Thread: The Hindenburg Omen

I'm KEEPING MYSELF FAR AWAY from stocks these days.

That Hindenberg seems to be accurate this time. We need a while to stop the bleeding, and I don't know if we are anywhere near that. I'm thinking another couple of months before we hit bottom.

Originally Posted by Bullitt

Another NYSE Hindenburg on April 12 for those still keeping score.

When was the last the last "reset" (when it went to 0)? Is the time span between new HO's getting shorter (are we getting them more rapidly)? Interested in change over time. Increasing, decreasing? Do you have anything like "here are the number of days between peak HO and crash"? I realize this type of data is esoteric and probably doesn't support hard facts like I am hoping for. Whatever clarity you can provide is appreciated. Thanks.

Originally Posted by retread

When was the last the last "reset" (when it went to 0)? Is the time span between new HO's getting shorter (are we getting them more rapidly)? Interested in change over time. Increasing, decreasing? Do you have anything like "here are the number of days between peak HO and crash"? I realize this type of data is esoteric and probably doesn't support hard facts like I am hoping for. Whatever clarity you can provide is appreciated. Thanks.

Went back on this thread and found this link which suggests numbers around 13 are concerning.

https://thefelderreport.com/2021/11/...n-just-lit-up/

It's like everything else. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Allegedly every crash has been preceded by a HO warning.

Basically, it's looking for deterioration of market breadth. One problem in the past 10 years or so is that the whole entire market has been lifted by FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, TSLA. It only takes a few of those stocks to be up during the day to create a positive market leading to more HO signs than in years past.

See the historical chart here https://sentimentrader.com/blog/ulti...indenburg-omen

Some have their own "enhanced" way of computing the number. Here is the original.

Here is the formula for triggering a Hindenburg Omen, as written by Jim Miekka himself:

- First, the number of issues in a specific exchange hitting 52-week highs (left lane of traffic) and lows (right lane of traffic) must both exceed 2.8 percent of the number of issues in said exchange. (Many articles report a requirement of 2.2 percent, which is incorrect.)

- Second, the benchmark index for the exchange must be above the value it had 50 trading days, or 10 weeks, ago. (Again, many sources get this incorrect, referencing an exchange must be above its 50-day moving average. This is not accurate.)

- Once the two aforementioned events have occurred, the signal is valid for 30 trading days. During the 30 days, the signal is activated whenever the McClellan Oscillator (MCO) is negative, but deactivated whenever the MCO is positive. (This is an extremely important distinction that many publications inexplicably omit.)

https://seekingalpha.com/article/407...ust-scary-name

Word is there was a Hindenburg Omen on Monday.

Got a HO signal last week.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Got a HO signal last week.

Uh-oh...saying the "H" word out loud?

If inflation shoots up and the Fed announces new rate HIKES, I could see a flaming Hindenburg in the not too distant future.

But other than that, it would probably take a "Black Swan" event, maybe Xi invading Taiwan...or Putin using a Tactical Nuke on Ukraine, and the US fulfilling its retaliatory promise to Putin, to use conventional missiles to destroy all Russian military basses in Syria and Occupied Ukraine, to create a huge 20%+ plunge.

Originally Posted by FireWeatherMet

Uh-oh...saying the "H" word out loud?

If inflation shoots up and the Fed announces new rate HIKES, I could see a flaming Hindenburg in the not too distant future.

But other than that, it would probably take a "Black Swan" event, maybe Xi invading Taiwan...or Putin using a Tactical Nuke on Ukraine, and the US fulfilling its retaliatory promise to Putin, to use conventional missiles to destroy all Russian military basses in Syria and Occupied Ukraine, to create a huge 20%+ plunge.

Well that would send me back to the end of 2022.