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Thread: JTH's Account Talk

  1. #9337

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    Default I want my -10% correction!

    Good morning...I want my -10% correction!

    As we’ve seen for much of 2023, the S&P 500’s Top-10 weighted stocks have provided the bulk of the lifting. In theory, If we were to remove only the Top 4 market-cap weighted stocks, the S&P 500’s 11.42% YTD gain would be erased.


    At this time, the Top-50 have an index weight of 56.7% with 32% above their 50-SMA & 66% above their 200-SMA. So while the short-medium term has taken damage, the long-term view is still in the green.

    20231020-0.png

    As for the 11 SPDR Sectors, YTD if you remove the two best performing sectors (Tech & Comm Services) the S&P 500 would be flat for the year. On the Momentum columns we can see the damage where the weighted scores are very low.

    20231020-1.png

    Looking at the Yearly historical averages (Monthly Chart) we are still above the 63-Year 8.15% average, so it’s not as bad as it could be. But we have “almost” tagged the 12-Month-SMA @ 4211, for me, that’s an important caution flag. It’s also the same general area both the 200/500 Daily SMA reside at. A break below those levels could just be the catalyst we need for some genuine capitulation.

    20231020-3.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  3. #9338

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    Default Re: Daily Gaps

    Good morning

    Finishing out the week, our Top-600 lost -.47% MTD while the Top-50 gained .20% (thanks to the rise of G-Funders). Allocation wise across the tracker there was little movement, with only .4% adding to the G/F funds.
    20231023-AT.png

    On the MTD Statistical range, we’ve now finished trading Day 15. From the previous 21-years at this stage of the chart we were down 8 times on trading day 15, closing the month down 5 of those 8 times. From this limited data, we could estimate 62% odds of closing the month down an estimated -3%.
    20231023-MTD.png

    For some context, October’s close has one the widest percentage range of gains & losses (when compared to the other months). The Averages-of-losses sits at -4.05% or SPX 4114. This is also a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the Mar-23 Low to the July-23 High. From Friday's close this is only -2.62% below us.
    20231023-MTD1.png

    For myself, this SPX 4114 level might be just the spot I’d love to plant that 2nd IFT, kicking in the last 10% of G into C. Truth be told, I’d be just as happy to get that last IFT in at any level lower than the previous, so we’ll see how it works out.
    20231023-jth.png


    Lots of earnings this week. it should be fun to watch
    These 4 companies make up just over 16% of the S&P 500.
    Tuesday - Microsoft/Google
    Wednesday - Facebook (Meta)
    Thursday - Amazon
    Last edited by JTH; 10-22-2023 at 09:27 AM.
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  5. #9339

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    Do we have low volatility? YTD the 10-Best days have earned 17.39%, while the 10-Worst days have lost -16.11% Thus far in 2023, we’ve had 1 day > 2% and 1 day < -2%.

    In contrast, in 2022 the 10-Best days earned 30.95%, while the 10-Worst days have lost -35.12%. 2022 had 23 days > 2% and 23 days < -2%.
    ____
    Anyhow, looking at the Day Of Week chart, we have 15 consecutive positive Mondays. From 1959, across 3,129 Mondays, the highest 27-Monday win ratio was last Monday at 88.89%

    For some comparisons, here’s the average 27-Monday Win ratio by decade.

    1960s average was 40.73% highest was 59.26%
    1970s average was 43.91% highest was 66.67%
    1980s average was 50.96% highest was 70.37%
    1990s average was 57.86% highest was 77.78%
    2000s average was 49.30% highest was 74.07%
    2010s average was 53.01% highest was 81.48%
    2020s average is currently at 56.57% with the highest at 88.89%

    Meanwhile, on the 27-event time-frame Tue-Fri continues to under-perform.
    20231023-DoW.png

    Here’s the latest gap data showing how the S&P 500 tends to close based on the opening gap’s range.
    20231023-GAP.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  7. #9340

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    This morning the S&P 500 gaped down -.33% at the open.

