Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Good morning

Our 27-Day win ratio is 37% this is the lowest reading since 7-Sep-2023
Upside gaps are unreliable, the last 4 gaps up closed the session down.
Monday Stinks, last 9 of 11 down.

11-Session View
20240422-1.png

27-Session View
20240422-2.png

Have fun….Jason

Good morning

Tomorrow I'll head back to Europe, so please don't break the markets while I'm gone

The Fibonacci range from the 5-Jan-2024 low shows we’ve retraced half of this year’s gains.
Last Friday the 3rd Standard Deviation on the 63-Day Linear Regression Channel was tagged.
Tuesday we closed back above the March Low.

20240424-1.png

Safe travels.

Good Evening

On the 27-day timeframe our CSI win ratios are below average.

20240428-1.png

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On the 1-27 day performance scale, we are starting to see some green in the shorter timeframes.

20240428-2.png

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Per the usual trends this year, the Top-300 hold the C-Fund, and the Bottom-300 are predominantly in the G & S funds.

20240428-3.png

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For myself, I’ve been invested in the CSI funds (timewise) 26% of the time, and with a goal of 80%, I have some work to do here. I have to admit that timing IFTs and allocations is far more difficult (for me) than a regular trading account, but part of the fun is knowing you have room for improvement.

20240428-4.png

Have a great Sunday…Jason

Good morning

Although it may not feel like it, last week’s 2.67% gain was the best of the past 25 weeks.

For the short-term across 11 sessions each, sellers are in control with the last 7 of 11 sessions having closed down. Overall, it’s been best to buy on Monday and sell on Wednesday or Thursday.

20240429-1.png

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For the medium-term across 27 sessions each, sellers are in control with the last 15 of 27 sessions having closed down. Overall, it’s been best to buy on Monday and sell on Thursday.

For Buyers:
An opening gap down has given a 85% chance of closing the day down.
On Monday, the last 13 of 27 have closed down, giving us a 48% loss ratio.
Combined, an opening gap down with a Monday has a 52% loss ratio.

For Sellers:
An opening gap up has given a 59% chance of closing the day up.
Thursday has a 67% win ratio.
Combined, an opening gap up with a Thursday has a 63% win ratio.

20240429-2.png

Cheers...Jason

Originally Posted by JTH

Although it may not feel like it, last week’s 2.67% gain was the best of the past 25 weeks.

Wow.... That certainly is an eye opening piece of information there.
Can't say enough good things about your meticulous record keeping and tracking all of this type of information, and then sharing it with all of us. Otherwise, I'd have no idea. Much appreciated ! ! !

Originally Posted by Epic

Wow.... That certainly is an eye opening piece of information there.
Can't say enough good things about your meticulous record keeping and tracking all of this type of information, and then sharing it with all of us. Otherwise, I'd have no idea. Much appreciated ! ! !

Thank you, I did here it somewhere on a CNBC podcast and had just remembered this morning to check the stats for myself. I certainly wouldn't have thought last week was impressive, but then again I'm still thinking of the gaping hole I've been buying into this past month.

Over the past 7-sessions, we've just now recovered 50% of the 14-session -5.91% decline, so we are teetering in the fuzzy zone...

I concur! Thanks, JTH!

Originally Posted by Epic

Wow.... That certainly is an eye opening piece of information there.
Can't say enough good things about your meticulous record keeping and tracking all of this type of information, and then sharing it with all of us. Otherwise, I'd have no idea. Much appreciated ! ! !

Originally Posted by JTH

Good morning

Tomorrow I'll head back to Europe, so please don't break the markets while I'm gone

The Fibonacci range from the 5-Jan-2024 low shows we’ve retraced half of this year’s gains.
Last Friday the 3rd Standard Deviation on the 63-Day Linear Regression Channel was tagged.
Tuesday we closed back above the March Low.

20240424-1.png

Thanks for all your input.
I’m a F/T programmer and I don’t have the patience to make judgments upon your input.c
Please simplify your work ASAP
Thanks
D

Originally Posted by dannyboy

Thanks for all your input.
I’m a F/T programmer and I don’t have the patience to make judgments upon your input.c
Please simplify your work ASAP
Thanks
D

So I'm gonna need some assist on this. Are looking for a clear buy/sell signal based on the consolidation of this data? Or are you thinking the data provided is too disjointed to make an accurate assessment.

20240429-3.png