TSP Talk -
Thrift Savings Plan

Sentiment	System	G Fund	F Fund	C Fund	S Fund	I Fund	20% Each
2009 Totals:	+3.14%	+2.51%	+6.11%	+21.05%	+26.00%	+27.38%	+16.99%
		L 2040	L 2030	L 2020	L 2010	L INC
		+20.82%	+18.66%	+16.01%	+8.53%	+7.27%


System	2006 Results	2007 Results	2008 Results
**New -	+27.96% *	+21.32% *	-6.14% *
Original -	+27.96% *	+21.32%	-38.32%

* Back-tested result

To take the sentiment survey each week via e-mail click here.

In a bull market, when the Ratio is:
2.00 and higher, it tends to be bearish
1.25 or less, it tends to be bullish.

In a bear market, when the Ratio is:
0.99 and higher, it tends to be bearish
0.49 or less, it tends to be bullish.

How to use this system:

The surveys are posted on the site, and emailed out, each Thursday, and the final ratio is posted here each Friday morning.

If the ratio is 1.25 or less, a buy signal is given. Stay in the buy allocation, using the allocation in either method #1 or #2 below, until a sell signal is given (ratio of 2.00 or higher). Stay in the sell allocation (100% G fund) until another buy signal is given.

** The sentiment system seemed to have lost its effectiveness with the bear market playing out. It needed an adjusted. At the risk of data-mining, I have played with some variations - adjusting the buy/sell signals based on the position of the 50-day moving average

The original rules were:

When the Bulls to Bears Ratio is:

2.00 or higher, it is overly bullish, which is bearish for the market and we have a sell signal.

Less than 1.25, it is overly bearish, which is bullish for the market and we have a buy signal.

The change is going to be this:

If the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the S&P 500 is above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), we will use the above original ratios.

If the 50-day EMA of the S&P 500 is below the 200-day EMA, we will use these new ratios:

1.00 or higher, it is overly bullish, which is bearish for the market and we have a sell signal.

Less than 0.50, it is overly bearish, which is bullish for the market and we have a buy signal.

The theory being that if the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA, we will consider ourselves in a bull market. If the 50 is below the 200, we'll consider it a bear market.

The other change is that instead of always using the S-fund for a buy signal, we will use the C-fund when on a buy signal and the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 is below the 200-day moving average.

In 2008, the ratio has never reached 2.00 so it has been on a buy signal, and 100% S-fund all year. Obviously this is unacceptable. Through Friday 11/14/08, that was a loss of 42.85%, the same as the S-fund. The new system would have given us a loss of "just" 6.14%.

I will start 2009 with the new adjustment and we'll see how it goes.

