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Thread: JTH's Account Talk

  1. #9193

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning (post 3 of 3)

    Here’s a 3-day chart with Daily SMAs. I’ll be interested to see if we re-test the 4200 swing high from 2-Feb, where there was also a rejection at the 500 SMA. At this time, the 500 SMA intersects with the OCT-DEC trendline (an area of both support and now resistance). If we can push through this level, then the next test could be the Aug high, which would be a significant achievement.

    SPX 3-DAY
    20230428-3-Day.png

    ___

    For the AutoTracker’s Top-600 it was a flat week, and collectively we closed out the month with a -.06% loss. As for the Top-50, there’s been a recent invasion of L-Funders, but the I-Fund retains its majority, and the Top-50 closed out the month up 1.48%

    20230428-AT.png

    ___
    Across the Day of Week stats, it’s much the same picture that it was the previous 2 weeks. Mon/Thur good, Tue/Wed bad, & Fri is average. The last 6 Mondays have closed up, and the last 4 Wednesdays have closed down.

    20230428-DoW.png

    ___
    Normally I’ll do the S&P 500’s weighted Top-50 components which comprises 54% of the Index. Changing things up, this week it’s the Weighted Top-10, making up 28% of the index. Only Tesla is sucking wind, while the others are doing quite well.

    20230428-T-10.png

    ___
    Looking at the SPDR Sector ETFs, we can see Tech’s XLK (25.61% of the S&P 500), is firing on all cylinders both in performance across all timeframes, and momentum across all moving averages. Meanwhile it’s Healthcare & Financials (a combined 27.7% of the index) which has been tamping us down, but they did have a good month.

    20230428-SPDR.png

    All the best for May
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  3. #9194

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good morning

    Since May is the supposed beginning of the "Worst 6 months of the year", I thought I'd take a look at the outer extremes of monthly gains & losses.

    The best month across 63 years was October 1974 gaining 16.30%
    The worst month across 63 years was October 1987 losing -21.76%

    This chart takes the top & bottom 10% for each month across the previous 63 years (or 756 months). In terms of extreme gains & losses, October is the clear winner/loser here.

    T6B6.png

    ___
    Breaking this down by year & monthly count, we can see the pockets of strength and weakness as they aligned with the bull/bear movements in the stock market.

    T6B6-1.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  5. #9195

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    Default Re: MONTHS

    Good morning


    Based on historical data, it looks like today will have a positive close. If for some reason it doesn’t close up, then (for myself) I’d take that as a warning sign.


    From last week’s Thursday, the last 27 times Thursday closed down, the next trading day had a 56% winning ratio.

    20230505-+1.png

    ___
    From last week, across the past 55 trading sessions, when the S&P 500 gaps up at the open, the close has a 64% winning ratio. Of the last 11 times Friday gapped up, it closed up 73% of the time.

    20230505-GAP.png

    ___
    On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed down 4 consecutive days. From the previous 21 years, a 5 consecutive day close down has happened 1.3% of the time.

    20230505-ROW.png

    ___
    From the previous 21-years, when the S&P 500 gaped up at the open .50% or greater, then the index closed up 80-86% of the time.

    20230505-21-GAP.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  7. #9196

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good call for today.
    May the force be with us.

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  9. #9197

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Thanks, I'm fortunate enough that the pre-markets open for me at 10am. Sometimes watching the pre-action gives a good feel for how the markets will behave in the open. On a good day, I've already bought in the pre, and sold in the 1st hour of trading, and I'm done for the day.

    The last 2 weeks have had long tails, so I feel like buyers are still in control. I'll be curious to see what happens next week.
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  11. #9198

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Thanks, I'm fortunate enough that the pre-markets open for me at 10am. Sometimes watching the pre-action gives a good feel for how the markets will behave in the open. On a good day, I've already bought in the pre, and sold in the 1st hour of trading, and I'm done for the day.

    The last 2 weeks have had long tails, so I feel like buyers are still in control. I'll be curious to see what happens next week.
    You and me both.
    May the force be with us.


