Uncategorized

Where The Money Is Made & Lost: The Four Quarters

Previously

Part 1: Where The Money Is Made & Lost

Part 2: Presidential Cycles

Here’s the Top 20%, Middle 60% & Bottom 20% of months sorted into the the four quarters.

Truncated: Historically, Q4 performs the best, with Q1 & Q4 performing best in the middle. For the worst, Q3 has the highest monthly count, and generally was the weakest performer across all three charts.
...

Where The Money Is Made & Lost: Presidential Cycles

Truncated: Historically, from Kennedy to Trump, Election & Post cycle years are stable and consistent, Mid-Cycle has a strong downside bias, while Pre-Cycle has a strong upside bias.

The Top 20% of Pre-Cycle years have the highest count & cumulative gains (45 months @ 270%).
The Middle 60% of Election Years have the highest monthly count, but it's the Pre-Cycle with the highest cumulative gains.
The Bottom ...

Greetings

March 2024 was yet another phenomenal month. Compared with the previous 63, this March 2024 ranked 21 of 64 with a 3.10% monthly gain.

---

While it's still too early to make a call, based on YTD data (31 years filtered) we might speculate (or project) a yearly 96.8% win ratio with an average gain of 18.58%.

___The chart below shows where we currently fall within the 63-year historical YTD range. Here we can ...

Greetings

TLDR: When The C-Fund closes up, the FSI Funds are more likely to close up. When The C-Fund closes down, the FSI Funds are less likely to close down.

Since I consider our C-Fund to be the standard by which all other funds should be measured, I thought it would be a good time to measure the correlation of the funds. Simply put, how often do the FSI funds trade in the same direction or against the C-Fund. For this study I've chosen to use 11, 27, 55, & 101 sessions, ...

Happy New Year

This is the 3rd & final of a three-part series starting off 2024 with blogs covering the Yearly, Quarterly, and Monthly timeframe.

Ranking 11th of 63, December of 2023 closed up 4.42% making it a Top 17% close across the past 63 months of December. Our MTD intra-high was 5.13% ranking 11th, and our MTD intra-low was -.28% ranking 9th best.


___
We are now using a new 63-year timeframe from 1961-2023. Comparing ...