We came into this week knowing much of Wall Street would be on vacation and that the low volume trading would make for some volatility.  We have seen just that.  We've had big up days and big down days.  We've had big intraday sell-offs turn into gains, and drop down again.  I expect more of the same today.

I jumped into the I-fund for today based on the strong Friday before Labor Day weekend seasonal bias.  We also have the EbbChart system in the I-fund today, and Trader Fred has been working on some short-term submodels, which are in test mode, and it had a one day buy signal for Friday.  So I am leaving the safety of bonds and the F-fund, for at least one day.  The bond fund has done rather well lately, being up 1.4% in August while, with one day to go, the C-fund is a distant second at +0.43% .

Here is another look at the September seasonality chart.  The first few days are quite positive but many years that would equate to action prior to the holiday weekend, while other years it's post holiday as it is this year. 
 



September is actually the worst month historically in terms of times positive, and return.




                                   Charts provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

It should be an interesting day.  The futures look good as I write this Thursday night, as do the overseas markets, but that can turn on a dime at any time.  Ben Bernanke will be speaking on housing and monetary policy in Jackson Hole, Wyoming today.  We all know what that can do to the market - good or bad.  The interesting thing is that if Ben is positive, the markets should rally.  If Ben's talk is more pessimistic or monetarily unfriendly, the dollar should drop thus giving some support to the I-fund.

Trader Fred's TSP Trader System remains in the F-fund.  Still no signs of life from this system at least for the next week or so.  Read more on his system page.

The EbbChart System is still in rhythm with the markets despite yesterday's small loss.  It is up over 5% for August.  Today it finds itself in the I-fund,  and we have a contrarian move sandwiched in between two x-check days coming up.  What does that mean?  Find out on the ebbchart system page.

If the futures hold up and we can get a strong morning in stocks, I will likely take the money and run back into the F-fund.  I'm still being defensive because of Trader Fred's strength charts,the fact that the Sentiment Survey system will remain in the G-fund next week after a neutral 1.59 to 1 bulls to bears ratio, and September's dismal historic record.

That's all for today.   I am currently 100% I- fund, but not for long.  Look for another possible email alert today.  Have a great holiday weekend, and we'll see you back here Tuesday morning.

Have you seen the new TSP.gov Email Updates? This is a free service sponsored by the TSP and provided through GovDelivery.

Have questions?  Visit our message board for answers. 

Would you like to be on our email alert list?  We will send you an email when there is a change to our asset allocation or market outlook.  Your email address will never be given out.  Read our privacy policy.  By signing up you agree to the TSP Talk Terms of Service.  More details below **.

Are you bullish or bearish?  Join the Weekly Sentiment Survey.

Like what you're reading?  Tell a Friend about us.