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  13. #9199

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    Default Re: MONTHS

    Good morning


    Perhaps a slight word of caution, Crypto BTC/ETH pulled back this weekend, when compared with the S&P 500, they have a much lower high (compared with the previous high). It might mean nothing, but it could also mean that money flows into speculative assets is drying up.


    Looking at the 60/90 Day Linear Regression Channels, we are fairly priced just above the 4120 Mid-value lines. Both channels are in agreement with their spacing & angles, so it looks healthy. We could be setting up for a 50-SMA 4040 to 500-SMA 4200 trading range, which is roughly a 4% price swing. When I see something like this, I think of the compression of prices, the more time we compress, the more exciting it will be when we break into the next level.

    20230505-60_90.png



    __

    On the Day of Week stats, it’s much the same picture as it was the previous 3 weeks. Difference being, Mon/Thur have gotten better, while Tue/Wed have gotten worse, with Fri still sitting at average. The last 2 Tuesdays & 5 Wednesdays have closed down, while the last 3 Fridays have closed up.

    20230505-DoW.png

    ___



    For the AutoTracker’s Top-600, little has changed. It was a flat week, losing -.27%. For the Top-50, there’s been a 17% increase in the G/F Fund allocations, with this week’s Top-50 losing -.05%

    20230505-AT.png



    ___

    On the S&P 500’s weighted Top-10, the short-term 4-day pullback didn’t dig us too deeply under the primary SMAs, but it did pull the Top-50 down to reasonable levels.

    20230505-T10.png

    have a greet week!
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  15. #9200

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    Default Re: MONTHS

    Good morning

    With the previous 2 weeks, sellers tried to take the markets down, but buyers stepped in.
    The pin bar candlestick pattern is a tailed bar that shows a sharp reversal in price.

    20230411-Tail.png

    ___
    Meanwhile, a 30-minute PnF Chart shows the transition from resistance to support, we've essentially created a floor at 4045.

    20230411-PnF.png


    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  17. #9201

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    Default Re: MONTHS

    Good morning (Post 1 of 2)

    Using Fuzzy Math, by weight, the S&P 500's Top-10 have contributed 8.69% YTD. Since the index is up 7.41% YTD, this should mean that without the Top-10 the index would be down -1.28% YTD.

    Another way to look at it, 2.35% of the S&P 500's 7.41% YTD performance comes from AAPL. Although AAPL has a 7.16% index weight, it has contributed 31% of the S&P 500's YTD gain.

    ___
    The SPDR Sector ETF XLK carries an index weight of 26%, a gain of 21.30% YTD, and is trading above the 10/50/100/200 SMAs.

    20230512-SPDR.png
    ___
    With the exception of TSLA, the weighted Top-10 stocks are performing well, with the Top 3 trading above all the major SMAs. Meanwhile the weighted Top-50 look flat-to-average.

    20230512-T-50.png


    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  19. #9202

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Post 2 of 2

    Over the past 5 sessions we've been in a tight 1.35% range, and volume has been light (under the 50-SMA-VOL).
    SPX_DAILY
    20230512-CHRT.png

    ___
    Statistically speaking, it's much the same as I've reported over the previous 3 weeks, Mon/Thur good, Tue/Wed bad, Fri meh. The last 7 of 11 days down, last 3 Tue down, last 2 Thur down.
    20230512-DoW.png

    ___
    The AT's Top-600 lost -.24% last week, while the Top-50 lost -.41%
    20230512-AT.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  21. #9203

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    For the first time since the Aug high, the NASDAQ 100 is testing the 500-SMA.

    20230516.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  23. #9204

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    Default Re: JTH's Account Talk

    Good afternoon

    This is a market carpet, of the S&P 500's 503 stocks sorted by weight. Green is above and red is below the various timeframes. My weighted score for the Top-10 is 88%, and the Bottom-453 is -30%

    The further you go down the chart (in weight) the worse the performance, hence the sea of red...

    WEIGHT.png
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for February, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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