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JTH

MARCON Advisory System

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JTH
, 01-30-2011 at 01:22 PM (3426 Views)
Market Conditions Advisory System.

MARCON is a percentage-scaled Market Advisory System with the scale consisting of five color-coded market advisory levels. These levels are intended to reflect the current market conditions across the broad indexes. This system is created as a means to give the reader an additional way to judge the strength of the markets. As previously stated, this is a MARKET ADVISORY SYSTEM. For the time being MARCON is not intended to give buy/sell signals. MARCON's current status can be seen on my avatar or by clicking on my signature block. This system will be updated over the weekend.

MARCON colors: Red-Extremely oversold, Orange-Prices declining, Yellow-Prices in transition, Blue-Prices rising, &
Green-Extremely overbought.


MARCON represents: The New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Transportation Average, Standard & Poors 500, Wilshire 4500 Completion Index, iShares EAFE Index, and PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund.
See Chart below
4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-marcon1-png

Represented by a single alphabetic letter: F-The F-Fund, C-The C-Fund, S-The S-Fund, I-The I-Fund.
See Chart above





5 Tools used to grade performance: Reference, Interpretation, Momentum, Trend, & Volume.
Reference - Uses 10, 25, 50, 75, & 90 percent price levels wrapped within the 26 week high/low price range. All indexes are judged from within this time frame on the Daily charts. See Chart below
4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-b1-png



Interpretation - Grades change in trend using 5 colored trendlines, using a basic 123 trend identification, complemented with a 3 day closing confirmation for surety.
See Chart below
4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-b2-png



Momentum - Uses a 5 Day Simple Moving Average wrapped within an (18, 3) Stochastic graded off the 90, 75, 50, 25, & 10 percentage levels within the 6-month window.
Trend - Uses a 5 Day Simple Moving Average wrapped within a (9, 12) PPO graded off the 90, 75, 50, 25, & 10 percentage levels within the 6-month window.
Volume - Uses a factor 5 Day Simple Moving Average wrapped within a 9 Money Flow Index graded off the graded off the 90, 75, 50, 25, & 10 percentage levels within the 6-month window.
See Chart below
4/16/04 transfer effective 4/19/04-b3-png

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Updated 04-11-2011 at 09:23 PM by JTH

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Comments

  1. Steel_Magnolia's Avatar
    Thanks for another tool in our financial arsenal, J. You are becoming quite the chart wizard. Way cool!
  2. JTH's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Steel_Magnolia
    Thanks for another tool in our financial arsenal, J. You are becoming quite the chart wizard. Way cool!
    Thanks, I've put a considerable amount of time into this system, applying the many lessons I've learned over the years. MARCON contains balance & simplicity and should serve the forum well.
  3. david.alan.williams's Avatar
    Waaaay Cool. I've been trying to figure out a good method to enhance the M-SMA. Right now, it's just S and F but would really like to figure out a way to know if C or I have better market conditions over S during a given 2 week span.

    Great Job!
  4. JTH's Avatar
    MARCON levels are painting an accurate picture across the indexes, I've done some tweaking replacing the trend moving average indicators with a Price Percentage Oscillator. I'm pleased with the tweak and more importantly it helps me overlay the Momentum/Trend/Volume indicators into one area, giving me a quick read. I've also tweaked the way the channels are graded within the 5 stages of a trend change. Life is good, I'm comfortable with my trading decisions and I sleep better as a result.
    Updated 02-03-2011 at 11:46 AM by JTH
  5. JTH's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by david.alan.williams
    Waaaay Cool. I've been trying to figure out a good method to enhance the M-SMA. Right now, it's just S and F but would really like to figure out a way to know if C or I have better market conditions over S during a given 2 week span.

    Great Job!
    You may find this a good read, let me know what you think.
    Multicollinearity
  6. RealMoneyIssues's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by JTH
    You may find this a good read, let me know what you think.
    Multicollinearity
    [head spinning]Was that in english?

S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time) 		DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time) 		EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time) 		BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes