Thread: 3/12 for 3/15/04

What a horrible move to the I fund..What were u thinking Tom...? Never mind..I already know..!!!

I don't mind comments about my allocations, but please no Monday morning quarterbacking.

By the way, what makes the I fund anyworse than another allocation Monday?

C fund down 1.44%, S fund down 1.92%, I fund down 1.45% ? Bad day all around.

TC

Come on skycop, cut Tom some slack. The guy knows of what he speaks. I agree no Monday morning quarterbacking here. Let's here your thoughts on allocations and reasons why/why not. Let's keep it real. AB

The more I thought about it, the more I'm thinking skycop's post could be the contrarian indicator of the week. The I fund was up about 1 1/2% the day ofhis "what were you thinking"comment. This is not a knock on sky, we all do it. It's just amazing how the extreme sentimentis wrongat the tops and the bottoms.

This is what I am talking about when I show those sentiment surveys on the comments page. Maybe I should have stayed in the I fund. How's that for Tuesday night quarterbacking ? At least I got 50% of that gain Tuesday. Now Japan is up almost 2% tonight.

Tom

Again, this is not a knock on skycop, but the I fund shot up 2.6% in the 4 days following his "What were u thinking" comment. When someone chimes in like that, someonewho doesn't understandour (should I speak for myself?) thinking (contrarian, buy fear, sell euphoria) it is usually a great sign that the market will go against their comment.

I spent many years trying to trade stocks not understanding this concept. Iwould buy a stock that would go down relentlessly, and just as soon as I couldn't take it any more and sold, it would bouncealmost immediately.I began to read about it and learned that a point comes wheneveryone whowants to sell has sold, there are no more sellers to pull it down anymore. So, if you feel the pain, it's time to buymore! When you start calculating profits on a winning trade, it's time to sell because sure as sh*t, it's coming down.

This information could help trim years of confusion for someone new to this. I liken this to buying a stock when you hear good news on a company only to see itdrop. You shake your head in disbelief. That goes along with "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news." The markets are continually humbling andit tends to make people wrong, particularly at tops and bottoms. When something seemsobvious,play it the other way.

Tom

Look like the stock are dow the hill,

may be time to buy stock share at low price?.

or stay put in sidelines ? :X



My actual allocations:

95-G

5-F

Hi PR

Sorry I didn't respond earlier, I just saw your post. I hope you saw my other post about staying out for now, but it may be time to move in slowly, like start tranferring 25% tomorrow. Again, I'm going to wait and see.

Looks like your 5% in theF fundmay get you a small gain today

Tom