Thanks,
TSP Talk

		*Starting New System Parameters in January '09
			Effective 8/13/09: Bull Market Rules Apply
Week							S&P 500	S&P 500	Buy/		Bull/
From:		To:	Bulls	Bears	Ratio		gain/loss	Close	Sell	Fund	Bear
11/09/09	-	11/13/09	54%	34%	1.59	-1			Buy	S	Bull
11/02/09	-	11/06/09	37%	49%	0.76	-1			Buy	S	Bull
10/26/09	-	10/30/09	46%	41%	1.12	-1	-4.02%	1036.19	Buy	S	Bull
10/19/09	-	10/23/09	54%	32%	1.69	-1	-0.74%	1079.60	Buy	S	Bull
10/12/09	-	10/16/09	55%	34%	1.62	-1	1.51%	1087.68	Buy	S	Bull
10/05/09	-	10/09/09	37%	50%	0.74	-1	4.51%	1071.49	Buy	S	Bull
09/28/09	-	10/02/09	39%	49%	0.80	-1	-1.84%	1025.21	Buy	S	Bull
09/21/09	-	09/25/09	55%	35%	1.57	-1	-2.24%	1044.38	Buy	S	Bull
09/14/09	-	09/18/09	51%	34%	1.50	-1	2.45%	1068.30	Buy	S	Bull
09/08/09	-	09/11/09	40%	45%	0.89	-1	2.59%	1042.73	Buy	S	Bull
08/31/09	-	09/04/09	44%	41%	1.07	-1	-1.22%	1016.4	Buy	S	Bull
08/24/09	-	08/28/09	50%	37%	1.35	-1	0.27%	1028.93	Sell	G	Bull
08/17/09	-	08/21/09	51%	35%	1.46	-1	2.20%	1026.13	Sell	G	Bull
08/10/09	-	08/14/09	47%	42%	1.12	-1	-0.63%	1004.09	Sell	G	Bear
08/03/09	-	08/07/09	48%	40%	1.20	-1	2.33%	1010.48	Sell	G	Bear
07/27/09	-	07/31/09	51%	37%	1.38	-1	0.84%	987.48	Sell	G	Bear
07/20/09	-	07/24/09	46%	44%	1.05	-1	4.13%	979.26	Sell	G	Bear
07/13/09	-	07/17/09	33%	53%	0.62	-1	6.97%	940.38	Sell	G	Bear
07/06/09	-	07/10/09	40%	43%	0.93	-1	-1.93%	879.13	Sell	G	Bear
06/29/09	-	07/02/09	36%	54%	0.67	-1	-2.45%	896.42	Sell	G	Bear
06/22/09	-	06/26/09	38%	48%	0.79	-1	-0.25%	918.9	Sell	G	Bear
06/15/09	-	06/19/09	49%	38%	1.29	-1	-2.64%	921.23	Sell	G	Bear
06/08/09	-	06/12/09	52%	34%	1.53	-1	0.65%	946.21	Sell	G	Bear
06/01/09	-	06/05/09	44%	41%	1.07	-1	2.28%	940.09	Sell	G	Bear
05/26/09	-	05/29/09	37%	53%	0.70	-1	3.62%	919.14	Sell	G	Bear
05/18/09	-	05/22/09	34%	56%	0.61	-1	0.47%	887.00	Sell	G	Bear
05/11/09	-	05/15/09	47%	42%	1.12	-1	-4.99%	882.88	Sell	G	Bear
05/04/09	-	05/08/09	43%	45%	0.96	-1	5.89%	929.23	Sell	G	Bear
04/27/09	-	05/01/09	34%	51%	0.67	-1	1.30%	877.52	Sell	G	Bear
04/20/09	-	04/24/09	38%	45%	0.84	-1	-0.39%	866.23	Sell	G	Bear
04/13/09	-	04/17/09	35%	47%	0.74	-1	1.52%	869.60	Sell	G	Bear
04/06/09	-	04/10/09	49%	35%	1.40	-1	1.67%	856.56	Sell	G	Bear
03/30/09	-	04/03/09	47%	37%	1.27	-1	3.26%	842.50	Sell	G	Bear
03/23/09	-	03/27/09	34%	52%	0.65	-1	6.17%	815.94	Buy	C	Bear
03/16/09	-	03/20/09	36%	48%	0.75	-1	2.37%	768.54	Buy	C	Bear
03/09/09	-	03/13/09	26%	64%	0.41	-1	9.86%	750.74	Buy	C	Bear
03/02/09	-	03/06/09	34%	55%	0.62	-1	-7.03%	683.38	Buy	C	Bear
02/23/09	-	02/27/09	27%	60%	0.45	-1	-4.54%	735.09	Buy	C	Bear
02/17/09	-	02/20/09	34%	51%	0.67	-1	-6.87%	770.05	Buy	C	Bear
02/09/09	-	02/13/09	34%	51%	0.67	-1	-4.81%	826.84	Buy	C	Bear
02/02/09	-	02/06/09	26%	58%	0.45	-1	5.17%	868.60	Buy	C	Bear
01/26/09	-	01/30/09	37%	50%	0.74	-1	-0.73%	825.88	Sell	G	Bear
01/20/09	-	01/23/09	35%	53%	0.66	-1	-2.14%	831.95	Sell	G	Bear
01/12/09	-	01/16/09	32%	52%	0.62	-1	-4.52%	850.12	Sell	G	Bear
01/05/09	-	01/09/09	45%	42%	1.07	-1	-4.45%	890.35	Sell	G	Bear
01/02/09	-	01/02/09	34%	50%	0.68	-1	3.16%	931.80	Sell	G*	Bear
12/29/08	-	12/31/08	34%	50%	0.68	-1	3.49%	903.25	B	S
12/22/08	-	12/26/08	47%	37%	1.27	-1	-1.70%	872.80	B	S
