Could be a reason why people hate the Patriots
Stats show the New England Patriots became nearly fumble-proof after a 2006 rule change pushed by Tom Brady.
I'm starting a new thread for the Super Bowl. I won't be trash talking the Patriots much, because there is a lot of that going around on the media already. Although I am surprised to read about all the haters the Patriots have around the country. I thought Brady was the "other golden boy" besides Payton. Anyway, I just hope that some football fans will give the Seahawks the respect they deserve as a formidable team. They beat the odds every time and come up winners. Let's hope for a clean, fair, and rousing game of football this Sunday.
GO HAWKS !
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Could be a reason why people hate the Patriots
Stats show the New England Patriots became nearly fumble-proof after a 2006 rule change pushed by Tom Brady.
Weatherweenie's Account Talk
Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.
I read that article, interesting.
Proof will be in the results. If, after what are sure to be ball security rule changes in the off season, the Pats turnover stats come back to league normals over the next few years, statistically it could mean something.
In Dog Beers I've only had two.
It seems to me that Belichick is the golden boy not Brady. But then again, I don't care for either team so I'm Switzerland.
THIS IS WHERE I WOULD PUT SOMETHING TO REPRESENT MY THINKING, BUT THEN THEY SHOW UP!
Tracker = Check my position
"Our Constitution was made only for a Moral and Religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the goverment of any other." John Adams 10/11/1798
I dunno about that article. Here's another analysis that shows pretty much the same thing when the Pats return kickoffs -- and those balls are pumped to the max for the kickers. The Pats fumble less than any other team because Belichick benches any back who fumbles the ball and keeps them on the bench sometimes throughout the rest of the season. He also makes them practise with wet and greasy balls all the time. Sounds like "coaching" to me. As far as Patriots hate, that's been around for many years dating even before Spygate -- for two reasons, Belichick's hard to like if you're not a Patriots fan, and some people imvariably just hate winners and success.
"I found this website for data for play by play and the NFL.
Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats): Play-by-Play Data
i downloaded the 2007 - mid 2013 datasets, and analyzed them for kickoff returns/punts.
I found 816 New England return plays that weren't touchbacks or fair catches. I found 10 fumbles on those plays. That's 81 return plays per fumble (error on order +/- 3 fumbles.. so lower bound 62 plays).
I found 24939 non-New England return plays that weren't touchbacks or fair catches, of those 427 resulted in fumbles. That's a rate of 58 return plays per fumble.
So in summary, the Patriots also fumble less on return plays than the league average, though the difference is probably close to the edge of statistical significance.. the measured effect size is about the same.
Given that the balls are over-inflated for kickoffs and not controlled by the patriots, it is impossible for this lower rate of fumbling to be due to under-inflation.
Below is my python code... that I used to run this analysis.
--
import os
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
directory = 'ENTER A DIRECTORY WITH ALL THE CSV FILES HERE'
files = [f for f in os.listdir(directory) if 'csv' in os.path.splitext(f)[1]]
df = None
for file in files:
fullfile = os.path.join(directory,file)
if df is None:
df=pd.read_csv(fullfile)
else:
df=pd.concat([df,pd.read_csv(fullfile)],ignore_index=True)
NEdef = df['def'].str.contains('NE',na=False)
NEoff = df.off.str.contains('NE',na=False)
punts = df.description.str.contains('punts',na=False)
kicks = df.description.str.contains('kicks',na=False)
faircatch = df.description.str.contains('fair catch',na=False)
fumble = df.description.str.contains('FUMBLES',na=False)
touchback = df.description.str.contains('Touchback',na=False)
muff = df.description.str.contains('MUFFS',na=False)
print 'NE def plays',NEdef.sum()
print 'NE off plays',NEoff.sum()
print 'punts',punts.sum()
print 'kicks',kicks.sum()
print 'fumbles',fumble.sum()
print 'muffs',muff.sum()
NEreturns = NEdef & (punts | kicks) & ~faircatch & ~touchback
print 'NEreturns = NEdef & (punts | kicks) & ~touchback & ~faircatch:',NEreturns.sum()
NEreturn_fumbles = NEreturns & fumble
print 'NEreturn & fumble:',NEreturn_fumbles.sum()
notNEreturns = ~NEdef & (punts | kicks) & ~faircatch & ~touchback
print "not NE returns:",notNEreturns.sum()
notNEreturn_fumbles = notNEreturns & fumble
print "not NE returns and fumble:",notNEreturn_fumbles.sum()
print "NE return plays per return fumble:",NEreturns.sum()/NEreturn_fumbles.sum()
print "not NE return plays per return fumble:",notNEreturns.sum()/notNEreturn_fumbles.sum()"
Hear! Hear! Thank you for that KonaKathy. It's a great match-up and should be a great game. The Seahawks are an amazing team and you gotta love the Legion of Boom! But I'm a Pats fan first ... and the Hawks are a really, really scary opponent! There are so many great stories and drama around these two teams right now. (Deflategate aside) It doesn't get any better! I'm just glad the media is starting to talk about the game and the players rather than the footballs. .... Good luck on Sunday!
GO PATS!
I'm just here, so I don't get fined!
God bless the United States of America!
My son has season tickets for Seahawks and went to championship game. I will be pulling for Seattle. The comeback against Green Bay was unbelievable.
hey jpcavin, do we still have a bet? before the rigged seahawks packers wwf championship sideshow, the deal was 1 ounce of fine tspalk silver for me if seattle does not win the superbowl, 1 ounce for you if they do? is that still active?
100g
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