|
|
|
TSP Talk |
2008 EbbChart Trading System Return as of - 05/09/08
|
EbbChart |
System |
G Fund |
F Fund |
C Fund |
S Fund |
I Fund |
20% Each |
|
TSP System: |
(3.56%) |
1.22% |
2.35% |
(4.77%) |
(3.74%) |
(3.80%) |
(1.75%) |
|
|
|
L 2040 |
L 2030 |
L 2020 |
L 2010 |
L INC |
|
|
ETF System: |
(11.60%) |
(3.02%) |
(2.47%) |
(1.80%) |
(0.52%) |
0.37% |
|
2007 EbbChart Trading System Return
|
EbbChart |
System |
G Fund |
F Fund |
C Fund |
S Fund |
I Fund |
20% Each |
|
2007 Totals: |
20.01% |
4.87% |
7.09% |
5.54% |
5.49% |
11.43% |
6.89% |
|
|
|
L 2040 |
L 2030 |
L 2020 |
L 2010 |
L INC |
|
|
|
|
7.36% |
7.14% |
6.87% |
6.40% |
5.56% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
The EbbChart Trading System |
The EbbChart System can be access on the
Premium Services Page.
View Sample EbbChart
Signals and
Commentary
About the EbbChart System:
I started collecting market data on a daily basis after the dot-com bubble era. Last year (2006), my system was based solely on tracking the I-fund. With this system, I was able to achieve over 32% in 2006. This year I incorporated the C-fund and the S-fund into the system to be tracked alongside the I-fund. The database that keeps track of the funds individually is called the "EbbTracker."
The "EbbChart" was designed to show all three separate funds being tracked at the same time. A green (buy) or red (sell) signal is assigned to each fund every singe trading day. For the most part, this is how the system goes: two or more green signals, we go to equities (S/I-fund); two or more red signals, we go to safe haven (G/F-fund). The new system enables us to cross-check the funds against each other and help us determine our move for the day. On a sidenote, the new system has beaten the old system (ebbtracker's I-fund) in eight of the nine months so far this year.
I won't go into detail on how I gather my data, but I can say that these are entered and saved into the ebbtracker. These crunched-up numbers are like snapshots of past historical market patterns. The thousands of accumulated patterns (off-shoot patterns included) are used to compare it with today's market patterns. From the matching patterns, we get to identify the trends (uptrends or downtrends) that develop, and last but not the least, the cycles are used to define the length of the trends. That, in a nutshell, is how we get the green (buy) and red (sell) signals for each fund everyday.
- Ebb
Developed by ebbnflow
The System uses the ebbtracker's I-fund with simple cross-checking
rules:
a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more green signs = stocks (I-fund).
Sample
Spinchart (horizontal view)
|
Day:
|
C, S, I Ebbtracker |
Active ETF
System
Allocation |
Passive
TSP System Allocation* |
| Tuesday
Sample - |
 |
= 100% I-Fund x |
100% G Fund |
| Wednesday
Sample - |
 |
= 100% G-Fund |
100% G Fund |
| Thursday Sample - |
 |
= 100% S-Fund |
50% S, 50% I Fund |
| Friday
Sample - |
|
= 100% S-Fund |
50% S, 50% I Fund |
*
To conform with the TSP transaction limit proposal, I will start using the G-fund for
a safe haven, and a 50/50 split between the S and the I-funds for buy
signals. The new slower TSP signals will keep members from jumping around between equities cutting down on our IFT's when possible.
The original "active" signals will still be given for those trading
outside of the TSP.
x = x-check (see explanation below).
c = Contrarian signal
View
the September
2007 EbbChart (prior charts are down below).
The System uses the ebbtracker's I-fund with simple cross-checking
rules:
a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G or F-fund).
b) Two or more green signs = stocks (S and/or I-fund).
Here
is
a
sample
tally
for
each
pattern
(1-8)
on
the ebbchart
from
January
16
through
Sep.
28,
2007.
The
tally
for
patterns
1,
2, 4
and
7
shows
the
number
of
up
days
and
total
gains
when
using
the
C, S
or
I-fund.
The
tally
for
patterns
3,
5, 6
and
8
shows
the
number
of
down
days
and
total
loss
saved
for
the
C, S
or
I-fund.
The
ebbchart
has
two
sets
of
patterns:
One
set
(1,
2, 4
and
7)
goes
to
stocks
(I-fund)
and
the
other
set
(3,
5, 6
and
8)
goes
to
safe
haven
(G/F).
