TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

This week, the stock market experienced significant volatility, with the S-fund seeing notable shifts in both gains and losses. As the S-fund concluded a remarkable five-day rally, investors faced a critical decision point when the fund's trajectory reversed mid-week. This report delves into the S-fund's performance, investor responses, and strategic adjustments within the TSP Talk AutoTracker, offering insights to help you navigate these unpredictable market conditions.
...

This week saw a major shift in the pecking order of TSP funds. The S-fund, typically overshadowed by the C-fund, delivered a stellar return, vastly outperforming its peers. This blog dives into the factors behind this change, explores how investors reacted, and analyzes what it might mean for your TSP strategy moving forward. We'll also discuss the recent outperformance of the I-fund and the potential impact of the rate cut anticipation.

S-fund investors' patience paid ...

The shortened week with a Jobs Report at the end was profitable for some while disappointing for others. The June Jobs report was favorable to those betting on a September rate cut. The U.S. added 206,000 jobs, slightly beating expectations, yet unemployment ticked higher to 4.1%; the first time since 2021 that unemployment was greater than 4.0%.

The report showed strength in the economy while the unemployment may give the Federal Reserve what they want to go ahead with ...

The S-fund outperformed the C-fund for second straight week and TSP investors are noticing.

The S-fund accumulated a gain of 0.94% for the week, but those gains were due to a late week surge that was exclusive to the S-fund. Through Wednesday, the S-fund was down 0.20% for the week and was overshadowed by the C-fund’s 0.25% gain in those same three days. But over the next two days the S-fund gained 1.15% while the C-fund lost 0.31%.


Here are ...

S-fund holders received relief this week. Seemingly modest, the S-fund's 0.8% gain this week was its first positive week since the week ending May 17^th. It was also the first week the S-fund outperformed the C-fund since the week ending May 4^th.

The C-fund produced better daily returns than the S-fund in the first three days of the shortened week, but the S-fund topped the C-fund for the week when it had a positive return Friday while the C-fund took a modest loss.
...