Page 777 of 806 FirstFirst ... 277677727767775776777778779787 ... LastLast
Results 9,313 to 9,324 of 9665

Thread: JTH's Account Talk

  1. #9313

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,533
    Blog Entries
    310

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    Here's a preview into October's MTD statistical range. From the previous 21-years, if the 1st day of Oct closed up, the month closed up 10 of 13 times. If the 1st day of Oct closed down, the month closed down 4 of 8 times.

    20230928-OCT-MTD.png

    Also, on Wednesday we've kissed September's average intra-month low (the average % low of months which closed down).

    20230928-OCT-MTD-1.png
    Last edited by JTH; 09-28-2023 at 04:31 AM.

  2.  
  3. #9314

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,533
    Blog Entries
    310

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good afternoon

    BLOG:
    STATS FOR OCT

    Going into the 1st week of October, very little has changed allocation wise, and the YTD gains were relatively flat.
    20231001-AT.png

  4.  
  5. #9315

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,533
    Blog Entries
    310

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    Since 2002, this is the first time we've closed up 12 consecutive Mondays. Aside from Monday, the win ratio for all other days is below average.
    20231001-DoW.png

    The Oct Monthly stats are posted in the blog, but I did forget to post September's MTD results based on the MTD historical range The results posted below show we closed the month down strong (when compared to the previous 21-years. October's MTD range chart was posted a few days ago, I'll post updates every 5 trading days.
    20231001-SEP-MTD.png





  6.  
  7. #9316

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,533
    Blog Entries
    310

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    While September wasn't a great month, (within the long-term perspective) the damage has been minimal. In the short-term, 33 of the Top-50 closed below their 10-SMA, while 38 closed below their 50-SMA. As per the usual this year, the majority of the S&P 500's performance has been lifted by the large caps, partially the Top-10 which currently make up a weighted 30.6% of the S&P 500.
    20231003-TOP10.png


    For the Sectors, we can see where the real damage is, and how this is not what a healthy market should look like. We are running on 3 of 11 cylinders. While the S&P 500 is up 11.69% YTD. If we were to remove the Technology, Discretionary & Comm Services, the Index would be up down -2%
    20231003-SPDR.png

  8.  
  9. #9317

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,533
    Blog Entries
    310

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Not a great start to October.

    IFT EoB today, from 40G/60C to 10G/90C

  10.  
  11. #9318

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,533
    Blog Entries
    310

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    I'm now 3 IFTs into the pullback. Currently watching to see if we can tag that 50% retracement of the yearly high/low. Anything below this 4207.97 level might entice me to throw in the last 10% into the C-fund with a 2nd IFT and thus be fully committed.
    20231004-001.png

    Admittedly, I've been light on risk this year (too light) but now that we've entered the 4th quarter, I look forward to taking on more risk. Outside of the TSP paper-trading, I'm 40% cash and increasing risk as we progress further into this pullback.
    20231004-002.png

  12.  
  13. #9319

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,533
    Blog Entries
    310

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    September 2023’s 9-Month performance was 11.68%

    Based on history, September’s 9-Month performance data suggest a 98% chance of closing 2023 positive, and an 81% chance of closing 2023 above September’s 4288 close.
    20231005-001.png

  14.  
  15. #9320

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,533
    Blog Entries
    310

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Happy Friday

    On the Daily timeframe going back 21-years, we can see the first 9 trading days of October have mixed win ratios. Perhaps next week we’ll find a bottom, then kick it up as we enter trading day 10 on 13-Oct which has historically seen the beginning of an 8-day patch of green.
    20231006-001.png

    I'll post the 4th quarter blog on Sunday, have a great weekend!

  16.  
  17. #9321

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    God

  18.  
  19. #9322

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,533
    Blog Entries
    310

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    ​Good morning

    From the Top-600 perspective, 6% of you are outperforming the C-Fund. Id estimate those numbers are impressive when you consider the limited fund options along with the 2-IFT limit. Frankly, I just don't think many fund managers could do much better (given those circumstances).

    Quarter 4 is here, which traditionally provides the best opportunities of the year. BLOG:
    STATS FOR Q4
    20231008-001.png

  20.  
  21. #9323

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,533
    Blog Entries
    310

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning (some speculation)

    If I were to guess what the market thinks... I’d look at the 200-SMA & the 50% yearly low/high retracement at 4207 to provide support. If support breaks, then we might expect to test the next lower yearly Fibonacci level at 4113.

    From Friday’s close it would cost us -4.52% to test this 4113 level. At this stage of the game, we would have then breached -10% from the top, and thus it would be termed a correction. And with that correction perhaps it may bring a fresh news cycle where the world is ending and sellers get flushed out. This could be the pruning we need before we can go higher.

    Conversely, a 2.16% move higher would fill the overhead gap, but given the market’s lower swing high/low conditions, I’d view that more as a short-term opportunity, and look for the markets to sell-off after the gap-fill.
    20231008-001.png

    We are 5 trading days into the MTD statistical range. At this early stage of the chart, the previous 21-years (trading day 5) was up 13 times, closing the month up 10 times. The monthly closing average of those 10 years was 5.14%. Of the other 3 times October closed down, the average was -2.24%
    20231008-MTD.png

    From last week, little has changed on the DoW Chart. The last 13 Monday’s have closed up, while Tue-Fri continue to underperform. Perhaps this Monday, we can finally break the Monday win streak…
    20231009-DoW.png

  22.  
  23. #9324

    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Europe
    Posts
    8,533
    Blog Entries
    310

    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning (Terrible Tuesday)

    Monday was one of those rare occasions where both SPX gapped down at the open, and the 12-Noon IFT-Deadline was down, yet SPX closed the day up. In 2023, SPX gapped down & closed the day up 32 of 193 times (about 16.5%). From those 32 times the next day’s win ratio was 41%

    Looking at today, the last 5 Tuesdays have closed down, the last 11 have an 18% win ratio, and the last 27 have a 33% win ratio. The chart below shows the win ratios for our days of the week on the YTD timeframe. Here we can see (thus far) Tuesday has been the weakest day of the week.
    20231009-002.png

    MTD we are up 1.11%, from the previous 63 Octobers the average monthly close was 1.09%
    20231009-001.png


  24.  
Page 777 of 806 FirstFirst ... 277677727767775776777778779787 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)
JTH's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)
JTH's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)
JTH's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)
JTH's Account Talk
(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes