Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Good morning

Since May is the supposed beginning of the "Worst 6 months of the year", I thought I'd take a look at the outer extremes of monthly gains & losses.

The best month across 63 years was October 1974 gaining 16.30%
The worst month across 63 years was October 1987 losing -21.76%

This chart takes the top & bottom 10% for each month across the previous 63 years (or 756 months). In terms of extreme gains & losses, October is the clear winner/loser here.

T6B6.png

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Breaking this down by year & monthly count, we can see the pockets of strength and weakness as they aligned with the bull/bear movements in the stock market.

T6B6-1.png

Good morning


Based on historical data, it looks like today will have a positive close. If for some reason it doesn’t close up, then (for myself) I’d take that as a warning sign.


From last week’s Thursday, the last 27 times Thursday closed down, the next trading day had a 56% winning ratio.

20230505-+1.png

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From last week, across the past 55 trading sessions, when the S&P 500 gaps up at the open, the close has a 64% winning ratio. Of the last 11 times Friday gapped up, it closed up 73% of the time.

20230505-GAP.png

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On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed down 4 consecutive days. From the previous 21 years, a 5 consecutive day close down has happened 1.3% of the time.

20230505-ROW.png

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From the previous 21-years, when the S&P 500 gaped up at the open .50% or greater, then the index closed up 80-86% of the time.

20230505-21-GAP.png

Good call for today.

Thanks, I'm fortunate enough that the pre-markets open for me at 10am. Sometimes watching the pre-action gives a good feel for how the markets will behave in the open. On a good day, I've already bought in the pre, and sold in the 1st hour of trading, and I'm done for the day.

The last 2 weeks have had long tails, so I feel like buyers are still in control. I'll be curious to see what happens next week.

Originally Posted by JTH

Thanks, I'm fortunate enough that the pre-markets open for me at 10am. Sometimes watching the pre-action gives a good feel for how the markets will behave in the open. On a good day, I've already bought in the pre, and sold in the 1st hour of trading, and I'm done for the day.

The last 2 weeks have had long tails, so I feel like buyers are still in control. I'll be curious to see what happens next week.

You and me both.

Good morning


Perhaps a slight word of caution, Crypto BTC/ETH pulled back this weekend, when compared with the S&P 500, they have a much lower high (compared with the previous high). It might mean nothing, but it could also mean that money flows into speculative assets is drying up.


Looking at the 60/90 Day Linear Regression Channels, we are fairly priced just above the 4120 Mid-value lines. Both channels are in agreement with their spacing & angles, so it looks healthy. We could be setting up for a 50-SMA 4040 to 500-SMA 4200 trading range, which is roughly a 4% price swing. When I see something like this, I think of the compression of prices, the more time we compress, the more exciting it will be when we break into the next level.

20230505-60_90.png


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On the Day of Week stats, it’s much the same picture as it was the previous 3 weeks. Difference being, Mon/Thur have gotten better, while Tue/Wed have gotten worse, with Fri still sitting at average. The last 2 Tuesdays & 5 Wednesdays have closed down, while the last 3 Fridays have closed up.

20230505-DoW.png

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For the AutoTracker’s Top-600, little has changed. It was a flat week, losing -.27%. For the Top-50, there’s been a 17% increase in the G/F Fund allocations, with this week’s Top-50 losing -.05%

20230505-AT.png


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On the S&P 500’s weighted Top-10, the short-term 4-day pullback didn’t dig us too deeply under the primary SMAs, but it did pull the Top-50 down to reasonable levels.

20230505-T10.png

have a greet week!

Good morning

With the previous 2 weeks, sellers tried to take the markets down, but buyers stepped in.
The pin bar candlestick pattern is a tailed bar that shows a sharp reversal in price.

20230411-Tail.png

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Meanwhile, a 30-minute PnF Chart shows the transition from resistance to support, we've essentially created a floor at 4045.

20230411-PnF.png

Good morning (Post 1 of 2)

Using Fuzzy Math, by weight, the S&P 500's Top-10 have contributed 8.69% YTD. Since the index is up 7.41% YTD, this should mean that without the Top-10 the index would be down -1.28% YTD.

Another way to look at it, 2.35% of the S&P 500's 7.41% YTD performance comes from AAPL. Although AAPL has a 7.16% index weight, it has contributed 31% of the S&P 500's YTD gain.

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The SPDR Sector ETF XLK carries an index weight of 26%, a gain of 21.30% YTD, and is trading above the 10/50/100/200 SMAs.

20230512-SPDR.png
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With the exception of TSLA, the weighted Top-10 stocks are performing well, with the Top 3 trading above all the major SMAs. Meanwhile the weighted Top-50 look flat-to-average.

20230512-T-50.png

Post 2 of 2

Over the past 5 sessions we've been in a tight 1.35% range, and volume has been light (under the 50-SMA-VOL).
SPX_DAILY
20230512-CHRT.png

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Statistically speaking, it's much the same as I've reported over the previous 3 weeks, Mon/Thur good, Tue/Wed bad, Fri meh. The last 7 of 11 days down, last 3 Tue down, last 2 Thur down.
20230512-DoW.png

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The AT's Top-600 lost -.24% last week, while the Top-50 lost -.41%
20230512-AT.png

For the first time since the Aug high, the NASDAQ 100 is testing the 500-SMA.

20230516.png

Good afternoon

This is a market carpet, of the S&P 500's 503 stocks sorted by weight. Green is above and red is below the various timeframes. My weighted score for the Top-10 is 88%, and the Bottom-453 is -30%

The further you go down the chart (in weight) the worse the performance, hence the sea of red...

WEIGHT.png