Thread: AutoTracker Standings 2024

The Few that Outpace the C-fund

Over 570 non-premium TSP Talk AutoTracker members have been able to outperform the G-fund's 0.64% return this year. Over 340 members have been able to outpace the S-fund's 2.34% gain. But only three members have outmanuvered the C-fund 6.51% gain, along with the rest.

We're close to finishing up our second month of the year and there are only three at the top above the those who have held the C-fund all year:

totallykool - currently holding 100% L 2045-fund

HarleyLar - currently holding 100% C-fund

Sign_Stealer - currently 100% G-fund.

Tomorrow (May 31) ends the May AutoTracker Contest but it will take a good rally in stocks to top the current leader for the month:

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With a return of 6.57%, thewingreaper sits at the top with the best return for May. That return is going nowhere on the final day of the month while thewingreaper holds 100% G-fund. The next three returns are also from members who currently hold 100% G-fund. The current 5th place holder, ColonelFur, has a chance to climb that list tomorrow while they hold 90% of stocks across the TSP stock funds, but it will take a rally across the market to lift their 5.79% May return above thewingreaper's protected 6.57%.

Stocks are not putting on their best show right now, especially the C-fund. Investing fully in the large-cap stock fund today would have dropped your TSP by 0.6% Yet the S and I-fund both had decent days, both making their investors richer. The few investors who hold the I-fund enjoyed a gain of around 0.6% for the day.

The top of the TSP Talk AutoTracker is C-fund heavy. Among non-premium members, only three of the top 100 in the 2024 standings are holding 100% G-fund. The average C-fund allocation among the top 100 non-premium members is 86.0%. The second-highest is the S-fund at 5.7%.

That includes 54 members tied for third place in the non-premium standings who have not left 100% C-fund all year.

This approach has worked for these members so far this year, but will it work for the second half as well?

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A Quick Shift to the C-fund Yesterday

The average allocation of non-premium members took a significant single-day shift from the S-fund to the C-fund yesterday.

Yesterday the average C-fund allocation rose from 28.17% to 29.12%. Meanwhile, the average S-fund allocation dropped from 26.24% to 25.31%. That ~1% change is not common for a single day. However, some members jumped from 100% S-fund to 100% C-fund while others who were previously diversified between the two chose to lean into their C-fund investments.

The C-fund has been outperforming the S-fund so far in June, yet the S-fund did outperform the C-fund yesterday when this shift took place. These members who made these IFTs are looking smart today with the DWCPF (S-fund) down nearly twice as much as the S&P 500 (C-fund) in today's intraday trading.

Learn more about the difference between the two TSP funds in my blog: C Fund vs. S Fund: Which TSP Investment is Right for You

We have a new leader in the TSP Talk AutoTracker.

Johnny held the number one position for some time, (you've noticed if you have access to the premium standings). But after Johnny left stocks for 100% G-fund early in June, Timberwoof has been able to close the gap between them with their 100% C-fund allocation and now outright holds the number one position.

Now Johnny is on the verge of leaving the top and falling below the C-fund herd. Johnny's 2024 gain is now just 0.07% higher than the C-fund's return. The S&P 500 is up this morning but has quickly pulled off its highs. A modest gain of 0.08% or higher would knock Johnny down to the 63rd position in the standings. Johnny could reemerge to the top if the S&P 500 starts to top for the month. Both Johnny and Timberwoof have IFTs to work with in June.


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There is a new sheriff in town.

After weeks of only Timberwoof outperforming the C-fund in the 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker standings, the S-fund rally has pushed three more members above the C-fund herd and into the top 4:

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Our new 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker leader BadKharma moved from the C-fund to the S-fund on Monday and we noticed on the Last Look Report. Yesterday's outperformance of the S-fund over the C-fund pushed Badkharma from 69th to number 1 in one day. Of course, that jump is easy with the 2024 C-fund herd taking up 59 spots. Outperform the C-fund and you'll be on top.

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Originally Posted by TommyIV

There is a new sheriff in town.

After weeks of only Timberwoof outperforming the C-fund in the 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker standings, the S-fund rally has pushed three more members above the C-fund herd and into the top 4:

newleaders.gif

Our new 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker leader BadKharma moved from the C-fund to the S-fund on Monday and we noticed on the Last Look Report. Yesterday's outperformance of the S-fund over the C-fund pushed Badkharma from 69th to number 1 in one day. Of course, that jump is easy with the 2024 C-fund herd taking up 59 spots. Outperform the C-fund and you'll be on top.

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BadKharma has also the #1 June Winner...

Originally Posted by TommyIV

There is a new sheriff in town.

After weeks of only Timberwoof outperforming the C-fund in the 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker standings, the S-fund rally has pushed three more members above the C-fund herd and into the top 4:

newleaders.gif

Our new 2024 TSP Talk AutoTracker leader BadKharma moved from the C-fund to the S-fund on Monday and we noticed on the Last Look Report. Yesterday's outperformance of the S-fund over the C-fund pushed Badkharma from 69th to number 1 in one day. Of course, that jump is easy with the 2024 C-fund herd taking up 59 spots. Outperform the C-fund and you'll be on top.

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With both the "C" fund and "S" fund down about the same percentage. It will be interesting to see who the top dog is after 4pm. Maybe by a few hundredths of a point.

Originally Posted by nasa1974

With both the "C" fund and "S" fund down about the same percentage. It will be interesting to see who the top dog is after 4pm. Maybe by a few hundredths of a point.

Great Point!

And I'll say, BadKharma is holding 100% S-fund and Timberwoof is holding 100% C-fund. Both Johnny and gitkrunk hold two different mixes of the C and S-funds. Those proportions will be kept private to respect the Premium Memberships they pay for, but I wonder if those with the C-fund heavy allocations will float to the top two.

COB 7/17, it's BadKharma by 0.02%

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Timberwoof is back on top

Although the S&P 500 was first to slip into negative territory this morning, the S-fund went on to close with a greater loss than the C-fund today.

Consequently, Badkharma's 2024 return slipped down to be even with the C-fund's. Conversely, Timberwoof's return floated back to the top of the TSP Talk AutoTracker Standings.

Badkharma moved back to the C-fund today, so now these two both hold 100% C-fund.

Johnny and gitkrunk still contend in the second and third position below Timbewoof and above the C-fund herd, both holding a mix of the C and S-fund, but at different proportions.

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