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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up - FOMO Fuel

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The S&P 500 (C-fund) was the preferred destination for eager buyers this week. The large cap index's price did not stray too far from even for most of the week, but the underinvested jumped into the index Friday to lift prices more than 1.5% on Friday. The S-fund also enjoyed a gain of over 1% on Friday, but its early weakness in the week left it with a weekly loss of 1.5%.

Will the Friday rally live through the weekend? Friday's lack of real catalyst exposes the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) as the primary driver of the rally. The underinvested are eager to jump in as the C-fund has accumulated over 5% gain in just the eight days of trading in November. Many investors were beat down by the losses of the previous two months and now they do not want to be left behind during the rebound higher.

FOMO can drive prices higher for longer than seems reasonable, but there is some technical resistance above all of the TSP stock funds that could quickly turn buyers into sellers. These include the moving averages and trendlines highlighted in the charts below. Some investors may be looking for another dip to get back in and potentially position themselves for the rest of the year if they expect a typical year-end rally.

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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 9:

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The C-fund was the sole positive return outside of the G-fund this week. The fund was around even on Thursday but a rally on Friday carried the C-fund to a gain of over 1%. The SPY (C-fund) price remained above the 50-day EMA trend line it had surpassed the previous week and did not fall back to fill the most recent open gap. Instead, it ran into a descending trend line created by the peaks of the last four months. The C-fund ended the week with a gain of 1.35%.

day trading vs hold steady-tsp-c-fund-111223-jpg

The S-fund's momentum moved to the opposite direction of the C-fund. The DWCPF (S-fund) index felt resistance from its 50-day EMA. The index pulled back this week to fill the open gap created the previous Friday. The index has another open gap below, will that gap be closed next? The S-fund lagged the TSP funds with a 1.52% loss.

day trading vs hold steady-tsp-s-fund-111223-jpg

The F-fund pulled back this week, but it did successfully remain above its 50-day EMA for the week. The open gap created last week was closed but that did not drag the bond market down much lower. There is one more open gap in reach, and it is on the underside of the 50-day EMA. The F-fund declined 0.28% for the week.

day trading vs hold steady-tsp-f-fund-111223-jpg

Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk - Market Commentary. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Thomas Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes