JTH

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April 2024 was a stinker. Compared with the previous 63, this April 2024 ranked as 5th worst of 64 with a -4.16% loss. It was a tough month with 13 of 22 trading days closing down, and every MTD session closed in the red.

Adding to this, our 110 sessions above the 50 day simple moving average (the 3rd best over 21 years) was breached with our last 12 sessions closing below this (closely watched) SMA.

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Still, ...

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March 2024 was yet another phenomenal month. Compared with the previous 63, this March 2024 ranked 21 of 64 with a 3.10% monthly gain.

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While it's still too early to make a call, based on YTD data (31 years filtered) we might speculate (or project) a yearly 96.8% win ratio with an average gain of 18.58%.

___The chart below shows where we currently fall within the 63-year historical YTD range. Here we can ...

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Here's a yearly projection, followed by a March Projection, capped off with a 9-day word of caution.

February 2024 was a phenomenal month, across the previous 63 years from 1961:

This Feb ranked as the 7th best of 64 Februaries with a 5.17% monthly gain.
Jan & Feb together rank as the 13th best of 64 with a 6.84% YTD gain.

While not a quarterly stat, at 11.57% this Dec/Jan/Feb together rank as the 9th best ...

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Generally speaking it was an average middle of the road January. Ranking 33rd of 63, this January closed up 1.59%, our MTD intra-high ranked 26th at 3.92% and our MTD intra-low ranked 23rd best at -1.33%.



While we did close Jan above the average of closes, thus far this quarter we are under-performing this same metric on the weekly chart for the 1st quarter averages. Further reading can be found in the Stats for Q1 Blog. ...

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TLDR: When The C-Fund closes up, the FSI Funds are more likely to close up. When The C-Fund closes down, the FSI Funds are less likely to close down.

Since I consider our C-Fund to be the standard by which all other funds should be measured, I thought it would be a good time to measure the correlation of the funds. Simply put, how often do the FSI funds trade in the same direction or against the C-Fund. For this study I've chosen to use 11, 27, 55, & 101 sessions, ...