Good morning
Finishing out the week, our Top-600 lost -.47% MTD while the Top-50 gained .20% (thanks to the rise of G-Funders). Allocation wise across the tracker there was little movement, with only .4% adding to the G/F funds.
20231023-AT.png
On the MTD Statistical range, we’ve now finished trading Day 15. From the previous 21-years at this stage of the chart we were down 8 times on trading day 15, closing the month down 5 of those 8 times. From this limited data, we could estimate 62% odds of closing the month down an estimated -3%.
20231023-MTD.png
For some context, October’s close has one the widest percentage range of gains & losses (when compared to the other months). The Averages-of-losses sits at -4.05% or SPX 4114. This is also a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the Mar-23 Low to the July-23 High. From Friday's close this is only -2.62% below us.
20231023-MTD1.png
For myself, this SPX 4114 level might be just the spot I’d love to plant that 2nd IFT, kicking in the last 10% of G into C. Truth be told, I’d be just as happy to get that last IFT in at any level lower than the previous, so we’ll see how it works out.
20231023-jth.png
Lots of earnings this week. it should be fun to watch
These 4 companies make up just over 16% of the S&P 500.
Tuesday - Microsoft/Google
Wednesday - Facebook (Meta)
Thursday - Amazon
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