Recent Blogs Posts

For the month of August, let me preface this by stating (from my viewpoint), August is a lower-middle tier month. It doesn't have impressive statistics on the Monthly, Daily, & MTD time-frames, it just lacks that “wow” factor other months have. I'll go more into detail after the July close, but for now here's a quick overview.

The 1st Day of Aug has the lowest 1st Day of the Month win ratio of all months at 41%. But... of the 26 of 63 times the 1st day closed positive, the month had ...

For TSP'ers, this may be one of the toughest years to decide which fund to be in. Historically when one of the stock funds went up, the others went up as well, but maybe not to the same degree. This year we've been big differences in the daily, weekly, and months gains between the C, S, and I funds making it a meaningful and consequential choice. Yesterday was another good example with the S-fund gaining over 1% on the day, while the C and I funds lost 0.51% and 0.63% respectively, after a late ...

Wednesday the S&P 500 closed -2.32%, of the past 16,032 sessions, 417 closed ≤ -2.00%. This comprises 2.6% of all sessions from 1961-Present.


While ≤ -2.00% sessions are not common, they do tend to cluster around significant historical events.

Of these 416 sessions:

5.5% occurred during the 2022 Bear market.
10.8% occurred during the 2019-2020 COVID market.
19.2% occurred during the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis.
14.4% occurred ...

Stocks sold off yesterday with the S&P 500 having its worst day since late 2022, and it had been 356 trading days since the last 2% loss. The Dow was down 500-points, which was only half the loss percentage-wise, but it was the big tech Nasdaq that was hurt the most with a painful 3.64% decline. Small caps tried to hold up but eventually fell in sympathy with tech.

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Stocks were mixed and choppy on Tuesday and that's 3 losses in the last 4 days for the S&P 500, but small caps managed another decent gain. The I-fund lagged with the dollar up again, and bonds were basically flat despite a dip in yields. The large caps are getting a little weak in the knees as we enter earrings season for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq leaders, and it wasn't a good start last night.

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