Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Interesting ... and it's the end of the first quarter.

Stocks are up this morning as dip buyers show up after the 2-day pullback. Yields are up, the dollar is flat to slightly lower.

The I-fund is leading on the upside was a gain of 0.44%.

We have oil down, gold is up, and bitcoin is holding steady near 70,000.

So far no negative reaction to the bridge collapse in Baltimore, but that is a major port being closed to vessel traffic.

It's a quiet week for economic data and it is a holiday shortened week as the first quarter winds down.

Strong openings and weak closes has been the most recent trend, and we have a set up for another possible negative reversal day, but can the bulls change this trend?

Yields are down and the dollar is up so unsurprisingly the I-fund (EFA) is lagging to start the day, but all of the indices are higher and will struggle to avoid the afternoon sell-offs that we have been seeing in recent trading.

The repeating pattern looks promising for the bulls in early trading, but again it's the close that counts.




Gold is up while oil and bitcoin are down. Japan was up overnight and European markets are mixed with the FTSE down while the French and German markets are up.

Tom... Noticed in your Daily Market Commentary, & often for other past days it seems, that for the EFA/I-fund you mention the open gaps -- as having seemingly equal magnetism or drawing equal weight for being Filled by the market as C & S funds. That doesn't seem congruent with the following: (1) TSP I-fund and the EFA are (I think) impacted more than C & S funds by fluctuations of the relative values of currencies, thus gaps much more common & not as important as other non-international stocks/exchanges; & (2) I didn't go back to check, yet I vaguely recall in years-past commentaries that you mentioned/explained what I discuss in "(1)" here.
... So, what do you think about this, about gaps for the I-fund in contrast with those of C & S?

I do agree with that. Good call!

The overseas trading makes for many more open gaps on the EFA and the dollar charts.

They probably don't get filled as frequently as our index charts, as you said, but if you do trade the EFA ETF, the reasoning behind the fills is still there. That is, if the gaps get filled, some traders / investors are made whole by the fill and tend to act - if that makes sense.

So if someone sold EFA back near the close on March 5, they may be reluctant to buy it again until it came back to that price. Once there (gap filled) those people may buy again and the support holds.

If someone bought that close, they may not buy more until it came back to that price, or they may put in a stop order in at that break even level.

So those are some reasons why gap analysis works.

It was a mixed open today with small caps leading and the Nasdaq and I-fund lagging so far, which is interesting since European markets are all up nicely, but Japan took a hit last night.

Small caps (S-fund) are up again but potentially nearing some resistance although, after the 3-day pullback earlier in the week, may have some sustaining power as we enter early April - one of the stronger seasonal periods of the year.




Bond yields and the dollar are mostly flat after a weaker than expected Chicago PMI report and a stronger than expected University of Michigan consumer sentiment report.

Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all up strongly this morning.

We have a 3-day weekend coming up in the market with the key PCE Prices report tomorrow despite the market being closed.

The positive overnight futures flattened out by the opening bell this morning, and a big jump in yields and the dollar is putting pressure on stocks.

I don't know exactly why yields are moving up (ISM was a little hot), but I have been talking about this inverted head and shoulders pattern forming on the 10-year, and it does suggest at least a retest of the 4.35% area, but these patterns typically breakout to the upside.




Small caps are not happy with higher yields and they are leading on the downside.

Japan was down last night and Europe looks green, but the rally in the dollar may keep the pressure the I-fund.

Gold and oil are up this morning despite the strong dollar, while bitcoin is down.

It very early into Tuesday's session and the bears are growling. Yields are up again, breaking above the recent highs as there are now doubts about a June interstate cut.

The S&P and other indices gapped lower and some are quickly testing the recent wall of support that has been holding all year.

Europe is a sea of red while Japan closed slightly higher last night.

Gold and oil are up while bitcoin is down sharply.

Stocks are up early today after the two day pullback to start the month. Yields have ticked up again and the market may be trying to decide if a 4.4% 10-year yield is any worse than the 4.0% to 4.3% range it has been in while stocks were rallying the last few months.

The S&P and other index charts are dealing with the overhead gap from Tuesday. The same pattern played out in Feb - March and while it got a little choppy then, it worked out fine for the bulls. Can it repeat?




Gold, silver, oil, bitcoin are all up this morning, thanks to a second down day for the dollar, which may have broken some short term support.

A gap up open on Thursday morning is helping the indices to continue to bounce off of recent support. We'll see how aggressive these buyers remain as we head toward the close and into Friday morning's jobs report. Inflation has been a concern again with oil and other commodities rising lately, and a hot jobs market doesn't do the rate cut odds any good.

The gap (blue) on the DWCPF (S-fund) was filled while opening another below (red).

The dollar is down again helping pushing prices higher, and...



Yields are also down and the 10-year fills in a gap itself.

The jobs report estimates are looking for a gain of 200K to 210K jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.8%.

Quite a gap and crap thanks to another loose lipped Fed member saying we may not need rate cuts this year.

Why speculate outloud when the other members are not in agreement, unless he's day trading.

The close will be key.