TSP | Thrift Savings Plan - Talk

Intrepid_ Timer's 2012 Year End Report

 Below are my returns for various investment vehicles using my timing system for 2012:

Actual TSP return using only my system’s first buy signal for equities each month:

13.13% (This was below my goal of averaging 24% per year)

IRA return using all my system’s signals with funds similar to our S and F funds: 

37.60% (This was very close to my goal of averaging 40% per year)

2X Mutual fund returns using both long/short funds:

UAPIX/UCPIX (small caps): 72.80% (This is within my goal of averaging around 65-75% per year)

UNPIX/UXPIX (internationals):  53.07% (This is below my goal of averaging around 65-75% per year)

3X ETF returns using both long/short funds:

TNA/TZA (small caps): 111.57% (This is above my goal of at least doubling my investment each year)

FAS/FAZ (financials):  157.96% (This is above my goal of at least doubling my investment each year)

DZK/DPK (internationals):  77.54% (This is below my goal of at least doubling my investment each year)

As you can see, it was mixed bag as far as reaching my investment goals this year. The most disappointing was my TSP return. With my system returning 37.60% for the year and my actual TSP only returning 13.13%, it is quite apparent that my system’s second buy signal of the month produced better returns in multiple months. Keep in mind that my system typically gives two buy signals per month and my “Intrepid_Timer” strategy is to always use the first buy signal with TSP as this is how all my back tested results were derived. Over the past seven years, consistently using the first buy signal every month has been the best choice, just not this year.

Even though my biggest monthly loss for TSP came in May, the most disappointing month was actually November. This was because the market closures after Hurricane Sandy threw my timing off as most of my indicators continue to be trade on a worldwide basis, even though US markets are closed. There were two ways I could have played this event and ended up playing it the wrong way. I had not gone through an unannounced market closure before, but it was a lesson learned and next time I’ll know better how to play such an occasion. I did let subscribers know at the time that the market closures may throw off my timing system and would probably take a couple of trades to figure out if it did or not. Those who waited were rewarded.

I added two new, relatively minor, proprietary timing patterns to my system this year and in November, I also replaced my lowest weighted indicator with another one that I was looking at as a confirmation indicator for how much I wanted to initially invest with my ETF trades. All of these would have increased my profits for the year and am most excited about adding this new indicator to my timing system.

This year, I will be replacing the 3X ETFs DZK and DPK on my daily spreadsheets with ERX (long) and ERY (short).These are energy sector 3X ETFs and will give subscribers an opportunity to see how my system performs in this particular sector. These funds also trade with higher daily volumes than the two aforementioned international funds. This is important when trying to get a good intra-day price.

I will be ending my “Intrepid_Trending” strategy this year as I’m really not a big fan of timing the markets on a monthly basis and this strategy will consistently underperform my “Intrepid_Timer” strategy and/or allocation. If one chooses to do so, this strategy can still be easily followed on one’s own and you can send me a private message if you need help following it.

Also, I will be starting a new account called “I_T_Personal” in which I’ll be given more freedom to choose which signal I want to use each month and I may even move into the C and/or I funds instead of just the S fund at times.. Most of the time I’ll just be following my “Intrepid_Timer” moves, but this just gives me an opportunity to heed my own warnings when I see something that could spell trouble in the markets and to go with the signal that I think will give me the opportunity to make the most profit, but not take away from the accountability and historic returns of my system. Please keep in mind that if I choose to go with the second buy signal in any given month, I could be out of equities for most of the month if that signal doesn’t come until the last week, or last day, of the month. Many don’t have the patience to do that, especially if the markets are going up.

My “Intrepid_Timer” account will continue to ALWAYS use the first buy signal of each month to move into the S fund, the impending sell signal to move into the F fund and back to the G fund after that. This is how all my back tested results were derived.

I am excited about the prospects of 2013 for traders, but not so much for buy and holders. Last year I spotted the S&P 500 an 8% lead by the end of Feb and ended the year down only 0.22%, so I’m looking forward to keeping the momentum going. Keep in mind that this was with TSP and with the IFT limitations we have, it’s like fighting with one hand tied behind our backs. I’m up 58.37% with TSP since the beginning of 2010, which is when I finished the developing of my system (for the most part) while the S&P 500, which is the benchmark by what traders and investors judge their returns by, is up 27.89%, so it is possible. I will continue to work to make my system even better……..

Have a Happy and Prosperous New Year everyone!

Mike “Intrepid_Timer”