Thread: Home Prices

Home prices are going to have to come down for people to afford a 7.5% 30 year mortgage payment.

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https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/st...943409107325?s

Some economists believe that the housing boom of the 1920s contributed to the overall economic instability that preceded the 1923 crash. Fueled by easy credit and a surge in speculative investment, home prices in the US rose by an average of 40% between 1921 and 1925 before crashing in 1926.

100 years later, and home prices need to come down. Chart below shows how unsustainable this is.

A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget has lost nearly $40,000 in purchasing power over the last year, as mortgage rates have risen from around 6.5% in October 2022 to nearly 8% today.

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https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-...s-hold-steady/

30-year mortgage now at 7.9%.

In 2021, a $500,000 30-year mortgage would have cost $1,972 per month at the available 2.8% mortgage rate. With a 7.9% rate today, that payment would be $3,488 — a 77% increase.

Buyers look at one thing when they buy - the monthly mortgage cost. Low rates, tax write offs and first time home buyer credits created artificial increases in price that have yet to budge lower. How much longer can this go on without a large drop in home prices?

Originally Posted by Bullitt

30-year mortgage now at 7.9%.

In 2021, a $500,000 30-year mortgage would have cost $1,972 per month at the available 2.8% mortgage rate. With a 7.9% rate today, that payment would be $3,488 — a 77% increase.

Buyers look at one thing when they buy - the monthly mortgage cost. Low rates, tax write offs and first time home buyer credits created artificial increases in price that have yet to budge lower. How much longer can this go on without a large drop in home prices?

Back in 2019 that $500,000 house was probably $220,000. In 2012 I refinanced my 30 year mortgage to a 15 year mortgage for 2.9%.

So here's just a generic real estate question before I find a realtor forum of some sort......
So, I want to move, but I'm in no rush. It's just me......no family to consider.
Been poking around on Zillow for almost a year, just lookin. One thing I've noticed that's consistent is that right before they list, they jack the price up 100 to 200K.
Below is just such a typical sales / price chart that can be seen on each listing.
I'm not much for playing a bunch of "Pricing" games. I'm happy to pay whatever current market value is, but not your greedy 200K listing markup. I hate that........ Price gouging greedy bastards.
I'm sure at some point I'll have to work with a realtor, or just go with a new home through a home builder.
It's just frustrating. ​UGGHHH.....

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Looks like a bubble to me. Insane!

I've bought, lived in, remodeled, & sold two homes, both in 2009 & 2019. While I did make a nice profit, it was mostly sold for the going market value, and I know the labor I invested was essentially given for free. As a kid I remember in the 1980s seeing a boat-load of empty VA houses in my neighborhood. Part of me wonders if we will re-visit those times in 12-18 months....

As for scalpers, my ex-Sister-in-law tried to scalp her Vegas house just before the 2008 housing crash. The whole market went to ****, she defaulted & burned her credit...

Jack the prices up before going up for sale so it looks like the agents involved have brokered a major deal. This is also explained by the endowment effect. People tend to value items that they own more highly than they would if the item did not belong to them.

Epic, in your case, check other websites that give price estimates and make comparisons. Unless there's gold buried somewhere on that property, something looks wrong there.

I feel like I'm going to be a forever renter.

46 and no home. I live in the DC region so homes are always expensive.

Whenever I'm retired I figure I'll move somewhere else that has a lower cost of living.

Originally Posted by Bullitt

Epic, in your case, check other websites that give price estimates and make comparisons. Unless there's gold buried somewhere on that property, something looks wrong there.

Yeah, I hear ya. I'd say I see the price get jacked like that right before listing on about 7 out of 10 properties that I look at. It's most likely just a trend to get more money, but I just want to buy a house for a fair price, and not pretend that I'm on Pawn Stars or American Pickers having to haggle on a price when we all know what the fair market value is.
I think I can work it so I can make it a Cash Buy also, so that should work in my favor.
I just need a larger (more land) place so I can have a shop, but property taxes where I'm at are high (Md. suburbs) at 1%. I can get 3 acres with a small rancher in WV, and only pay .5% (half) in property tax.
I'll find it sooner or later...... No rush..... Just gonna keep looking.

In my area I know the homes are going higher than what you might see on Zillow or the county auditor web page. The funny thing is there are some homes that are being offered 5-10% more than the listed price because a couple of people are bidding on it.