Historically, the large-cap U.S. equity benchmark SPX has seen its performance in the first five trading days and over the full year correlate in the same direction 69% of the time, based on Dow Jones Market Data going back to 1950.
In election years, that correlation took place 83% of the time. The trend has also held true in eight of the last 12 years, and in 14 of the last 16 presidential election years.
This year, the S&P 500 is on pace to log a 1.8% decline over its first four trading days, according to FactSet data. The last time the index fell 1% or more in its first five trading days of the year, in 2022, it lost 19.44% for the full year.
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