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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap-Up - The Herd Shifts Toward the G-fund

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The C-fund's weekly winning streak was extended to a fifth week, but it was the dominant performance by the S-fund that stole the show. A rally across the stock market led the C and I-funds to respectable sub 1% gains, meanwhile that same rally propelled the S-fund to a weekly gain of over 3.5%.

As the S-fund continued its dominance through the end of November and into the new month, TSP Talk AutoTracker members began to sell the small-cap TSP fund. That was mostly true among 2023's best TSP Talk AutoTracker performers.

The amount of S-fund held by TSP Talk AutoTracker members fell from 31.6% to 28.7% through the week. In fact there was a drop in allocations across all three TSP stock funds (C,S, and I) for the week. That was countered with a an increase from 33.9% to 38.5% of the G-fund allocations held by the end of the week. A more than 4% increase in the G-fund in only a week of trading is a significant move by a community of 673 members who are limited to a set of IFTs a month.

Naturally swing traders want to sell-high, but there may have been some influence from the top members of the community. The top five members held 80% S-fund at the beginning of the week, they now hold just 10% among them. Four of the top five members moved from 100% S-fund to 100% G-fund today; all four sold too early and missed Friday's rally. The fifth member among them moved against the current and moved out of the G-fund and into stocks this week.

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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending December 1:

The SPY (C-fund) price has come to a head with the July highs. So far it has not kick started broad selling, and the ETF closed above the would be resistance line on Friday. This is a hard chart to buy into right now, but some may be influenced by the seasonal self-fulfilling prophecy.

The amount of C-fund held across the TSP Talk AutoTracker did drop by one percent this week, so there has been a slight shift away from the C-fund.

The C-fund gained 0.83% for the week but was vastly outperformed by the S-fund.

The S-fund owned November, and its dominance continued onto the first day of December. After finishing November with a 10.67% gain for the month on Thursday, the S-fund was quickly up 2.5% for December after the first trading day of the month.

Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk - Market Commentary. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Thomas Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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