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Fund share prices as of: 7/19/07
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Today's Comments (Short Term Outlook)
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Sideways Stocks rallied yesterday, and the S&P 500 jumped right back into the recent tight range after surviving Wednesday's sell-off. That sell-off bottomed out at a very clean support area - the breakout point of last week's big rally. Resistance, once broken, tends to act as support.  Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com The S&P has now closed in the 1546 to 1553 range for six straight days. Even though we are due for a larger move in one direction or the other, more often than not the market is not very volatile during Friday's option expiration trading. Many times that move won't make an appearance until the following Monday. Of course there are always exceptions, and with the current 6-day "pile-up", as Trader Fred calls it, this could be one of them. Four big companies reported earnings after the close yesterday - Google, Microsoft, AMD, and Capital One - and in after hours trading it is a mixed bag. The tech darling, Google, disappointed while the chip maker AMD's report was met with strong buying. The early futures trading shows the S&P and Nasdaq down modestly. The NYSE overbought/oversold indicator is about dead neutral, as is the OEX put / call ratio indicator. Not much to go on. The AAII Investor's Sentiment Survey came in at a neutral 42% bulls to 37% bears, 1.15 to 1 ratio. There is still an amazing lack of bullishness coming from the herd while the Dow is hitting 14,000 for the first time. Very strange, and that could be what is keeping the market afloat. The TSP Talk Sentiment Survey was more bullish with the bulls coming in at 57% and the bears at 28% for a 2.04 to 1 bulls to bears ratio. That keeps that system on a sell signal for next week. It is not unusual for this system to be on the wrong side of the trade, but this is the longest the market has continued to move higher while this system has been on a sell signal. The EbbChart System continues to impress as it was picking up gains in the F-fund while stocks were down Wednesday, then moved back into the I-fund Thursday in time to gain another nearly 1%. That put the system at +19.12% for the year. It will be in the I-fund today as well but where is it head to next? Read more on the ebbchart page. Trader Fred's TSP Trader System remains on a sell signal as it is still sniffing out a weak period. That 1% move he has talked about is now overdue. We have not gone more than 5 days before - since the system began tracking this pile-up phenomenon, without an unleashing of the pile-up. You can read what trader Fred has to say today on the TSP Trader System page. Something is brewing out there but whether that is a big rise or fall, I don't know. This market has been very powerful and has tossed aside all bad news that has come its way. It will probably continue to do so - that is until it doesn't. Obviously, one day it will move down. So far this year both the Ebbchart System and the TSP Trader System have managed to be out of the stock funds when we've had large drops. Let's hope we are warned again when stocks do eventually correct. That's all I have today. Enjoy your weekend!
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