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  • Sentiment Survey Results

    Sentiment Survey System Return as of
    - 05/16/08
    Sentiment System G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund 20% Each
    2008 Totals: (0.76%) 1.30% 2.18% (2.17%) (0.76%) (0.40%) 0.03%
      L 2040 L 2030 L 2020 L 2010 L INC  
      (0.60%) (0.34%) 0.00% 0.52% 1.04%  
         
    2006 Results 2007 Results  
    +27.96% * +21.32%  
    * 2006 backtested

    To take the sentiment survey each week via e-mail click here.

    When the Ratio is:
     Greater than 2.00 = it is overly bullish, which is bearish for the market.
     Less than 1.00    = it is overly bearish, which is bullish for the market.

    For our survey we noticed a Ratio of:
    2.00 and higher tends to be bearish
    1.25 or less tends to be bullish.

    How to use this system:
    If the ratio is 1.25 or less, a buy signal is given.  Stay in the buy allocation, using the allocation in either method #1 or #2 below, until a sell signal is given (ratio of 2.00 or higher).  Stay in the sell allocation (100% G fund) until another buy signal is given.

    Trading results using the survey as a contrarian indicator.  Two allocations:
    Method > 1.99 = Sell < 1.26 = Buy

    2006 Result

    2007 Result
    S/G 100% G 100% S +27.96%* +21.32%
    * Backtested
    Week              S&P 500  S&P 500   Buy/  
    From:   To: Bulls  Bears Ratio   gain/loss Close Votes Sell Fund
    05/19/08 - 05/23/08 44% 38% 1.16 -1     296 B S
    05/12/08 - 05/16/08 38% 51% 0.75 -1     288 B S
    05/05/08 - 05/09/08 44% 39% 1.13 -1 -1.81% 1388.28 278 B S
    04/28/08 - 05/02/08 44% 44% 1.00 -1 1.15% 1413.90 282 B S
    04/21/08 - 04/25/08 49% 39% 1.26 -1 0.54% 1397.84 348 B S
    04/14/08 - 04/18/08 38% 48% 0.79 -1 4.31% 1390.33 301 B S
    04/07/08 - 04/11/08 44% 43% 1.02 -1 -2.74% 1332.83 305 B S
    03/31/08 - 04/04/08 43% 46% 0.93 -1 4.20% 1370.40 336 B S
    03/24/08 - 03/28/08 35% 54% 0.65 -1 -1.07% 1315.22 332 B S
    03/17/08 - 03/21/08 30% 58% 0.52 -1 3.21% 1329.51 276 B S
    03/10/08 - 03/14/08 26% 61% 0.43 -1 -0.40% 1288.14 309 B S
    03/03/08 - 03/07/08 34% 53% 0.64 -1 -2.80% 1293.37 320 B S
    02/25/08 - 02/29/08 28% 53% 0.53 -1 -1.66% 1330.63 301 B S
    02/18/08 - 02/22/08 43% 44% 0.98 -1 0.23% 1353.11 319 B S
    02/11/08 - 02/15/08 31% 56% 0.55 -1 1.40% 1349.99 207 B S
    02/04/08 - 02/08/08 40% 48% 0.83 -1 -4.60% 1331.29 383 B S
    01/28/08 - 02/01/08 43% 41% 1.05 -1 4.87% 1395.42 393 B S
    01/21/08 - 01/25/08 26% 65% 0.40 -1 0.41% 1330.61 395 B S
    01/14/08 - 01/18/08 34% 52% 0.65 -1 -5.41% 1325.19 360 B S
    01/07/08 - 01/11/08 35% 53% 0.66 -1 -0.75% 1401.02 417 B S
    12/31/07 - 01/04/08 43% 43% 1.00 -1 -4.52% 1411.63 332 B S
    12/24/07 - 12/28/07 41% 43% 0.95 -1 -0.40% 1478.49 393 B S
    12/17/07 - 12/21/07 43% 42% 1.02 -1 1.12% 1484.46 272 B S
    12/10/07 - 12/14/07 69% 17% 4.06 -1 -2.44% 1467.95 387 S G