Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Good afternoon

Similar to last week: Of the CSI Funds, the S-Fund has the highest average-of-gains, but also has the worst average-of-losses, adding to this it currently has the lowest 27-day win ratio, but the average gains are inline with the other 2 funds.

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On the 1-27 day performance scale, the C-Fund had the smallest losses for the days highlighted in red.

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Our Top-300 are 61% allocated to the C-Fund while the Bottom-300 are 47% allocated to the S-Fund.

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For myself, I’m back in the C-Fund. Per the usual theme this year, I lost a 1.97% edge to the C-Fund during the 8 sessions I was in the G-Fund.

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Have a great Memorial Weekend…Jason

Minor observation

While last weeks bearish outside day startled the markets, the weekly chart tells a different story.

Here we have 4 weeks of higher highs with 5 weeks of higher lows.
In the meantime the 52-week linear regression channel shows we aren't that far above the fair value center-line.

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On the 11-session scale a gap up has gained 2.95% while a gap down has lost -5.08%. Mon/Wed/Thur have below average win ratios, with Thursday as the largest loser. Our last 3 Tuesday & 5 Friday closed up.

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On the 27-session scale it’s somewhat reversed that of the 11-session timeframe. Thursday has been the largest gainer with Tuesday as the largest loser.

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Setting The Tone: June

I've been out of town this week, so my participation in the markets has been limited.

Anyhow, today is our last session of May. As it stands, on the weekly chart (not shown) we'll likely close with both a lower weekly high & low, thus last week's outside daily reversal was confirmed. But on positive note, for the 52-Week and 63-Day linear regression channels, we are close to the fair value middle line (line of best fit), so prices are on track (neither oversold nor overbought).

While June is my least favorite month, there isn't much here to get me alarmed. Even a healthy -5% pullback is still above the Mar/Apr/May monthly lows, those are the key levels I'm most concerned with.

Of Note, on Thursday SPX lost -.60%, the Top-50 ETF XLG lost -1.26%, while R2K closed up 1%. Is this the small cap rotation we've been waiting for?

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Across the past 27-Sessions the C & I Funds are nearly neck-in-neck with a slight edge towards the C-Fund.

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Comparing the CSI Funds, our I-Fund is winning across the past 7-Sessions.

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In Total, the Top-600 is 73% invested in the C-Fund Vs. 9% in the I-Fund

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For myself, this will be the first time this year starting out the month fully invested in the C-Fund. Our C-Fund has an 8.26% lead over me. The only way to reduce this lead will be an in-an-out IFT (which hasn't worked for me this year) but I do love a good challenge.

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BLOG: Stats for June

On the 11-session scale, gap downs at the open (vs. the close) have been very reliable, with an 81.8% loss ratio & total loss of -5.58%.

Mon/Wed/Thur have a 3-way tie with a 45.5% win ratio, Thursday gave us the largest 11-session loss with -.86%, with the last 3 closing down.

Tue/Fri have a 63.6% win ratio, with Friday giving us the largest 11-session gain with 2.05%. The last 4 Tuesdays & 6 Fridays have closed up.

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On the longer 27-session scale Thur/Fri are good, Tue/Wed are bad.

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Post #2

There are a handful of times (usually once a year) where we get a surge of volume with a confirming candlestick, (across several major indexes).

Last Wednesday the Transportation Index put in the heaviest volume since March 2022 and since then has 2 higher closes. Friday’s higher close overshadowed 7 days worth of price action.

On Friday the NASDAQ 100 put in the heaviest volume since March 2024’s Options Expiration. The long tail down comprised 90% of the candlestick.

On Friday the S&P 500 put in the heaviest volume since March 2024’s Options Expiration. The long tail down comprised 58% of the candlestick.

In totality this is usually an excellent setup for buyers.

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The chart below shows us that while only 46% of the index's holdings closed positive, it was the heavier weighted Top-50 which kept us in the green on Tuesday.

If you haven't read my analysis on Gap and IFT data, here's the latest 100 sessions.

BLOG: Not the norm

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Here’s Lou, my new trading partner, an 8 year old Terrier mutt who has survived through two shelters and is now relaxing at his third (and final) home.


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On Wednesday The S&P 500’s Top-10 earned .77% of the index's 1.18% gain. While the bulk of gains did come from the Top-10, participation was broad with 64% of the index's 503 holdings closing the day with a gain.

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June 2024 MTD Day-3 closed 1.45% which places us in the upper 33%. Here are some statistical MTD projections for the next 3 sessions and the end of month.

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This June, MTD data goes back the full 63 years to 1961. In the table at the bottom of the chart the data is broken down into three 21-year increments.

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Lou looks like a cool dude. Congrats!