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Fund share prices as of: 8/02/07
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Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)
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You know the routine Volatility is back as we saw yet another triple digit move in the Dow, and like Tuesday, most of Wednesday's big move came in the last half hour of trading. Today's jobs report should keep the roller coaster ride going. My thinking on the jobs report is that a weak number could spook the market, but with the Fed on deck this coming Tuesday, a weak number would also put an interest rate cut back on the radar. There are many who believe we should get a cut based on the subprime lending and housing issues. A weak report would add fuel to that argument. On the other hand, an overly strong report will tell us the economy is still on track, but the rate cut would be less likely. Which way it goes, I don't know. I received a lot of email from people yesterday asking about the interfund transfer I made in the long-term inactive account. Apparently some of you are getting the different services confused. Let me go over the services and accounts we track here: My personal TSP trading account: This is what I do in my TSP account and what I talk about in these market commentary every day. I am fairly active making 20 or more transfers per year. This is what I do and I walk you through what I am doing and why I do it. I have not been doing well and you should probably not follow what I do as I have my own personal situation and do what I do for my own reasons that may or may not be right for you. It is more for accountability purposes. The Long-term inactive account: This is a hypothetical account I started to track a few years ago for people who do not want to be very active in their TSP accounts. This account (which is not real) makes one or two, maybe three, transfers per year and it has done rather well. RevShark's TSP Timing Newsletter: This is written by professional trader and hedge fund manager James "RevShark" DePorre. RevShark is not a government employee so he does not have a TSP account, but he does trade a hypothetical account in this service to tell you what he would be doing. This is a paid subscription service. Trader Fred's TSP Trading System: This sophisticated system was created by a retired Silicon Valley pioneer and it gives very clear buy and sell signals to determine where to allocate the TSP funds. All four of the above services offer email alerts and if you signed up for them you could get one from any one of these services that gives a signal. The Sentiment Survey System: I send out a poll each week to get our members to reply if they are bullish or bearish on stocks for the following week. I post those results on the site and those results generate buy and sell signals. I do not send an email alert for these buy and sell signals but they are on the site and I mention them in my commentary a couple of times each week. The Ebbchart System is another trading system giving specific buy and sell signals in either the I, G, or F funds. When the system is on a buy, it moves to 100% I-fund but basically you want to get fully invested in any of the stock funds. If it is on a sell signal it indicates whether to get into the G fund or the F fund. This system is very active and is not currently part of the email alert service. To get the current signal, you'll want to check in daily to see what the EbbTracker is saying. Divot's Market Debrief: This a new market commentary written by a member of the military. The author also gives his recommended allocations but it is not current part of the email alert service. If you are on the email alert list and get an alert, take a look to see which service or system is giving the signal. For example, if you are following Trader Fred's system verbatim, and it is on a sell signal, but you receive an email alert with a buy signal from the long-term inactive account, you probably want to ignore it. Getting the systems and service mixed up will give you unpredictable results. Trader Fred's TSP Trader System remains on a sell signal. He mentioned to me that another "pile-up" formation is starting to form and we could see another big move in the coming days. Perhaps the Fed will have something to do with that on Tuesday. We have been having big moves almost daily lately so I'm not sure what to expect. See what Trader Fred has to say today on his system page. The EbbChart System is on the sidelines today and Ebbnflow has now posted Monday's allocation on the ebbchart system page. The Sentiment Survey came in at 48% bulls, 34% bears which is neutral. That 1.41 ratio keeps the system on a buy signal for next week. The longer-term inactive account is now back in a 100% stock allocation after holding 25% cash (G-Fund) since January. See www.tsptalk.com/allocation.html for more information. That's all for today. Currently 100% F fund, but that could change. Have a great weekend. Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.
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