    The last 100 times we gaped down -.30% or less:

    The win ratio was 15% (how often the day closed positive)
    The Average-of-Gains was .77% (all 15 positive closes)
    The Total Average was -.81% (all 100 closes)
    The Average-of-losses was -1.09% (all 85 negative closes)


    20231023-GAP-100.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  9. #9341

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    9-SEP
    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Good morning (some random thoughts)

    SPX 4207 is a 50% retracement of the Yearly Low to High. Perhaps in October the 200-SMA can climb to this level, and provide support for a test. From current levels a test of 4207 is -5.02% below us, and -8.66% below the yearly top.
    Attachment 58800
    Friday was our 1st close below the 200-SMA since the March lows.
    Achievement sorta unlocked....
    20231023-50.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  11. #9342

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    Some thoughts on Crypto. I entered the space in Mar-21 and caught a significant climb to the top, wisely keeping the crypto accounts to less than 10% of the overall portfolio. Much of these gains were fed into the stock market, so when prices were rising, life was good. While the 24/7 ability to trade was nice, I did get suckered into the crypto-interest hype, 15K evaporated when the Ponzi-scheme Celsius folded. Anyways, I'll be liquidating the rest of my BTC/ETH holdings and leaving the crypto space this year.

    Aside from the continuous lack of regulation and scammer pollution, the biggest issue I had with Crypto was managing the taxes. Across those 3700+ transactions, it was difficult to accurately convert your trades into USD value across multiple trading platforms, it was a huge stressful hassle. You can pay a service to manage your trades for tax purposes, but it's easy for them to screw it up, and it often involves your own personal intervention to correct the data.

    Since Bitcoin is in the news, I'll point out it's down about -50% from the highs, and needs to regain another 97% to regain what it's lost.
    BTC.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats


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  13. #9343

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    9-SEP

    Friday was our 1st close below the 200-SMA since the March lows.
    Achievement sorta unlocked....
    Good call!
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #9344

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Good call!
    Thanks Tom, I'm glad to see this 50% retracement materialize in October. Things are a bit overpriced and not reflective of the true value, I don't necessarily want a crash, but if we can't prune this stuff back, we might just kill the whole tree.

    For some perspective, I drafted this chart, showing the 63-Year YTD percentage range on our Monthly closing prices. It shows just how overvalued we were back in July, and how we are still slightly overvalued in October MTD. Honestly despite the recent concerning news, I'm a bit more focused on what will happen in November if we cant get a budget passed...

    20231024-YTD.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  17. #9345

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    Default Re: Sunday

    This morning the S&P 500 gaped up .50% at the open.

    The last 100 times we gaped up the win ratio on the close was pretty good.
    20231024-GAPS.png

    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  19. #9346

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    Default Re: Sunday

    S&P 500 30-Minute chart showing some resistance in the 4255 area, we had a similar pocket of resistance in early October.

    4255.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  21. #9347

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    Default Re: I want my -10% correction!

    Good morning

    Since we have now re-visited SPX 4203 (a 50% retracement of 2023's yearly low/high) I thought It would be a good time to look for the next significant low.

    October 2022 was a 50% retracement from the Mar-2020 Pandemic Low to the Jan-2022 Market peak. This makes SPX 4040.87 a 50% retracement of the Oct-2022 low to the most recent Jul-2023 highs. If you'll notice on this monthly chart, we have not had 3 consecutive down months since coming off the pandemic lows. If this October closes down, it will be the 3rd down month...

    20231025-001.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  23. #9348

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    Default Re: Daily Gaps

    Good morning

    From 1960 to 2022 (63-Years) October closed down 38% of the time (24 times). When October closed down, November closed up 71% of the time (17 of 24 times). Of those 24 times October closed down, the best was the Oct/Nov combo of 2020 with a -2.77% loss in Oct and 10.75% gain in November.

    While being down -2.36% MTD hasn’t been good, it could always be worse. Here’s some examples of some horrible Oct/Nov combos.


    1929 lost -30.64% (Followed by the Great Depression)


    1973 lost -11.52% (Part of the oil embargo, max drawdown of -49.93%)


    1987 lost -30.29% (Black Monday, took 20 Months to recover the Oct/Nov drop)


    2008 lost -24.43% (Financial crisis, max drawdown of -57.69%)

    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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