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It's finally here

My favorite month of the year, where the weather gets cooler, the kids go back to school, and my vacations get cheaper

A quick review, closing out the month our S&P 500 finished at 2.28% it was our 20th best of the 64 months of August.

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On the YTD scale, this Aug closed 18.42% YTD, which is the 9th best of 64. Historically speaking, this could put us on target for a 25% to 30% EoY ...

You ever watch a TV show and the entire episode just talks about things that happened in previous episodes?

That's what this is.

S&P 500: A Primer For August & September


Statistically, September is the worst performing month of the year, with a 43% win ratio, and the worst average returns of all months. Thus (in times of uncertainty) August is a good month to decide how to be positioned for September.

Why?

The September low ...

Stocks rallied early on Thursday despite the selling in Nvidia, but by the close the bears made their presence known and the large caps closed mixed. The Dow gained 244-points, but the Nasdaq closed lower, and the S&P 500 was flat. Small caps and the I-fund both held onto solid gains. The PCE inflation data report comes out before today's opening bell, and it could be another market mover.

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Stocks were down yesterday leading into the after hours earnings release from Nvidia. Let's cut right to the chase; Nvidia reported, beat estimates, but it was a little short or just inline with the whisper number that was circulating, and that's not good enough. After losing 2% before reporting, it was down another 7 to 8% in after hours trading so that sets up an interesting day of trading today.

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Stocks were slightly higher yesterday, although small caps lagged and closed lower, as investors nervously, but eagerly await Nvidia's earnings as the market looks for the next catalyst. Will they deliver? Trading volume has been light as the summer vacations continue into labor Day weekend. Seasonality gets bearish in September although there is a window of strength for the bulls before the worst kicks in.

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