Summary: IFT-Cutoff % Performance vs. the session close is statistically the most reliable, followed by opening gaps. Combined, the two are stronger together (more so for buyers on the downside). The two stats go against each other 28% of the time, but when they do, the gains & losses look to be relatively flat. If undecided, the best choice is to do nothing, or go with the direction of the IFT-Cutoff (if it is positive).
From Tom's Commentary
"Not that this helps or
May 2024 ranked 7th best of the 64 Months of May, and 107th best of all 762 months.
On the YTD Scale, May 2024’s 10.64% YTD gain ranks 17th best of 64 years. Theoretically, this puts us on track for a 20% to 30% 2024.
Of the 43 times May was positive YTD, June closed higher 70% of the time with an average gain of 2.82%, or closed lower 30% of the time with an average loss of -2.39%.
In the Bonus section of the previous blog I highlighted some of June's issues. Of note, Feb/Jun/Sep are the only months with a negative 63-year average return.
For the Month of June, our previous 42 years (1982-2003) have a 62% win ratio, for the 21-years prior (1961-1981) the win ratio was 38%. 63-years combined gives us a 54% win ratio.
We may want to consider the 1st few days of June might set the tone for how the month plays out. When
For those of you who still have skin in the game, from May's Top-11 of Trading Day 12, here's how the remainder of the month played out.
Our current May-2024 Trading Day 12 closed 5.19% MTD which would rank as 2nd best compared with the previous 63 years.
Of the Top-11:
11 of 11 times there was a higher close than trading day 12 to be found.
6 Of 11 times, the month's highest close was within the next 3 days (55% chance higher close).
4 of 11
May Trading Day 11 Closed 5.41% MTD, the 2nd Best Since 1990's 7.10% Trd-Dy-11
The number of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-Day Moving Average rides at 64%.
The Monthly Highs & Lows highlighted are where the S&P 500 peaked and bottomed.
I would estimate, if there were to be a pullback, the most likely area would be just before or after the Memorial Day weekend. At the same time, while I still
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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
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