Market Comments

June 4, 2007

 


Fund share prices as of: 6/01/07
Fund - G Fund F Fund C Fund S Fund I Fund
11.95 11.26 17.13 21.01 24.77
$  Change - +0.01 -0.03 +0.06 +0.13 +0.16
% Change - +0.08% -0.27% +0.35% +0.62% +0.65%
  L2040 L2030 L2020 L2010 L Income
18.51 17.57 16.69 15.29 13.21
$  Change - +0.07 +0.06 +0.05 +0.03 +0.01
% Change - +0.38% +0.34% +0.30% +0.20% +0.08%



Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)                             Printer friendly

Bullets

There is a lot to talk about today so I'll try to be succinct and throw it at you like this:

-
The strong jobs report helped stocks rally on Friday.  The 157,000 new jobs created in May were 22,000 more than expected.  As we talked about on Friday, that qualifies as an upward surprise.  While the S&P 500 was not quite up the 0.50% we mentioned, the broader market NYSE was, meaning we could see those gains given back in the next couple of days.

- China's Shanghai Composite Index was down another 8% last night.  That's over 15% in four days now.  We've been expecting this, but will it affect the U.S. markets?

- The
TSP Talk Sentiment Survey System moves to a sell signal for this week after being on a buy signal the past 3 weeks.

- The AAII Sentiment Survey is still overly bearish (which is bullish for stocks.)


                               Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com



- Bond yields continue to move higher as bond prices and the F fund moved down sharply on Friday, breaking through support.  We could see a bounce here but technically, things are falling apart for the AGG


                               Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com
 


- If you are a subscriber to the TSP Timing Newsletter, RevShark is making an allocation change today.

- If you are a member of our message board, you have probably heard of the member called "ebbnflow".  He has done some great work actively timing the TSP funds with his personal system called the EbbChart.  I have been quite impressed wanted to give him more exposure than what the board was currently providing, so we started a new page appropriately named EbbChart.  Check it out!  (www.tsptalk.com/ebbchart.html)  It is designed to be a very account system so you really have to stay on top of it if you plan to follow the system.  I haven't decided yet if I will add it to the list of email alerts because we could see multiple signals each week and you may be better off just checking in every day.  But, we'll see.

- Trader Fred's TSP Trader System remains on a buy signal, but 2 of the 4 submodels that were on a buy signal, moved to a sell signal after Friday's trading.  Trader Fred's current commentary can be found on the system page

He's added an easy to read grid of all the submodels with their signals and dates of entry.  This should help those who miss buy signals. 

All of the
TSP Trader System back testing is based on entering and exiting the market when the system says so.  Jumping into the market in the middle of a buy signal is not necessarily recommended.  But now you can go ahead and buy when one of the submodels gives a buy signal within an existing system buy signal, but you'll want to exit when that same submodel exits the market, regardless if the system remains on a buy signal. 

A little explanation:  If any one of the 17 submodels is on a buy signal, then the system is on a buy signal and would be in the market.  When all 17 submodels are on a sell signal, the system is out of the market.  So, if the system is on a sell, signal, and submodel A gives a buy signal on a Monday, but you don't see it until Thursday, you should not enter the market.  If submodel B then gives a buy signal on Friday, you can enter the market but you should watch submodel B for a sell signal, and ignore submodel A.  The new table will help you track it.

That's all for today.  I am currently 100% F fund.  See you tomorrow!



Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers. 

Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policyBy signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **.

Are you bullish or bearish? 
Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey.

Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us.