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Fund share prices as of: 9/18/07
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Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)
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Market embraces the Fed The Fed gave the market what it wanted to hear. There was some concern that no matter what was said and done, the market would have a reason to sell-off, but as is usually the case, the market does what is least expected. The 0.50% rate cut seemed to please everyone. Not only did the Fed behave, but the PPI report was rather tame and Lehman Brothers earnings report came in much better than expected. It was the trifecta. The news could not have been any better and because of that, each of the 3 stock funds were up about 3% for the day. I was nervous and did not want to gamble on the outcome, but the EbbChart System was again on the right side of the trade - as was the Sentiment Survey System. Those systems are now up 27.3% and 19.8% respectively for 2007. Today we get the CPI report, which can be even more important than the PPI. We also have earnings from Morgan Stanley. The EbbChart System is now taking a defensive move into the F fund for the rest of the week. Maybe it is somehow sniffing out a little weaker report. Check out the EbbChart page for more information. Trader Fred's TSP Trader System is in the G-fund today. His Summed Volume / Market Resistance Indicator has been very interesting to watch lately.  Read more about it on Fred's system page. If you missed it yesterday, the Fedsmith posted a couple of new articles for us. The first is the survey results - Trading TSP Funds: Should There Be a Fee When Investors Trade? The other is called $2.9 Billion Traded from TSP Stock Funds in August. Read it and prior TSP articles on the TSP Corner page. It should be an interesting day again and while we are due for an overbought pullback, the Fed momentum could persist at least a little longer. There is a tendency to see the market reverse after a big move in one direction after a Fed meeting, but it's not every day that the market gets a 0.50% Fed Funds / Discount rate cut. I have to cut this short again today as I have been spending the night stuffing dozens of TSP Talk T-shirts into envelopes for some of the more active members of our message board. It's my way of thanking the folks who have been most active in taking the time to help answer questions from some of the newer members, and give to their opinions on the market and other TSP facts and features. The shirts came out nice. They have the logo in the front pocket area, and we had a contest to pick the slogan for the back. The winners were: "Friend don't let friends buy and hold..." "The smart money posts here..." "It's a No-Brainer!" If I have some left I will use them for prizes for the monthly returns contest we run on the message board. I may also sell some if there is an interest. We'll see how many I have left or if it's worth ordering more. That's all for today. I am currently 100% F-fund. See you tomorrow. Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.
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