Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Good afternoon

BLOG: STATS FOR OCT

Going into the 1st week of October, very little has changed allocation wise, and the YTD gains were relatively flat.20231001-AT.png

Good morning

Since 2002, this is the first time we've closed up 12 consecutive Mondays. Aside from Monday, the win ratio for all other days is below average.
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The Oct Monthly stats are posted in the blog, but I did forget to post September's MTD results based on the MTD historical range The results posted below show we closed the month down strong (when compared to the previous 21-years. October's MTD range chart was posted a few days ago, I'll post updates every 5 trading days.
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Good morning

While September wasn't a great month, (within the long-term perspective) the damage has been minimal. In the short-term, 33 of the Top-50 closed below their 10-SMA, while 38 closed below their 50-SMA. As per the usual this year, the majority of the S&P 500's performance has been lifted by the large caps, partially the Top-10 which currently make up a weighted 30.6% of the S&P 500.
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For the Sectors, we can see where the real damage is, and how this is not what a healthy market should look like. We are running on 3 of 11 cylinders. While the S&P 500 is up 11.69% YTD. If we were to remove the Technology, Discretionary & Comm Services, the Index would be up down -2%
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Not a great start to October.

IFT EoB today, from 40G/60C to 10G/90C

Good morning

I'm now 3 IFTs into the pullback. Currently watching to see if we can tag that 50% retracement of the yearly high/low. Anything below this 4207.97 level might entice me to throw in the last 10% into the C-fund with a 2nd IFT and thus be fully committed.
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Admittedly, I've been light on risk this year (too light) but now that we've entered the 4th quarter, I look forward to taking on more risk. Outside of the TSP paper-trading, I'm 40% cash and increasing risk as we progress further into this pullback.
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Good morning

September 2023’s 9-Month performance was 11.68%

Based on history, September’s 9-Month performance data suggest a 98% chance of closing 2023 positive, and an 81% chance of closing 2023 above September’s 4288 close.
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Happy Friday

On the Daily timeframe going back 21-years, we can see the first 9 trading days of October have mixed win ratios. Perhaps next week we’ll find a bottom, then kick it up as we enter trading day 10 on 13-Oct which has historically seen the beginning of an 8-day patch of green.
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I'll post the 4th quarter blog on Sunday, have a great weekend!

God

​Good morning

From the Top-600 perspective, 6% of you are outperforming the C-Fund. Id estimate those numbers are impressive when you consider the limited fund options along with the 2-IFT limit. Frankly, I just don't think many fund managers could do much better (given those circumstances).

Quarter 4 is here, which traditionally provides the best opportunities of the year. BLOG: STATS FOR Q4
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Good morning (some speculation)

If I were to guess what the market thinks... I’d look at the 200-SMA & the 50% yearly low/high retracement at 4207 to provide support. If support breaks, then we might expect to test the next lower yearly Fibonacci level at 4113.

From Friday’s close it would cost us -4.52% to test this 4113 level. At this stage of the game, we would have then breached -10% from the top, and thus it would be termed a correction. And with that correction perhaps it may bring a fresh news cycle where the world is ending and sellers get flushed out. This could be the pruning we need before we can go higher.

Conversely, a 2.16% move higher would fill the overhead gap, but given the market’s lower swing high/low conditions, I’d view that more as a short-term opportunity, and look for the markets to sell-off after the gap-fill.
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We are 5 trading days into the MTD statistical range. At this early stage of the chart, the previous 21-years (trading day 5) was up 13 times, closing the month up 10 times. The monthly closing average of those 10 years was 5.14%. Of the other 3 times October closed down, the average was -2.24%
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From last week, little has changed on the DoW Chart. The last 13 Monday’s have closed up, while Tue-Fri continue to underperform. Perhaps this Monday, we can finally break the Monday win streak…
20231009-DoW.png

Good morning (Terrible Tuesday)

Monday was one of those rare occasions where both SPX gapped down at the open, and the 12-Noon IFT-Deadline was down, yet SPX closed the day up. In 2023, SPX gapped down & closed the day up 32 of 193 times (about 16.5%). From those 32 times the next day’s win ratio was 41%

Looking at today, the last 5 Tuesdays have closed down, the last 11 have an 18% win ratio, and the last 27 have a 33% win ratio. The chart below shows the win ratios for our days of the week on the YTD timeframe. Here we can see (thus far) Tuesday has been the weakest day of the week.
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MTD we are up 1.11%, from the previous 63 Octobers the average monthly close was 1.09%
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