc.
The seasonal data is very strong but not every year ends on a high note
as it might suggest. I suspect this year will due pretty well, but
the market never ceases to surprise me, and if the S&P 500 decides to
break below that trading range we pointed out above (which would be
below about 1083), it would be a pretty good warning sign for us.
Good luck, and
thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another
TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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