Thread: JTH's Account Talk

Good morning

Looking at the last 11 of each:

The Last 8 of 11 Gaps down closed the day down.
The Last 8 of 11 Mondays have closed down.
The last 9 of 11 Thursdays have closed up.

20240415-1.png

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And here's the last 27 of each.

20240415-2.png

Have a great week….Jason

Good morning

For stats, I typically try to post closing data, but I've been traveling, so I'm a bit late.

Here's our current April MTD stats withing a 63-Year April historical range.
... From 1961 April has closed down 17 of 63 times.
... At our current -3.65% MTD (If we closed the month now) it would rank as the 7th worst of 63.
... If I traded IFTs on this data only (and only April's time range), this is where I'd buy more.

20240416-1.png

Originally Posted by JTH

If I traded IFTs on this data only, this is where I'd buy more.

Thy will be done.

Post 2

Our Closing price over the 50-SMA win streak has eneded at 110 sessions, the 3rd best since 2003.

20240416-2.png

IFT EoB Today

From 50G/50C to 10G/90C

Bring on the pain....

20240416-3.png

I like it but, Chiflada

Originally Posted by WorkFE

I like it but, Chiflada

Well, it if get worse, then I'll have 10% to add in next month.

Good morning

25 Weeks off the Oct-2023 bottom shows the Linear Regression Channel has pierced Standard Deviation 3. Although I have no way of proving this, the longer the data/time used, the more reliable the statistical range of price to the mean are.

Per the Google: The Empirical Rule states that 99.7% of data observed following a normal distribution lies within 3 standard deviations of the mean. Under this rule, 68% of the data falls within one standard deviation, 95% percent within two standard deviations, and 99.7% within three standard deviations from the mean.

In theory, the chart below should imply we are very oversold, within this range of both price & time. I should add the disclaimer, this bull run (with little retracement) is not the norm, so we may not see normal results.

20240417-1.png

Good morning

Looking at the 63-year YTD statistical range, this Wednesday we closed 5.31% YTD. By this perspective, we are still above the 63-year average YTD for April (the yellow line).

March was well out of bounds, so perhaps this is just an equalization of sorts. You'll notice, April to June are flat...

20240418-1.png

Good morning

16 sessions off the peak, we've pulled back just over -5%, here's the 30-minute view.

20240419-1.png

Good morning (post 2)

You may notice on the left side of the chart, I've annotated the previous 3 months of lows, this month we've pierced the 5-March low, and soon we may fill the most obvious lower open gap at 4983.21

20240419-2.png

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Each daily session the index closed positive 54% of the time, so this is what I focus on, but for fun....

Today we are working on (potentially) our 6th consecutive close down. From 2002-2022 across 5,287 sessions and 2,435 negative sessions, a 6th negative close has happened 24 times which is about .45% of all sessions.

20240419-3.png