Thread: F Fund where will it go ?

Originally Posted by ATCJeff

F fund will be below 12 in two weeks.

Only took 6 days. Nice call.

So I am wondering if anyone's crystal ball is operating at all. I recall the 70's (stagflation)and in the end of that decade inflation and interest rates were in double digits. I recall getting a 8.5% COLA in Carter's last year in office but I also bought a house in 1981 and had to pay 14 5/8% interest on a loan to get into that house.
There was no F fund at that time....so what will the F fund be doing under those circumstances, that is, with high interest rates. Will the F fund rise. Or will it tank. Does the value of F fund shares only rise in declining interest rate environments?
Do we all run and hide in the G fund? Or so we take our 5% match and look for other places for our money?

Hi logdoc -
This is from my 2/25/08 commentary...

Bonds (the AGG) remain in an uptrend as the Fed continues its rate cutting mission. The recent inflationary data would have us believe that rates may have to stabilize at best here, and possibly move higher (which would cause bonds and the F-fund to move lower), but the slow down in the economy and the credit crisis makes this a tough call for the Fed. They indicated that they will remain aggressive cutting rates for now, but may have to shoot them back up quickly once the economy appears back on track.

Inflation is a concern but certainly not out of control like the 70's. The Fed is aggressively cutting rates so I wouldn't abandon the F entirely until the chart breaks down. The AGG is down today but the low made last week is hanging on for now. If that breaks on a closing basis, I'd be more willing to switch back to the G fund. For now, we could be at the bottom of an asending trading channel for the F fund.

OK right now the F Fund looks good. Any advice for next week on the F Fund. It was up 7 cents today I thought it would be 9 but any thoughts would be appreciated.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG...d=p03515914213

If the markets retest their lows the F should retest its highs.

Originally Posted by Show-me

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG...d=p03515914213

If the markets retest their lows the F should retest its highs.

Thanks for the information and the link - Braveheart

Has the F gone up too fast? Is it too late to get in next week?

Originally Posted by clester

Has the F gone up too fast? Is it too late to get in next week?

Read 350z posts about the F Fund. After I read them and others you have to conclude it's a good play and it's not too late. I would rather chip away 5 cents here and there then get hammered because one Ambac rumor report caused a fake market and a 200 point swing last week. That changed the market in a bad way.

It gave people hope for a turnaround but it was only a matter of time Wednesday when the market saw it was overpriced on a rumor. Yesterday down 100+ and then today 300+. If you can't trust the market and all the news is bad day after day the Bonds and the F Fund will be OK. But again see 350Z's posts, charts etc. every bit of information is vital today.

Does anyone think there may be a dead cat bounce on Monday???

Z makes a real strong case for the TNX/MACD. I just ran the figures and being in the F fund 10/15 -> 12/5 and 12/25 -> 1/30 and otherwise being in the G fund would have returned 6.25% since 10/15. I don't know about the the rest of you but I moved out of the F Fund at the begining of the year to take advantage of strong seasonality and received a real spanking (-3.5%), finally getting out 1/10. Been sitting on the sidelines since then trying to figure out this crazy market. Unless some news comes out Monday morning to make me change my mind I'll take the G penny Monday and move to the F fund.

Originally Posted by ou81200

Does anyone think there may be a dead cat bounce on Monday???

I would say No to a Dead Cat Bounce on Monday.

UNLESS CNBC has some breaking Good news. This can happen at any time and has over the last couple of weeks.

IMHO, I think the Market is and has been on Stilt's coming from the FOMC and Congress. I.E. Stimulus Package.

Anything can happen. We could a get a surprise Rate Cut at any time.

A Major Bank could Fold. Look at the Dollar, It's Pathetic... Oil at all time High's.

Hell I need another fill on the 550 Gallon Oil Tank Soon. I'll bet it will cost me $1350.00

Making a Play on the Market's right now is down right Gambling.

Do I do it ? Yes.... But in very little Amount's...