TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

The personal-consumption expenditures price index (PCE) results went public during the market's day off on Friday. The PCE landed right in line with expectations with a yearly climb of 2.5%. The market typically likes predictability, but this inflation data did little to change the projections for a rate cut in June. In fact, the chances of a rate-cut in June are down from a week earlier.

The market celebrated the Fed’s message in the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting when they left three rate cuts in 2024 as a possibility. At the end of 2023 the market expected the FOMC to first cut rates in March, but strong inflation data continues to kick those first cuts down the road and now the market’s sights are on a June rate cut. Still Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says they are in no hurry to cut rates but are waiting for more inflation and economic data to guide their decision. Friday’s PCE may have come in line with expectations, but the market’s probability of a rate cut in June has dropped 12% from a week earlier.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending March 28:




March was a good month to be in stocks. All three of the TSP stock funds ended March with a gain over 3%. The I-fund gave the best return among them with its 3.36% gain, only 0.03% higher than the S-fund’s return. Twenty-six TSP Talk AutoTracker members were able to outperform the I-fund in March. That coalition of market maneuverist was led by flyer_one who accumulated a 5.4% return using two IFTs in March.

Among the top five performers in March, one member used one IFT in March while the other four used two IFTs in March. All five members were winners of the March TSP Talk AutoTracker Contest and eligible for prizes.

Want to join the fun? Start your TSP Talk AutoTracker account for free and join a communtiy of TSP investors.

The TSP Talk Premium Service Intrepid came in at 9^th place in the March standings. The TSP Talk Plus system was also among the leaders in March coming in at 22 among the nearly 1000 participants.


Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Talk Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk - Market Commentary. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.

Thomas Crowley
(TommyIV)
www.tsptalk.com
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.