12/15/08	-	12/19/08	29%	54%	0.54	-1	0.93%	887.88	B	S
12/08/08	-	12/12/08	29%	54%	0.54	-1	0.42%	879.73	B	S
12/01/08	-	12/05/08	38%	46%	0.83	-1	-2.25%	876.07	B	S
11/24/08	-	11/28/08	29%	61%	0.48	-1	12.03%	896.24	B	S
11/17/08	-	11/21/08	31%	58%	0.53	-1	-8.39%	800.03	B	S
11/10/08	-	11/14/08	28%	60%	0.47	-1	-6.20%	873.29	B	S
11/03/08	-	11/07/08	48%	36%	1.33	-1	-3.90%	930.99	B	S
10/27/08	-	10/31/08	27%	58%	0.47	-1	10.49%	968.75	B	S
10/20/08	-	10/24/08	30%	56%	0.54	-1	-6.78%	876.77	B	S
10/13/08	-	10/17/08	35%	55%	0.64	-1	4.60%	940.55	B	S
10/06/08	-	10/10/08	38%	47%	0.81	-1	-18.20%	899.22	B	S
09/29/08	-	10/03/08	41%	44%	0.93	-1	-9.40%	1099.23	B	S
09/22/08	-	09/26/08	36%	55%	0.65	-1	-3.33%	1213.27	B	S
09/15/08	-	09/19/08	38%	55%	0.69	-1	0.27%	1255.08	B	S
09/08/08	-	09/12/08	31%	55%	0.56	-1	0.76%	1251.70	B	S
09/02/08	-	09/05/08	43%	43%	1.00	-1	-3.16%	1242.31	B	S
08/25/08	-	08/29/08	33%	53%	0.62	-1	-0.73%	1282.83	B	S
08/18/08	-	08/22/08	33%	49%	0.67	-1	-0.46%	1292.20	B	S
08/11/08	-	08/15/08	38%	43%	0.88	-1	0.15%	1298.20	B	S
08/04/08	-	08/08/08	40%	44%	0.91	-1	2.86%	1296.32	B	S
07/28/08	-	08/01/08	39%	49%	0.80	-1	0.20%	1260.31	B	S
07/21/08	-	07/25/08	46%	41%	1.12	-1	-0.23%	1257.76	B	S
07/14/08	-	07/18/08	36%	55%	0.65	-1	1.71%	1260.68	B	S
07/07/08	-	07/11/08	29%	61%	0.48	-1	-1.85%	1239.49	B	S
06/30/08	-	07/03/08	28%	61%	0.46	-1	-1.21%	1262.90	B	S
06/23/08	-	06/27/08	32%	56%	0.57	-1	-3.00%	1278.38	B	S
06/16/08	-	06/20/08	29%	62%	0.47	-1	-3.10%	1317.93	B	S
06/09/08	-	06/13/08	47%	41%	1.15	-1	-0.05%	1360.03	B	S
06/02/08	-	06/06/08	44%	40%	1.10	-1	-2.83%	1360.68	B	S
05/27/08	-	05/30/08	31%	57%	0.54	-1	1.78%	1400.38	B	S
05/19/08	-	05/23/08	44%	38%	1.16	-1	-3.47%	1375.93	B	S
05/12/08	-	05/16/08	38%	51%	0.75	-1	2.67%	1425.35	B	S
05/05/08	-	05/09/08	44%	39%	1.13	-1	-1.81%	1388.28	B	S
04/28/08	-	05/02/08	44%	44%	1.00	-1	1.15%	1413.90	B	S
04/21/08	-	04/25/08	49%	39%	1.26	-1	0.54%	1397.84	B	S
04/14/08	-	04/18/08	38%	48%	0.79	-1	4.31%	1390.33	B	S
04/07/08	-	04/11/08	44%	43%	1.02	-1	-2.74%	1332.83	B	S
03/31/08	-	04/04/08	43%	46%	0.93	-1	4.20%	1370.40	B	S
03/24/08	-	03/28/08	35%	54%	0.65	-1	-1.07%	1315.22	B	S
03/17/08	-	03/21/08	30%	58%	0.52	-1	3.21%	1329.51	B	S
03/10/08	-	03/14/08	26%	61%	0.43	-1	-0.40%	1288.14	B	S
03/03/08	-	03/07/08	34%	53%	0.64	-1	-2.80%	1293.37	B	S
02/25/08	-	02/29/08	28%	53%	0.53	-1	-1.66%	1330.63	B	S
02/18/08	-	02/22/08	43%	44%	0.98	-1	0.23%	1353.11	B	S
02/11/08	-	02/15/08	31%	56%	0.55	-1	1.40%	1349.99	B	S
02/04/08	-	02/08/08	40%	48%	0.83	-1	-4.60%	1331.29	B	S
01/28/08	-	02/01/08	43%	41%	1.05	-1	4.87%	1395.42	B	S
01/21/08	-	01/25/08	26%	65%	0.40	-1	0.41%	1330.61	B	S
01/14/08	-	01/18/08	34%	52%	0.65	-1	-5.41%	1325.19	B	S
01/07/08	-	01/11/08	35%	53%	0.66	-1	-0.75%	1401.02	B	S
12/31/07	-	01/04/08	43%	43%	1.00	-1	-4.52%	1411.63	B	S

S&P 500 (C fund)

1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y

Dow Completion (S fund)

1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y

EFA (I fund)

1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y

Bonds (F fund)

1d 5d 3m 6m 1y 2y

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