Bullets
There is a lot to talk about today so I'll try to be
succinct and throw it at you like this:
-
The strong jobs report helped stocks rally on
Friday. The 157,000 new jobs created in May were
22,000 more than expected. As we talked about on
Friday, that qualifies as an upward surprise.
While the S&P 500 was not quite up the 0.50% we
mentioned, the broader market NYSE was, meaning we
could see those gains given back in the next couple
of days.
- China's Shanghai Composite Index was down another
8% last night. That's over 15% in four days
now. We've been expecting this, but will it
affect the U.S. markets?
- The
TSP
Talk Sentiment Survey System
moves to a sell signal for this week after being on
a buy signal the past 3 weeks.
- The AAII Sentiment Survey is still overly bearish
(which is bullish for stocks.)

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com
- Bond yields continue to move higher as bond prices
and the F fund moved down sharply on Friday,
breaking through support. We could see a
bounce here but technically, things are falling
apart for the
AGG.

Chart provided courtesy of
www.decisionpoint.com
- If you are a subscriber to the
TSP Timing Newsletter, RevShark is making an
allocation change today.
- If you
are a member of our
message board,
you have probably heard of the member called "ebbnflow".
He has done some great work actively timing the TSP
funds with his personal system called the EbbChart.
I have been quite impressed wanted to give him more
exposure than what the board was currently
providing, so we started a new page appropriately
named
EbbChart. Check it out! (www.tsptalk.com/ebbchart.html)
It is designed to be a very account system so you
really have to stay on top of it if you plan to
follow the system. I haven't decided yet if I
will add it to the list of email alerts because we
could see multiple signals each week and you may be
better off just checking in every day. But,
we'll see.
- Trader
Fred's
TSP
Trader System
remains on a buy signal, but 2 of the 4 submodels
that were on a buy signal, moved to a sell signal
after Friday's trading.
Trader Fred's current commentary can be found on the
system
page.
He's added an easy to read grid of all the submodels
with their signals and dates of entry. This
should help those who miss buy signals.
All of the
TSP
Trader System
back testing is based on entering and exiting the
market when the system says so. Jumping into
the market in the middle of a buy signal is not
necessarily recommended. But now you can go
ahead and buy when one of the submodels gives a buy
signal within an existing system buy signal, but
you'll want to exit when that same submodel exits
the market, regardless if the system remains on a
buy signal.
A little explanation: If any one of the 17
submodels is on a buy signal, then the system is on
a buy signal and would be in the market. When
all 17 submodels are on a sell signal, the system is
out of the market. So, if the system is on a
sell, signal, and submodel A gives a buy signal on a
Monday, but you don't see it until Thursday, you
should not enter the market. If submodel B
then gives a buy signal on Friday, you can enter the
market but you should watch submodel B for a sell
signal, and ignore submodel A. The new table
will help you track it.
That's all for today. I am currently 100% F fund. See you
tomorrow!
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