Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

The monthly CPI Report came inline with estimates while the Core CPI was a tick higher than expected. This sent stocks higher initially but they quickly erased all of those gains before the relentless dipped buyers showed up again.




Bond yields are up on the data, but nothing that is concerning the stock market. Oil is up, gold, silver, and bitcoin are down as the dollar as the dollar was also up on the slightly stronger than expected CPI.

Both the 10-year yield and the dollar moved back above some key moving averages on the news, although the dollar is well off its initial high and trying to fill the opening gap already.




So far it looks like just another bounce off the 20-day EMA on the S&P 500, and the most recent pullbacks haven't even hit the average before the dip buyers showed up.




Oh, and the demise of Nvidia has been greatly exaggerated. It's up 5% this morning after a 2-day pullback.

Today it looks like it's the small caps' turn to take the lead, despite yields moving high this morning. The S-fund is up 0.60% while the S&P is down slightly. Perhaps interest rates aren't the only thing on investors' mind these days?

The 10-year yield gapped above its' 50-day EMA while the dollar is down just slightly but it is starting to look like a failure at the 50-day EMA. Maybe it's too close to call at this point. The I-fund is flat to start the day.




It used to be Apple, but it's, as goes Nvidia, so goes the market. Nvidia is down 3% today weighing on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Another down day here and it may start looking more toppy, although it is still above it's 20-day EMA so it's tough to get too bearish?

OK, so we got another hot inflation number in the PPI report this morning. While we have talked about the market being a little less concerned about interest rates lately, this morning's move in the 10-year yield is getting a little serious as it flirts with the previous high, and seems to be trending higher.




The dollar is also up and this, combined with higher yields, is putting pressure on stocks to start the day, especially small caps. Gold and bitcoin are also down, while oil is up.

Small caps are up moderately this morning, otherwise it's another sell off after the CPI and PPI sent yields higher and investors running. Big tech is leading on the downside although Nvidia is up over 1%.

The 10-year yield is up again and threatening making a higher high.




Oil and gold are down slightly this morning, while bitcoin pulls back further from its recent peak.

Gotta love it

S&P 500, 3rd Friday's 15th day of March had the highest volume since the 3rd Friday's 15th day of the December.

Looks like 15 of the last 27 OpsEx closed down, so a 42% win rate. I hate to go short, but it sure is tempting

The S&P 500 (C-fund) came running out of the gate this morning with Nvidia leading the way, and other AI news with Apple and Google working on a Gemini deal. With large cap techs taking center stage, it is once again the large cap C-fund getting the attention while the small caps and I-fund lag.

Small caps are under the weight of higher yields again this morning. The dollar is also up slightly this morning, putting some pressure on the I-fund and keeping the gain limited so far.




Oil is up this morning, gold is flat, and bitcoin is down.

It's day one of the FOMC meeting and we don't usually get much info out of that. JTH put out some interesting stats on FOMC weeks HERE.

The early action has the S&P down modestly filling in Monday's open gap. The "stealth gap" is what I call the area from Friday's closing price (as opposed to Friday's high) up to Monday's low, so that is still open. The 15 day EMA has been holding and there's some wiggle room below today's low if it is going to test that again.



The S-fund (DWCPF) made a lower low yesterday but is off the lows, but now below that 30-day average. The negative reversal earlier this month does look "toppy" but a falling wedge can act like a bull flag so 1900 needs to hold.

Yields are down so maybe we do have a mini double top forming there.



The dollar broke above resistance to the I-fund may be left behind today.

The Nikkei was up last night, while European markets are mixed. Oil is up again, gold and bitcoin are down (bitcoin is off 7%).

It's a slow start to a busy day for the market as the Fed's decision on interest rates looms. Stocks are slightly lower, but mostly flat. Yields are down a bit, but the dollar is up again.

Oil is down sharply, gold is up (despite strength in the dollar) and bitcoin continues to pullback.

These could all move wildly in a few hours when they release the policy statement.

Japan rallied last night and Europe is mixed although mostly flat.

Small caps are up slightly but the S-fund chart is trading above the descending resistance line this morning.




The Transports are also trading above some resistance this morning (see today's commentary for more on that key level) but it is just barely positive on this calm before this afternoon's potential storm.

The post-Fed rally resumed to start the day despite a few headwinds. Yields and the dollar up up this morning - perhaps back-filling some significant moves lower yesterday.

The US indices are at, or testing, previous highs but the I-fund is feeling the impact of the rally in the dollar and is only flat this morning.




The S-fund is touching new highs for the year, but is still off those 2021 highs.




Oil is down, gold and bitcoin are up.

Stocks are down and backing filling in yesterday's open gaps to start the day. The indices look extended again as they tag their overhead, but rising, resistance lines. Whether the S&P comes back to test the 30-day average again, I don't know, but that's been the trend.

The 10-year Treasury Yield is down as it forms what could be a right shoulder, and the dollar is up making new highs for the year after the Fed driven sell off on Wednesday.




The Transports gapped up big on FedEx earnings, but they are off their highs and trying to fill the morning gap.

Japan was up last night, and Europe is mixed.

Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all down from the weight of the strong dollar.

It's a holiday shortened week and that makes it vulnerable to a pre-holiday reversal from the trend. We see some weakness in the big three indices to start the day, but small caps are actually up.

Yields are up slightly but the dollar is down trying to fill in the gap it opened on Friday.




We have some strength in commodities with the dollar down as oil, gold and bitcoin are all up this morning.

Japan was down last night and Europe is mixed.