Recent Blogs Posts

The stock and bond markets got another dose of good economic news as the relief of the latest CPI data gave investors another reason to believe that inflation may be under control. It's not falling, but going up less quickly, and that was enough to see new highs in the indices as investors can rule out any new rate hikes, and perhaps increase the chances of a rate cut in June. Bond yields and the dollar dropped sharply and that has been the recipe for a rally in the equities market.
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A late afternoon rally took the indices from slight losses to hefty gains on Tuesday as investors ignored the hotter than expected PPI number to push the S&P 500 closer to its highs for the year, and in the case of the Nasdaq, making new highs. Small caps and the I-fund had good days as yields and the dollar were down - again a surprise given the inflationary data.

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Where The Money Is Made & Lost: The Twelve Months

Part 1: Where The Money Is Made & Lost
Part 2: Presidential Cycles
Part 3: The Four Quarters
Part 4: The Twelve Months

Here’s the Top 20%, Middle 60% & Bottom 20% of months sorted into each of the 12 months.

Truncated: Our monthly Top & Bottom 20% are “outliers”. When it’s really good or bad, these are the months which have frequently given us extreme gains & losses.

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Stocks were mixed, flattish, lifeless yet buoyant, all at the same time yesterday while awaiting this week's inflationary data. The Dow had its first losing day after 8 straight gains, the S&P 500, small caps, and the I-fund were flat - probably the most flat that I have ever seen all three funds on the same day. Bonds were up as yields moved slightly lower, and the meme stocks made an appearance yesterday.

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The boring stocks led the market on Friday as the Dow made it 8 straight winning sessions in a row led by companies like McDonald's, Honeywell, Verizon, and American Express. Meanwhile the Nasdaq was down, small caps were down, market breadth was negative and it was directly related to yields rising and, as you'll see below, that's going to be the key in the next couple of weeks as the indices approach or test their prior highs.

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