Thread: PCE Prices / Personal Income and Spending

Fed’s favorite gauge shows inflation rose 0.2% in October and 3.5% from a year ago, as expected

The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Both numbers aligned with the Dow Jones consensus.

PCE inflation report October 2023:

Fed’s favorite inflation gauge shows prices rose at 3.2% annual rate in November, less than expected

The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose just 0.1% in November and was up 3.2% from a year ago, both close to expectations.

On a six-month basis, core PCE was up 1.9%, below the Fed’s 12-month target.

Including food and energy costs, so-called headline PCE actually fell 0.1% on the month and was up just 2.6% from a year ago.

PCE inflation November 2023:

Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose 0.2% in December and was up 2.9% from a year ago

The core personal consumption expenditures price index for December, an important gauge for the Federal Reserve, increased 0.2% on the month and was up 2.9% on a yearly basis.

Including volatile food and energy costs, headline inflation also rose 0.2% for the month and held steady at 2.6% annually.

Consumer spending increased 0.7%, stronger than the 0.5% estimate. Personal income growth edged lower to 0.3%, in line with the forecast.

PCE inflation December 2023:


Meanwhile, these came in hotter than expected:

Personal Income

For: Dec | Actual: 0.3% | B.com Forecast: 0.2% | Prior: 0.4%


Personal Spending

For: Dec | Actual: 0.7% | B.com Forecast: 0.4% | Prior: 0.4% | Revised From: 0.2%

Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.4% in January as expected, up 2.8% from a year ago

Headline PCE, including the volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% on a 12-month basis, compared with respective estimates for 0.3% and 2.4%, according to the numbers released Thursday by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The moves came amid an unexpected jump in personal income, which rose 1%, well above the forecast for 0.3%. Spending decreased 0.1% versus the estimate for a 0.2% gain.

PCE report January 2023: Key inflation measure rose 0.4%


From briefing.com:

Personal Income
Actual: 1.0% | B.com Forecast: 0.4% | B.com Cons: 0.5% | Prior: 0.3%

Personal Spending
Actual: 0.2% | B.com Forecast: 0.1% | B.com Cons: 0.2% | Prior: 0.7%

PCE Prices
Actual: 0.3% | B.com Forecast: 0.4% | B.com Cons: 0.4% | Prior: 0.1% | Revised From: 0.2%

PCE Prices - Core
Actual: 0.4% | B.com Forecast: 0.4% | B.com Cons: 0.4% | Prior: 0.1% | Revised From: 0.2%

Key Fed inflation gauge rose 2.8% annually in February, as expected

• The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% on a 12-month basis and was up 0.3% from a month ago, matching estimates.

• Core PCE was up 0.3% for the month and 2.5% at the 12-month rate, compared to estimates for 0.4% and 2.5%.

• Consumer spending shot up 0.8% on the month, well ahead of the 0.5% estimate. Personal income increased 0.3%, slightly softer than the 0.4% estimate.

PCE inflation report February 2024: Key Fed inflation gauge rose 2.8% annually as expected

Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8% in March from a year ago, more than expected

The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was above the 2.7% estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.

Including food and energy, the all-items PCE price gauge increased 2.7%, compared to the 2.6% estimate.

On a monthly basis, both measures increased 0.3%, as expected and equaling the increase from February.

PCE inflation March 2024: Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8%