In the Bonus section of the previous blog I highlighted some of June's issues. Of note, Feb/Jun/Sep are the only months with a negative 63-year average return.
For the Month of June, our previous 42 years (1982-2003) have a 62% win ratio, for the 21-years prior (1961-1981) the win ratio was 38%. 63-years combined gives us a 54% win ratio.
We may want to consider the 1st few days of June might set the tone for how the month plays out. When
For those of you who still have skin in the game, from May's Top-11 of Trading Day 12, here's how the remainder of the month played out.
Our current May-2024 Trading Day 12 closed 5.19% MTD which would rank as 2nd best compared with the previous 63 years.
Of the Top-11:
11 of 11 times there was a higher close than trading day 12 to be found.
6 Of 11 times, the month's highest close was within the next 3 days (55% chance higher close).
4 of 11
May Trading Day 11 Closed 5.41% MTD, the 2nd Best Since 1990's 7.10% Trd-Dy-11
The number of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-Day Moving Average rides at 64%.
The Monthly Highs & Lows highlighted are where the S&P 500 peaked and bottomed.
I would estimate, if there were to be a pullback, the most likely area would be just before or after the Memorial Day weekend. At the same time, while I still
Where The Money Is Made & Lost: The Twelve Months
Part 1: Where The Money Is Made & Lost
Part 2: Presidential Cycles
Part 3: The Four Quarters
Part 4: The Twelve Months
Here’s the Top 20%, Middle 60% & Bottom 20% of months sorted into each of the 12 months.
Truncated: Our monthly Top & Bottom 20% are “outliers”. When it’s really good or bad, these are the months which have frequently given us extreme gains & losses.
Case
Where The Money Is Made & Lost: The Four Quarters
Part 1: Where The Money Is Made & Lost
Part 2: Presidential Cycles
Part 3: The Four Quarters
Part 4: The Twelve Months
Here’s the Top 20%, Middle 60% & Bottom 20% of months sorted into the the four quarters.
Truncated: Historically, Q4 performs the best, with Q1 & Q4 performing best in the middle. For the worst, Q3 has the highest monthly count, and generally was the weakest performer across
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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
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