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Fund share prices as of: 8/09/07
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Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)
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Fear
in the air Here we go again. The big recovery rally turned south yesterday as it looks like the market wants to do some testing. Incredibly, even after a day like yesterday (The Dow lost over 380 points if you missed it) the major averages are actually still up for the week. The volatility is in full force with 11 of the last 14 trading days seeing triple digit gains or losses in the Dow. The S&P 500 is now down 6.6% from last month's high and yet the amount of fear in the air is suffocating. We're not used to losses anymore.  Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com After the bell, Countrywide gave an ominous warning about their state of affairs and the futures took another nosedive on the news.  The credit crunch is going to affect a lot of businesses so we probably shouldn't be too surprised by these announcements. This morning could be the washout we need to bottom out. But then again, that 6.6% is really nothing, it's just that things are looking very strong for the market based on the indicators, but right now it's the emotions that are in charge. Fear and greed are doing battle and fear is leading at the moment. You know my motto: Buy fear, sell euphoria. But fear can be a little early. We haven't seen panic or capitulation yet. Maybe this morning.  The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey System remains on a buy signal for next week after yesterday's neutral 1.61 bulls (52%) to bears (32%) ratio. I have to make this quick today, but it's just as well. What else can be said? But before I go, I do want to say that if you are anywhere close to retirement, say five years or less, you should not be getting too aggressive. Let things blow over rather than trying to pick a bottom like I am. I truly believe in 3 months we'll be glad we bought here, but if I'm wrong I have a long time to recover. Some of you may not have that luxury. Trader Fred's TSP Trader System is now in the F-fund after yesterday's interfund transfer. Read what Trader Fred has to say today on his system page. The EbbChart System is in the I-fund today but it's on the move again. Find out more on the ebbchart system page. Fear is in the air and if you can take the heat, it's usually a good time to buy looking out 1 to 3 months. If you rode the market down you are kind of stuck now. If you are worried about the short-term, there is no harm in waiting for stability. Trying to pick the bottom can be painful. That's all for today. I am currently 25% C, 50% S, 25% I-fund. Be careful out there. Have a great weekend! Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.
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