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Fund share prices as of: 9/25/07
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Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)
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A couple of corrections Stocks were flat to slightly down yesterday after rallying back from an early morning sell-off. We appear to be in the middle of a pullback that I believe could set us up for the next buying opportunity. On Monday I had said: "Last year, the week following options expiration week (OEW) in September was quite positive with the Dow up about 170 points for the week, but that was bucking the trend. September's post OEW has a poor track record, and the Monday of post OEW is particularly bad when the Friday of OEW is as positive as this past Friday was. When the S&P is up on expiration week Friday as much as we were, the following Monday was positive only 3 of 14 times since the bull market began in the fall of 2002." That first sentence was inaccurate. Looking at a calendar from last year, September 1, 2006 was on a Friday, which actually made post OEW September 18 - 22nd rather than September 25 - 29th as I originally thought. So, even the strong rally last fall could not keep September's historically weak post-OEW positive. The Dow was down 50 points rather than up 170 as I first reported. That 170 point rally came the following week. I'll get the next week later. The other correction or clarification I want to make comes from yesterday's commentary when I said: "Today Fred talks about the recent "pile-up" formation that has developed on the Summed Volume NYSE chart. This has been a good indicator for timing big moves (+1% or more) in the market, although it doesn't give the direction." I should have said, "This has been a good indicator for timing big moves (+/- 1% or more)" because as I mentioned, we don't know the direction of that move. Even though the market made a nice little comeback yesterday, the pullback pattern has begun to form. The flat top we see after the recent rally stalled, is typically met with a pullback as you see across the one year chart. I am still looking for a move to at least 1490 on the downside, and worst case 1450.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com But this market is looking healthy and I don't want to miss out again. The last week in September is generally weak historically, but early October is quite strong. If we can get a pullback out of the way this week I will feel a lot better about getting back into the stock funds for next week.  Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com I sure hope that the Ebbchart and Trader Fred are on the same page with my theory. The EbbChart System is in the I-fund today but it is making an interfund transfer this morning. If you missed it yesterday, there was a change made to the initial, signal given for Thursday. It's all explained on the EbbChart page. Trader Fred's TSP Trader System is in the G-fund today. The "pile-up" formation continues on Summed Volume NYSE chart and we are due for a big release one direction or the other. Read more about it on Fred's system page. That's all for today. I am currently 100% G-fund. I'm looking for a pullback to somewhere in the area of 1450 to 1490 on the S&P 500 to get invested again. See you tomorrow. Have questions? Visit our message board for answers.
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