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Thread: NAAIM

  1. #61

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Hovering in the low 50's - still no direction.

    Date NAAIM Number Mean/Average Bearish Quart1 Quart2 Quart3 Bullish Deviation
    11/09/2022 53.33 -100 42.50 52.50 86.25 200 54.63
    11/02/2022 54.57 -100 38.00 60.00 90.00 200 59.48
    10/26/2022 53.91 -50 23.75 50.00 76.25 200 54.08
    10/19/2022 43.28 -40 0.00 42.00 65.00 200 55.43
    10/12/2022 19.84 -100 0.00 5.00 47.50 200 59.65
    10/05/2022 38.11 -80 0.00 40.00 75.00 200 58.96
    09/28/2022 12.61 -150 0.00 9.63 40.00 200 66.88
    09/21/2022 29.59 -100 0.00 20.00 54.00 200 60.97
    09/14/2022 33.86 -122 0.00 40.00 77.50 200 70.46
    09/11/2022 53.33 -100 42.50 52.50 86.25 200 54.63
    09/11/2022 53.33 -100 42.50 52.50 86.25 200 54.63

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  3. #62

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Inching slightly higher
    Date NAAIM Number Mean/Average Bearish Quart1 Quart2 Quart3 Bullish Deviation
    11/16/2022 64.96 -100 45.00 70.00 100.00 200 60.66
    11/09/2022 53.33 -100 42.50 52.50 86.25 200 54.63
    11/02/2022 54.57 -100 38.00 60.00 90.00 200 59.48
    10/26/2022 53.91 -50 23.75 50.00 76.25 200 54.08
    10/19/2022 43.28 -40 0.00 42.00 65.00 200 55.43
    10/12/2022 19.84 -100 0.00 5.00 47.50 200 59.65
    10/05/2022 38.11 -80 0.00 40.00 75.00 200 58.96
    09/28/2022 12.61 -150 0.00 9.63 40.00 200 66.88
    09/21/2022 29.59 -100 0.00 20.00 54.00 200 60.97
    09/14/2022 33.86 -122 0.00 40.00 77.50 200 70.46

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  5. #63

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    From @MarkArbeter

    The NAAIM Index is at 99%, its highest reading since 11/2021. That index can move to the 100%-120% area before the market corrects. But looking back since the index was started in 7/2006, 99% is relatively high -- hit in early 2007, early 2013, late 2013, early 2015, August and December of 2016, September and December of 2017, June 2018, and almost the entire period from 8/2020 until 11/2021.

    Sometimes a high reading leads to a small pullback, other times it can lead to a major correction, and other times it leads to absolutely nothing.


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  7. #64

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    From @MarkArbeter
    His comments are on target and well worth noting. The high reading can persist for weeks to months and the outcome is still anything but certain. And if the market continues to rally despite the high readings, who loses out?

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  9. #65

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    The NAAIM backtest

    In our backtest we make the following rules in plain English (actually it’s two backtests):

    1. Make a 10-week moving average of the NAAIM index.
    2. If the last weekly NAAIM reading is below the 10-week average, stay long S&P 500 the following week. Sell when reading ends up above its average.
    3. If the last weekly NAAIM reading is above the 10-week average, stay long S&P 500 the following week. Sell when reading ends up below its average.
    https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/naaim-strategy/

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  11. #66

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Exposure dropped to the lowest level of the year at 34.9. Rather large drop considering the reading was 101 a month ago.

    Looking back at historical charts, readings in the 20-30 range have marked bottoms.

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  13. #67

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Another weekly drop from 43 to 36.2.

    NAAIM making another run at buy territory in the sub-30's after bouncing in August.

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  15. #68

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    B...can you explain to this layman what you mean. I thought the drop in number was bearish or does that put it into buy territory? Thanks ahead for your insight...
    Eric

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  17. #69

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Every sentiment indicator is contrarian (except for the OEX put/call ratio) which means you do the opposite when the reading is extreme. The thought is if everyone is getting too bearish, it raises the chances of a turn positive.

    When the NAAIM Exposure Index is very low, it indicates that active managers are very bearish and have reduced their exposure to the market, which could signal a market bottom and a potential rally.

    For NAAIM, on October 3, 2022 the reading was below 15. The next week was the bottom. Same for March 16, 2020 reading below 15. The bottom came the next week.

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  19. #70

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    Default Re: NAAIM

    Latest reading 102.7.

    Last time it was this high was November 2021.

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