Jobs report

Let's make this quick today.  It's been a long week and we have a long weekend ahead of us...

Stocks managed modest gains yesterday as it was slow going in front of today's jobs report.

The estimates for the September jobs report is for 100,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.7%.  Remember, August's  report came in at a negative number so let's see if that is revised at all.

With this report looming, there is little do but wait for it and see what happens.  There is a trend of stocks reversing big moves in the market days after the report, if the surprise is +/- 20,000 or more from estimates, and the S&P is up or down 0.50% or more.

The tidbit below is from sentimentrader.com and shows the strong negative bias of October's  return during years ending in 7.  Take it for what it's worth.  It is pretty consistent but is it just a statistical fluke?  Average is -8.5%??  Wow!

                                

Combine that with the market sentiment getting more and more bullish to the point of starting to become excessive, so we could have an uphill battle this month.

Here is the results of this week's Sentiment Survey.  The 2.44 to 1 bulls to bears ratio leaves that system on a sell signal for next week.  That's the first time we've saw back to back 2.0 to 1 or higher weeks since February.

                        

If you are planning on making an interfund transfer in the near future, the TSP had this posted on their website:                       

  
                         
I can not confirm this as no one seems to know for sure, but I believe that means if you want to make a transfer that will be effective on Tuesday of next week, it has to be done between 12 noon ET  and possibly 4 PM ET (I'm not certain of the latter time).  The market is open Monday, but the TSP does not process transactions because of the Federal holiday.

If you made it this far I'll throw in that the Ebbchart System will be in the I-fund Monday, and the S-fund Tuesday.  That was for those of you with ongoing login issues to the new services. I will be working on it all day today and hopefully we'll be back to normal by Tuesday morning when I'm back here.  Out of respect for those paying for that service, that will be the last time I can do that.

That's all for today.  Enjoy your long holiday weekend!
 

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