Thread: Short Term Outlook

Originally Posted by Dave M

Predicting the weather is my business. Do not confuse the weather with the TSP, heh.

CDI, what I had to do was determine how much risk I was willing to shoulder. My answer was to risk only my earnings, not my "principle." Therefore the fraction of my total account balance represented by my personal contributions is safely tucked away in the G-fund. The rest is distributed among several of the funds in order to take advantage of whichever one happens to be rising. Having settled on an allocation, I rebalance it monthly in order that earnings (and hence risk) will be in the same percentages as my allocations: 35G 20C 20S 25I. In other words, I am managing an investment portfolio and not gambling.

If you are relatively new to the TSP then you are in for many years of enjoyment. Baby it along by contributing the MAX while investing it wisely, and 20 years from now you will be swinging a club as big a BT's, ~$1 million.

Good luck!

Dave

Thanks, Dave. I'll follow your advice. But what's the story on the I Fund which was doing so well and now seems to be taking a big dive? I'm trying to figure out exactly what TSP is tracking in Morgan Stanley. I couldn't find Morgan Stanley Capital International (EAFE) in the Yahoo Finance acronyms. On the other hand, I can't figure out where NasDaq is in the TSP funds. I'm trying to learn so that I can make better decisions. Any help is deeply appreciated. I understand the G Fund. A bit confused about the F Fund which is pretty dismal. The C Fund tracks the S & P. The S Fund tracks the Dow. The rest is still somewhat of a mystery. I know the old saw, "Buy low, Sell high." Not much of a gambler, I'm mostly in the G Fund for now.
Claire

The influence os U.S. investors on Tokyo's stock market rise has been especially strong. According to Japan's Finance Ministry, foreign investors bought 1.6 trillion yen (more than $13 billion) worth of Japanese shares in November.

They may be buying still.

The Nikkei Stock Average is up more than 50%, showing the sort of surge commonly seen when investors pile into the hot areas at the end of the year. For Japanese professional investors, the fiscal year doesn't end until March 31. True, there is an enthusiasm (some would say mania) for stocks among individual investors in Japan, but the real force behind this month's rally may reside in the U.S. If that is true, when the New Year wipes fund msanagers' slates clean, and the desperation to but isn't there anymore, stocks in Japan and other hot markets could have a bout of selling.

Dennis

we got a bit or a repreive for a short period of time.....there is good reason to believe that the markets are at a peak and should be turning down for a period....in which I believe will be sometime in April....

Keep vigilant.....

I know we all have been beating down the doors of late to make a few percent....but...I don't think its a good idea to be in any fund other than G at the moment...

But that my opinion....

I believe we should be expecting a 5-10% correction at least and soon ...so don't get caught holding the bag....

U can say you heard it here first....I think the crystal ball I just bought is a good'un......it has newer features than that old one...someone remind me to thank Gilligan for making it essential to buy a newer model.....

CARNAC the MAGNIFICIENT

Tomorrow morning (Friday) at 8:30, we get the GDP estimate. Consensus is for 4.9%. I suppose the sweet spot is just a little less than that number. Anybody got a feel for how high it could go before the market tanks in response?

Boom or Bust time coming!!

12:00 AM ET May 21, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- With all due respect to a couple of important reports on home sales, the most important U.S. economic number of the coming week is likely to be one most people have never heard of: the core personal-consumption expenditure price index.
All you have to know about that mouthful of words is that this is the inflation number the Federal Reserve respects and fears. Forget the consumer-price index; if the Fed were to target inflation, the core PCE price index would be the target, not the CPI.
The Commerce Department will report on the core PCE price index on Friday morning, as part of its income and spending release. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are forecasting a 0.2% increase in core inflation after a 0.3% gain in March.

Actually, the whole story is worth reading.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...eid=mktw&dist=

When I got up this morning, lotsa commentators were saying "watch 1258 for the S&P". It can always turn around but right now is under 1255. Suppose it closes like this?

I am not a big fan of technical analysis, but that comes mostly from my ignorance. If a major support level fails to hold, what does that really mean for the next few days? Can one really predict further market moves on something like this? One article I read compared technical anaysis to numerology or astrology, with no better long-term track record. Anyone here think that failure to hold support is a major factor in their own investment choices over the next day or so?

Originally Posted by Pilgrim

Can one really predict further market moves on something like this? One article I read compared technical anaysis to numerology or astrology, with no better long-term track record. Anyone here think that failure to hold support is a major factor in their own investment choices over the next day or so?

No one can predict.....
Support and resistance are zones not a concrete number.
All technical analysis methods simply read and try to project future outcomes.
You do not trade the markets...you trade your beliefs about the market.

SPX-My beliefs are we almost have 5(may be intraday low 5/23) waves down and divergence in RSI..almost over.
good luck

Weak support at 64 and 63.

Strong support at 60.

It will probably at least retest 63.

Friday looking really risky. Who's gonna play?

By Dr. Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:30 AM ET May 23, 2006

"Headline inflation, as measured by the producer and the consumer price indexes, has been more than expected, while the "core," or underlying, rate of inflation has been creeping up as well.

Speaking of which, the markets are holding their breath until the release of the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, the core PCE index, scheduled to come out this Friday.

Given what's been happening elsewhere, there's a good chance that this measure will inch up above the range that the Fed and its new chairman, Ben Bernanke, are said to be willing to tolerate."
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...teid=mktw&dist=