We will discuss the patterns as they present themselves on
any given day:
Tuesday's pattern (three reds/safe haven --> contrarian
pattern/stocks):
-- Pattern 5: Up days (11/15 or 73%); total gain (+3.08%).
-- High percentage play and we're using the S-fund. Unsuccessful in
its last trip.
Today's pattern (two greens/stocks --> contrarian pattern/safe
haven):
-- Pattern 7: Down days (7/14 or 50%); total loss saved (-1.88%).
-- It didn't work out the last time, but we'll give it another go.
Last Friday's pattern (two greens/stocks):
-- Pattern 2: I-fund up (+0.52%); S-fund down (-0.44%); C-fund down
(-0.29%) for the day.
-- Up days (14/20 to 15/21); total gain (+6.60% to +7.15%). That's more
like it.
Patterns going to stocks (two or more greens):
-- Pattern 1: Up days (24/37 or 65%); total gain (+7.58%).
-- Pattern 2: Up days (15/21 or 71%); total gain (+7.15%).
-- Pattern 4: Up days (17/26 or 65%); total gain (+7.75%).
Patterns going to safe haven (two or more reds):
-- Pattern 3: Down days (12/25 or 48%); total loss saved (-9.84%).
-- Pattern 6: Down days (13/22 or 59%); total loss saved (-3.97%).
Patterns that are weak (not working):
-- Patterns 5, 7 and 8 continue to leave gains on the table or fail to
save us from losses.
-- If these patterns remain weak, contrarian plays* in the future might
be worth a try.
Contrarian plays* (started on July 30):
-- Pattern 5: Up days (3/5); total gain (-0.13%). Safe haven pattern
played as a stock pattern.
-- Pattern 8: Up days (3/3); total gain (+5.00%). Safe haven pattern
played as a stock pattern.
-- Tot. 5 & 8: Up days (6/8); total gain (+4.85%). Being nimble and
taking what the system presents.
-- Patterns 5 & 8 - weakest of the safe haven patterns; pattern 7 -
weakest of the stock patterns.
-- Pattern 7: Down days (0/1); total gain missed (+1.38%). Stock
pattern --> safe haven pattern.
More stats to ponder (contrarian plays are not included in these
stats):
-- I-fund total from Jan.16 thru Sep. 28: Up days (106/179 or 59%);
down days (71/179 or 40%).
-- On days with patterns 1, 2, 4 or 7: Up days (63/99 or 64%); total
gain (+21.86%).
-- On days with patterns 3, 5, 6 or 8: Down days (36/80 or 45%); total
loss saved (-6.67%).
-- The ebbchart increased our probability of catching up days (+.05%)
and down days (+.05%).
-- Our exposure to stocks was also low at only 55% (99/179 in stocks and
80/179 in safe haven).
-- On top of the total gain (+21.86%), we also get to pick up some
G-penny along the way.
Great to know the ebbtracker's generated patterns for the ebbchart are
in tune with the market. If both sets of patterns (safe haven/stock)
produced good gains or the results were reversed, then it's time to go
back to the drawing board.
Note: A day with no gain or loss for a fund won't be counted on the
pattern tally.
- ebb
More on the ebbchart and x-checking:
Prior EbbCharts:
The EbbChart System
can be access on the Premium Services Page.
|
|
| |
|
More on The EbbChart Trading System: |
|
The System uses the ebbtracker's I-fund with simple cross-checking
rules:
a) Two or more stop signs = safe haven (G/F-fund).
b) Two or more green signs = stocks (I-fund).
About the system's author:
I've worked in the Post Office for many years. I owned a lot of
computers way back then (Apple II, C-64, C-128) and wrote lots of
personal programs and games for it, so you can say that I'm a bit of
a computer geek.
With the TSP account I have accumulated, I decided to create a
system that can maximize my returns in the shortest time possible.
I wanted a system that can compare past historical patterns with
today's market patterns, so I can have short-term entry and exit
points. Since I have already amassed tons of the proper data
needed for my database (ebbtracker), I began backtesting in late
2005. I had great results from that and started using it
in 2006. I've only been tracking the I-fund at this point, but on
January 16, 2007, I decided to incorporate the C and S-fund with the
I-fund for tracking. Soon after, I released the ebbchart to show
how the ebbtracker is tracking the C, S and I-fund. The thing I've
noticed about the ebbtracker/ebbchart is the consistency of gains
I've been seeing. By using the ebbchart (Jan. 16 thru Jun. 01), I would have been
exposed to stocks only 55% of the time. Think about that the next
time we're in a bear market!
- ebbnflow
|
|
